저자: Tom · 외국인
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미국 증시가 공포지수 25 하회 후 박스권에서 횡보 중이며 중요 뉴스(ECB 회의, 금요일 미국 CPI)를 앞두고 방향성 확인이 필요하다고 진단. 미국 2년·10년 금리 상승은 증시에 부담 요인이며, 달러인덱스는 중립, 금은 역헤드앤숄더 돌파 후 상대적 강세로 봄. 테슬라·애플은 역헤드앤숄더 형태로 조정 후 반등 가능성 언급. 비트코인은 32,000달러 돌파 전까지 중립~하락으로 평가.
다듬은 글
hello everybody and welcome back to another there's so much to discuss but in general we have a whole bunch of big news ahead and on top of that we also have rising rates that is the u.s two year and ten year causing some bearish concerns in these markets in terms of structure and what we're seeing on the biggest market in the world the stock market lower highs are really showing that the commitment of the buyers has been weaker each time we've hit our defended zone but we've been pretty good at navigating this together over the last couple of weeks and for now the trend is still up on the small time frames but things are about to change so expect a big move ahead of potentially some massive news coming out later on this week well hello everybody and welcome back to the show where we discuss stocks cryptos and commodities daily this is for the close of the market 8th of june 2022 and if you like any of our content remember to subscribe and smash that like button if you find value in today's video we'll begin with the fear and grade index still a fear reading still a lot of fear around though that has been rising up over the recent weeks is it time for the bears to come back and crash this market we'll take a look at that later for the last 24 hours of trade it was really mostly red with semiconductors taking a bit of a battering but we did see a little bit of strength in energy and of course tesla held for the session this meant that major indices around the world the stock markets in the us were mostly just opening up and then they closed at basically a neutral zone we'll take a look at the deeper dive smaller time frames later but the russell 2000 showed a negative that was the one that was showing a little bit of a positive and then it dropped one and a half percent while the rest of the markets were flat sector-wise as we mentioned it was energy metals were doing the worst usually when the us 10 year and two year rise we do see metals and energy both do well and this was a bit of a surprise but you know they did drop and the sector did not perform for the day it was mostly a mixture of really a mix match there wasn't any defensive or any particular growth that was doing well you can see it here was mostly just risk off in general let's talk about the market charts though let's get into the vix the fear index as many people see it now we know every five levels super important that is the 25 level the 30 and the 35 i love the 35 from a capitulation zone in the future and we always use that as a first touch but now that we're through the 25 does this mean that the market is going down to 20 on the fear and that we could still be seeing a lot of bullish action i think this is probably i would say first tick for the bulls at this stage a lowering vix means that there's a good chance that the mix will try to come back down to something like the 20.
that could coincide with certain s p 500 levels such as the 4300 as well so we'll call that tick one for the bulls at this stage and a lot of you will say yeah but tom the bix can go up any time when the market crashes of course it can let's move over to the dxy this is where things come a little bit more muddled you'll notice that over here we changed our opinion on the dollar index being negative and started to go towards the bullish side at this point i'd call a dollar index neutral we have a defended zone going through this area that is a buying demand zone if that gets breached certain time frames on the smaller time frames will change to the downside but the big one is actually here and you might have to wait a while at this point for the dollar index to really change trend if it went underneath this zone though get ready for dollar index to get crunched again and at that point of course what would we expect a big bull in the stock markets quite far away at this stage and most of the smaller like medium term time frame trends are currently up so we could expect even further bullish pressure here on the dxy be very careful i would say more neutral probably not trading the dollar index for the next couple of sessions ahead of the ecb especially on the thursday session u.s tenure this is the story of everyone discussing if you read the news right now they'll just crap on about this and they'll talk about the us 10 year and two year look always important we understand that at the markets are very sensitive to the us 10 year and two year they always are and both have been rising steadily in fact we're about to make a new u.s two-year peak and if this happens what does it tend to do with the market well it's not good if the market goes up and the us two year goes up that usually shows a false move last time when we saw that rally that happened through march we had a stagnation in the us two year then it started rising it was too much for the market and overall it obviously fell so at this point we need the us two year to turn and this would be of course a big point here for the bears saying well look at this look at this two year i'm starting to get more bearish on markets it's fair enough and it's a good thesis and story to be of course told let's move over to gold now now things become a little bit clearer here gold potentially an inverse head and shoulders left shoulder head right shoulder break of the neckline and then re-test back down and that's very normal we know that this level is most likely holding orders or was holding orders because you can tell the interaction with the zone it swept those orders and then grabbed them and then moved back down a nasty trap by wall street or the composite man right there so this is an area of a supply that has now been broken we would expect gold to generally perform well but of course at the same time you'll need dxy to go down so gold looking a little bit more bullish inside of an overall bullish movement that still hasn't breached outside of this top end so we've got the big heavy like hitters