저자: FXEvolution진행자 · 외국인
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2022년 5월 26일 종가 기준 시장 점검. 극단적 베어리시 기사와 공포지수(VIX 27.49, 공포탐욕 17) 확산은 과거 2020년 3월 바닥 신호와 유사하다고 주장. 내부자 매수·리테일 순매수 개선, 6주·7주 연속 하락 후 1~3개월 수익률은 통상 양호했다고 언급. 달러 약세 전환, 금 1856-1874 돌파 시 상승 가능, 미국채 10년물 하락 기대. 나스닥·S&P500은 저항선 도달, S&P500은 4080 부근 갭 메움 후 조정 가능성, 4300이 다음 목표. 비트코인은 약세로 판단하며 크립토 윈터 우려.
다듬은 글
hello everybody and welcome back well if you've been following our channel for the last two weeks you'll know that we've been bringing in some big stats and hard-hitting things that have been helping us to gain clarity in a tough situation a lot of that's been paying off this week with some nice bullish moves but have we hit a resistance on the nasdaq and s p 500 that's just too much let's take a look at stocks cryptos and commodities right now we've got some great data and we've got some great information to go through for the next session this is for the close of the 26th of may 2022 and i thought the best place to start today's video was talking about these bear articles so on the weekend we saw huge amounts of bearish articles being written and of course what does that mean well it means that the spread of fear was extreme the last time we saw this at such a really high extreme level was actually march 12 2020 about a week later the mark stock market and markets around the world bottomed so what's that telling us well it's saying that the market is always very good at sucking people into a general concept and let's have a look at some other stats occurring here right now we've got decent amounts of volume being triggered that is net retail buying of u.s securities has improved especially in the last couple of sessions why so many buyers are coming in well wall street has made the decision after the meeting minutes to get involved we've also got insider buying and purchasing happening and that's also really really fantastic to notice here if we think about it last time we saw insiders purchasing like this was the bottom of 2018 2020 and right now so it does show that there's a bit of a switch and who's going to know better than us probably the insiders in the actual stocks themselves by the way if you haven't already join our discord community the public discord links in the description below i saw a lot of people placing some really great trades in the last 24 hours in the public index community and of course if you want to try the private you can do so seven day free trial links in the description as well caution prevails bearish options bets on single stocks surged to levels not seen since 2020 another sign of why we started getting bullish in the last week and a bit on markets too many people being bearish too many bearish articles too many the end of the world is happening kind of events now it doesn't mean it's not happening and i want that i know a lot of you people will be bearish out there and that's absolutely fair enough it just means that it's due for a rally when you start to see these types of things occur it could mean turnarounds are about to come and that comes back to exactly what really made us believe in this concept and so far it's been correct when we hit six weeks down that was really unusual then we hit seven weeks down we enter territory that's only been hit four other times in history and usually if you notice the next one month and three month returns tend to be positive that is a rally gets brought back up now does that mean that the bear market's over and the depre and some kind of recession is over it doesn't necessarily mean that at all it just means the market needs to suck more people into an idea and then we'll find out whether the recession is over and cancelled or whether actually it's real and a new low comes in later and of course in midterm election years never doubt that the market can't come down at another point extreme fear yep we've got a 17 reading still so still very fearful in the market in general even though trends have changed but we are at a key resistance and for the last 24 hours let's take a look at what happened it was a broad-based buy but as we suspected as a community here it was really tech on risk was on for the session and for anyone that was really looking at the previous two videos i think you would have known that it's coming because we were on top of this one as a community we did really well there so nasdaq was the best performing market it makes perfect sense it rallied the pre-market session had some good setups in it and it basically just went ballistic all the way up to resistance points that were hit basically mid-session you can see that with all of these markets hitting very key zones now we're at this resistance but have sectors started firing well jets was up 5.14 xly consumer discretionary 4.9 and of course semiconductors xlk all of the risk on was all over the place going up and all of the risk off utilities etc was flat as flat can be this in turn led to things like the fear index the vix dropping again 27.49 so we probably expect this to hopefully drop a little bit more but we do need to talk about the u.s 500 a little bit later because the s p might look completely different we've got a support we've got a level that might be broken 25 always an important point 25 30 35 each five point increment worth while looking at on the vix pcc pretty much even with puts and calls right in the middle zone as we know max payne is coming up because we have the friday options expiration so we'll need to look at that but pcc can't really help us too much copper or dr copper as they like to call it still stuck in the range it looked a little bit dicey there but copper switched looking a little bit more positive that's good and at this stage sitting in a nice level us tenure now we hope this comes down obviously we want the us tenure to come down to alleviate some of the inflation fears to alleviate what the fed has to do and by the stock market coming down it's really helping the fed's supply demand problem remember the fed can't deal with supply that's up to china to really deal with the whole covert stuff over there but the next thing is u.s tenure can we get a drop in it and at this stage we've