in terms of the resistance and the big heavy hitter in terms of the support and at this stage you can see with this doji we're reaching a point of the middle of this zone but it looks a little bit more bullish than bearish you're bullish or bearish on gold at the moment u.s oil continues it's ran run higher and it's been doing pretty well recently those two tweezers were hard to ignore in the last session even i couldn't ignore them and i said you know that looks pretty good and at this point it's coming up here to that 124 level will this be the peak for oil and we'll see a drop off a lot of it's going to come down to the us2 year in tenure if the tenure keeps rising oil could keep going up and up and up and away so be careful there 20 moving average as well on the daily you'll notice has been a very big pickup so if a close happens underneath the 20 it could also show you that the bears have back in oil so for now it's still bullish and as you know i'm personally fairly neutral on this market but i have other reasons to be there if you're looking at the pure price action it's up let's move over to tesla tesla on the weekly here you'll notice how it looks then we start to drive down into something like the hour of the daily and you'll notice the daily here shows a sign of a potential inverse head and shoulders a decent day for tesla considering the market it did hold up and it still has a little bit of work to do remember it still hasn't filled this gap that it's left over here so tesla holding base if the market is able to turn around which at the time this recording is getting pushed down a little bit lower a little bit lower than you would hope for then there's a real case here to be said that maybe we need to move back to that gap fill that gap fill will get us to around 775 770 area and then at that point if we breach through that zone of course we take the inverse head and shoulders there and we would say okay let's take that distance let's take the neckline extrapolate that out and that will give us our previous kind of highs over here i still think 950 though would be a monstrous level for tesla and you've got to be careful very much so around this if it does end up going bullish definitely subscribe to the channel we'll be covering tesla and apple in more detail over the recent weeks apple the other one inverse head and shoulders as well potential here no breach out yet you can see the the sloped neckline here for this one nice consolidation not a great session for it it was down 0.5 percent not really negative either i would say and there's still the gap that's there it kind of filled i mean i like to go week to week so i'd say it got pretty close to filling and yes it's it's in general done a pretty okay job we've got base formation down here which is where you see defense you've got a bit of defensive orders around this area here which is just so you guys know 147 30 and around 140 430 and both of these areas will be important for apple this bottom one here very important to keep the trend in the bullish side and for now apple still looks relatively bullish let's check the markets around the world this is where things changed in the last 24 hours we saw the dax get hit pretty badly the dax actually fell substantially down it's still in the coil range but dax has been stronger generally than the other markets around the world and this is the german market for anyone that's never seen it or looked at it before so we've got a coiling market here still the inverse head and shoulders a lot of inverse head and shoulders you'll notice and at this point it's still in the bullish case scenario though it's coming up to a point where you wouldn't want to see it much more underneath this which is sitting around that 14 kind of three so hopefully it can hold through this next session ecb press conference all these types of things coming up these meetings will mean a lot to the rest because it'll show us one of the biggest economies in the world and the central bank policy changes that they're making as we mentioned iwm led in the previous session and then it declined in this session is that good or positive or negative it's mostly negative but if you look at the russell and i'll bring up the futures market just so you can see this at this point it's been making a new peak and of course we have previous troughs or previous lows before that so this will hold a lot of orders around this area sitting around the 1830 zone for the russell a big key point moving forward and then we've got another defended area around that 1868 so i think both this area here in the next 24 hours and this area here leading into friday are going to be very important on something like the russell well worthwhile having on seeing how the market interacts with that and sometimes the russell leads the other markets because the small caps they react very heavily and as we know funds have to be remain invested so what they often do is they dump the growth stocks they dump the small ones and they jump into the big caps because they always have to remain invested and that means that the small ones lead the way they let us up remember in the previous video we did we talked about that they can also lead us all the way back down nasdaq still holding this big 12 500 470 zone if we move over to the futures market at the time of recording you'll notice it's coming into that area so coming into that that bottom kind of area or zone down here and this is again going to be a very interesting day trade because it looks like the market's coming into the support looking towards this big news coming out of europe and then it will decide whether it's prepared to short through or whether it's prepared to go long back into the top end ranges so all of these markets seem to be going towards these critical levels ahead of the big news that's coming out thursday morning before the us open let's also talk about s p 500 s p 500 currently coiling in the range the trend is still up and as i think we all know this you know the trend from the the daily perspective is up the weekly clearly down the monthly clearly down and this coil is very important we breach through this coil and you'll notice i've got a line around that 4167.