been calling it since up here as a community the market has moved down it's now at a point of support and i'd like to see that get breached and really see this 10 years start dropping away to where i think and hope it can get to back into the low twos two-year also dropping nicely here back to 2.47 and that's led to of course the treasury yields that is tlt looking like that one of the better kind of trades recently in terms of sharp ratio certainly the risk to reward has been okay and i'm hoping the treasury can get back to around that 122 level fairly soon we've talked about this many times go back and watch our other content you'll see the last couple of days we've spoken about that a lot the us dollar now we weren't trapped thank goodness i mean if we were trapped a lot of people did get trapped up here remember the spread of the idea everybody was talking about how great cash was up here we hit a monstrous resistance on the daily weekly time frame for the the dxy here the us dollar index and then it breached through false moved underneath and at this point we were pretty damn confident the dollar was rotating out when that happens where's money going bonds equities those types of investments so the us dollar weakening here a little bit obviously that means risk on around the world because this is the safe haven remember the us dollar is the major that's why we look at it at this stage still looks pretty weak it's come down to a bit of a trough it's already done a bit of a pullback swept these orders here didn't quite get back to the 103 which we're hoping for but still very weak and the new trend is down for now for the dollar let's move over to gold so gold has done very well for us as well in the last couple of weeks we've picked up some amazing levels and we've been speaking about this level now for the last couple of sessions i'd love to see it breach this zone so right around here we have the 1856-21 if we go above that then what are we doing we're putting in a double bottom in the direction of trend i love those types of positions so that would be very strong here for gold hasn't done it yet but certainly trying its best to get up there and that could spell for a new peak past 1874 gold so watch this it's going to be very susceptible of course to things like the dollar index as well but at this stage if the dollar index goes down expect gold to hopefully turn and the big heavy support here at the moment is 1840 if it breaches under that bad things could happen and back down i think we go to maybe even the 1820s at that stage natural gas keep struggling now i'm not a huge fan of the natural gas trade at the moment they call it the widowmaker for a reason super risky position you know it's very very bad this is a tweezer usually it spells disaster kind of trades obviously if you're a bull on natural gas if it cleans above this zone it's it's quite a strong kind of position it shows that it's putting the squeeze on all the shoulders but if we get a new low underneath here expect for shorting to come back in on natural gas and just be careful here of this trade it's not easy right now with the geopolitical everything else that's going on we also saw that there's been some changes in the world on oil now oil's back to the resistance or right around it it's it's dealing with this level i'm not won over by the oil trade i know it was up again on the last 24 hours but be careful around this resistance this is no joke this level so again very high resistance big level of supply i'm not convinced that oil really wants to move up it's been in a monster hole pattern and i could see a lot of traps happening here on the longer term remember oil my opinion here is for multi-months not necessarily the next two days or anything like that let's move over now to xly xlp and we'll begin the story of the stocks so we've been looking at this because it shows us risk on and risk off in the markets it's one of my lead indicators to show me that things were turning around and we took a deep dive into it in the previous session to talk about risk coming back on now it looks like it could be a double bottom have we breached no does the current market show us that there are is some strength in the market uh sure absolutely i would like to see it take this zone out and then pull back and then of course allow us to say okay risk is finally on because it hasn't been on really there's been no risk taken in the market since back in the 15th 16th of march when that last time the nasdaq and all of the other tech stocks started firing so this super critical point we're looking at it very closely and we'll continue to of course watch that story let's have a look at tesla so tesla did a good session finally first time in a while what did it do well it breached the zone we spoke about in the last 24 hours big area and it put in a first time frame change of trends so that's very important we basically breached this area first time frame change of trend there could still be pullbacks we're at a bit of a point of role reversal or a shorting area that could come in for tesla but i think that there's some buyers here now so like something like a 665 could be a good level to watch in the next 24 hours if we get pulled back and i think there are going to be some buyers coming back into tesla on the short term time frames we've breached a bit of a downward trend here as well so if we think about it here's the market here's the little bit of the downward trend series of lower highs i would love to see it take this out once it takes that out i get even more confidence so this this certainly much much much better for tesla and risk on in general so not too bad in the last 24 hours another one that moved quite nicely was apple very similar you've got your last low obviously you've got some swings in there this is a huge level coming up we've talked about it and it put a low in that basically was equal with the other one in the last session it then rallied to make a new high which is pretty damn good so it looks like it can set up we know where there's demand the demand's sitting just behind this level down here so we know there's a defended level around that 130 760.
that seems to be a pretty key zone and then we also know that it's trying to flag here the last couple hours of trade so where's the next target for a lot of people i think it's going to be somewhere around that one just underneath 150 area for apple and if the nasdaq breaks out which we'll check out the second that's the next level that could really be opened up here from an apple perspective let's move over to the dow and the major indices so dow hits resistance and all the indices hit resistance actually look at that slams straight into the zone top that we talked about this is where you expect shorters to try to come back into the market remember on a daily and four hour time frame we're still in a downward trend i mean don't get me wrong yes okay everyone wears super negative down here and yes the lower time frame trends have changed but the daily is still in a down trend so if we think about the dow point critical is where it is right now 32 7 70 780 that kind of area a break above that significant very big deal but this is why it's turning around here and this is why weakness is coming back into the market it's hit a resistance that we've spoken about now for the last couple of sessions the dax also at resistance if you're not sure what the dax is it's the german 30 index or chairman 40 sorry index and it got caught with the dow there but the german 40 index so the top 40 stocks and you can see the resistance again very very high big level series of higher lows pretty big deal and we can tell why shorters might come in also iwm closes on the resistance again why would shorter come in well we're at a big point this is where they're going to try to fight the stand this is where the shorters come back in and say hey you know what we want to take the market down we know it's still in a downward trend and it brings us back to the nasdaq the nasdaq if you think about this downward trend here just hit resistance do we have a gap close that could be potential here yes and i'm hoping that does occur but you can kind of tell why the market might find some problems come back down a little bit possibly even come back to the 12 000 and then bounce off that zone ideally breaching past this level so in the next 24 hours i think a lot's going to happen at this stage i wouldn't be surprised at all if we come in a little bit red into the market session seems probable doesn't necessarily have to happen but it seems probable that we might form a base and you're looking for really that that base formation on your day trading and scalping and even swing trading because once you see that and you know it's based whether it bases down here at bases before and starts moving back up once it breaches here what's it going to do it's going to try to fill the gap zone which sits in this area here 12 500 being the next big resistance for the nasdaq but the nasdaq super behind the rest of them so let's have a look at the s p 500 notice it hits that exact perfect level we talked about just underneath 4080 it's what we've spoken about all week being a big critical point so let's look at the trade and see what happened well it hit it it filled the gap there's the gap this one filled now spy is better in terms of analysis that is the s p 500 than the nasdaq the nasdaq is being weak and as that gives you sometimes false signals the spy is the true one so when we look at this okay where is some big volume profile well we've got some areas right around that 400.
look at that level damn that's big zone so there's a lot of stuff going on in this 400 so where might we see some structure potentially the 400 that could be a pretty key level we look at the u.s 500 futures again very critical zone you can see where it bought off yesterday we might even wipe this on the friday close i wouldn't be surprised it is quite possible or we go down a bit and then we look for a turnaround so there's a lot of structural issues there's a lot of resistance here bulls are looking to get past this point to feel incredibly confident about the next moves to bring that double bottom in remember if we go back over the s p 500 what this is forming is effectively a beautiful base that we can then say okay cool decision made on the high time frames the market is trying to go back up and that opens up 4300 as the next big rally zone so there's a lot of risk here for the s p 500 in the next kind of sessions you can see where the bulls are and i totally get why the bears are trying to short this area all the way down because that's the zone that they first come in and then the bears are going to sit around here as well i wouldn't be surprised if they're sitting there very excitedly let's have a look at the options expiration for the friday so maximum pain would sit around 397 you can see the stock price is 405 here on the spy so again points towards a little bit of pullback possibly close around that zone you don't know what's going to happen but it does help explain the concept if it does start to occur so watch that one and with bitcoin look this market has been very very sick i mean it just swept the lows so this is the support we've talked about for a while and it swept it and purchased off wow that's a pretty big move considering what's happening in the other markets so that sweep is not good the series of lower highs is not good look for a breach above those i'm not one over and i've said this a few times by bitcoin movements at the moment i don't like it 32 000 you have me and i you've got my attention that's where that big supply sits that i'm interested in this is all very very very fast nimble trading if you're going to do it and and i don't really like it and at this stage it still looks very very weak so be careful here in the crypto market something strange is the foot and it looks like crypto winter to me which we've been talking about for a little while uh also if you haven't already come and follow us at fxevolution on twitter does help us out definitely come join us we share a whole bunch of things discord community again guys links down below and remember we have our next figure core pce price index 8 30 am new york time which is going to be a fantastic bit of information because at least then we'll see maybe some more movements of it prelim gdp negative 1.5 percent look we did we expected to be good no it was going to be a horror show it is the market doesn't care anyway that's why sometimes when you're interpreting this news you can't understand it because the market's already sold off heavily so when a bad bit of news comes out it may have already priced that in maybe it was pricing and worse how do you know that's why we follow the price action we follow the movements in the market and we obviously don't have an opinion we instead bring the opinion back to what's the market actually telling us and right now it's at a resistance and this is you know the war between the bulls and the bears thanks very much for watching subscribe if you enjoyed the content and of course give us a like we'll see you in the next one and yeah have a great trading session have a great weekend everybody bye for now
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