we'll get back to that when we look at the futures but this coil is is very strong towards this zone here should we break where do we go fill the gap that's sitting there it makes the most amount of sense we've also got a box that's sitting here and the reason we have that box is because of the futures market as well we know there was consolidation here before it came up we've got our defended area where the demand has been very fierce and in the next session if it does come back down to here we're going to need to see reaction now the problem lies when we look at the futures market and this is where the bears will come in and say i told you so look at this lower highs i did a private stream if you ever want to join the private streams free seven day trial link down the description below and we talked about this being a potential flag into the next session now it certainly is a flag and this is why you've got to be careful with patterns because you've really got to know how to trigger them and coming into the session you can see that flag and you can see how it's broken through but it doesn't quite break through that peak then reverses and it's all over and it takes out those lows so this almost set up to make a new high but this is such an important level remember we said 41 67 65 before this level is not only massive on the normal stock market but it's become the critical point of breach for the buyers this area here i believe in some ways will really dictate if we get through there probably taking out these previous highs and then moving towards that 4280 4290 gap fell defended zone you can see it level of last demand you can see it neutralized area as far as i can kind of see on these charts and at this point we're putting pressure on that downward side so if the market does break through here and the bond traders even are starting to get a little bit neutral it might be a big deal and really allow shorters to get back into these markets so we've got this box we'll be watching it very carefully and i think we've got a good trap here between prices but we'll be we'll be very very interested to see what happens over the next 24 to 48 hours speaking of options which we said would bring up max payne sitting at 413 in the previous close now if we go back over and have a look at it look how well they did at getting to that price they really caused a lot of maximum pain on the previous close they did well with the options now if we move that actually crept up as well and what that means if it crept up was that there were a lot of puts and calls coming in near the end there into the expiration that really slotted us in this area to make perfect money check out that they've done well just to get it closed right exactly where they make the most amount of premium those nasty sneaky people if we think about the friday session though this is the big level 400 being a huge support and currently we've got a little bit of puts adding into the 410 so you'll notice maximum pains moved up eight points here to 408 from 400 and if that continues to move up and we continue to see downside puts entered it kind of gives the bulls a better case scenario as well to say that this zone is defended by the street they don't want to let it through and don't lose sight of the next week expiration this is the big one the third weekly expiration of the month this is the one that used to be the only options expiration before weeklies and dailies came in where is the max pain there 423 so that would be actually pivoting towards a bearishness move here to suck inputs and then a bullishness move to get that max paying next week during the big expiration super interesting stuff i'm going to be excited to follow it with you guys here on the channel definitely subscribe because we'll be following along seeing how it plays out and we've used this effectively to some degree remember don't rely on maximum pain if it helps if it comes with something like your actual technical breakouts your price action your movements then you can give it a little bit more confidence and then confidence is really the key point here it just will make more sense to you and that's important let's move over to bitcoin still hovering we know already the supply is all sitting at 32 000 until bitcoin breaks out of 32 000 how do we know this thing's out of accumulation or distribution or whatever it's in we don't so it's mostly just day traders trying to basically buy the bottoms down here which is around that 29.3 and then sell it off as much as they can around that 31 kind of three zone buy sell buy sell that's what they're doing accumulation still here i'm excited to watch bitcoin over the next couple of weeks maybe if the stock market start to go we breach through this level especially the nasdaq and we start to see some ramp but i don't know if you can say that right now neutral to down would be the only way you could look at this bitcoin market btc shorts what's going on there frankly they don't really do anything for me they're not going up they're not going down uh basically we haven't seen any big spike in shorts slight increases in the overall short position from the nasty whales and i think that's consistent with where we're on price so we mentioned a whole bunch of big news coming out ecb press conference and monetary policy statement now we know the central banks around the world this is the big news now it didn't matter as much maybe in the past year or two while the fed were controlling everything but now all of these monetary policies are being wound back the ecb one is important especially the currency traders and expect a lot of currency moves over and even gold moves potentially here over the next 24 hours it starts at 7 45 a.m new york time then it goes into 8 30 a.m new york time it's going to be annoying and then after that we have friday another big bit of news which is of course the cpi number out of the us so two big bits of news to end this week two big bits of news to get us out of the coil on the stock market and give us some type of direction and i'm sure many of you excited for a little bit of volatility to enter back into this market so if you're interested in watching it all unfold of course subscribe to our channel smash that like button guys and thank you so much for supporting remember also to jump into our public discord with a whole bunch of different traders around the world checking it out check out our social such as twitter and of course if you ever want to get part of the private community for the streams we do do pre-market then you can do so seven day free trial thanks so much see you in the next one bye for now
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