저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 테슬라 Q1 실적콜에서 머스크가 '어른'으로 복귀해 저가형 모델 가속화와 AI/로보택시 비전을 제시한 점을 긍정 평가. 실적(매출 -8.5% YoY, 예상 하회)은 부진했으나 저가차·로보택시·옵티머스 기대로 주가 급등. 테슬라를 AI 기업으로 재평가해야 하며 장기적으로 $2조 시총 가능성 제시. 8월 8일 주주총회 전 매수 의견 제시. EV가 하이브리드를 압도할 것이라는 전망도 제시.
다듬은 글
time to talk big Tech thank goodness Dan I is here what a week all right I've seen him a million times talking about everything but now you've had time to digest it all Dan IES managing director equity research wed Bush Securities thank you for being with us so you're saying this is the next Revolution the fourth Revolution since 1995 Tech again tell me why this is the blowup moment I mean last night those are that was pop the champagne type of earnings from Tech so any questions about monetization that was a pound the table m in my opinion because it's showing that this phase of this AI Revolution the modation it's now hidden it's starting of course with Godfather of AI Jens and Nvidia what we see in Redmond with Nella but now look at alphabet I believe Amazon and others this is just the start of a trillion dollar title W hit Tech I disagree with Ross in terms of what he's talking about saying that this is not important I mean because I could argue Tesla over the coming years could be one of the biggest AI companies out there and look for M yeah but Elon said he's not going to build it unless he has 25% that's the problem yeah but but but again if you look at this conference call and how he laid out the vision Ross and and obviously all the criticism going in if there were five things that he needed to show I think he showed all I think actually think investors and I've heard from some come at this conference call viewing Tesla dramatically different than the train wreck and we've talked about it that it felt like the last few months and again it goes back to finally there was an adult in the room but you're discounting the end of the call with Martin resigning and you and I have been working with Martin for a long time and he is the glue in management and shareholders and investors and and he continues to lose season top exec Ives during this really important transition and I find that to be concerning despite what you I do agree the vision he laid out is one that we've invested in and hope happens but it just seems like there's this talk and vision and then there's this like reality we're seeing under it which just doesn't look anything like the talk yeah and I think now it's really a proved me going forward in terms of for a Tesa but if you look at how they've laid it out with the vehicle the the sub 30k being acceler into next year the FSD in terms of laying out the AI Vision I believe right now you have just dramatically bad news baked in for what I believe you know could ultimately be a company that's worth a trillion trillion and a half two trillion when you look out in the next four five six years over the last month Tesla's stock has been on an insane roller coaster there were questions over demand for the company's cars and whether it' release a new affordable model or not which caused the stock to take multiple hits then the company's CEO Elon Musk announced on X that Tesla's long-awaited robotaxi model would be revealed in August sending the stock higher but Wall Street wasn't ready to go all in on Robo taxis and analysts kept downgrading Tesla stock the price continued to fluctuate before the company's q1 earnings call in which Elon said that Tesla is planning to release not one but multiple affordable models a statement that served as music to wall Street's ears the affordable Vehicles news caused the stock to jump over 19% in the last 5 days and even had analysts like Dan IES seeing the Praises of Tesla clinging firmly to their bullish stance but there's more to the story than affordable Vehicles which is why we're going to explore why Den IES believes that Tesla remains a compelling investment and why being bullish on the automaker is the right way to go let's talk about a name that you've liked a long time you pulled your price Target down Tesla still like it tell me more why where does it get the 275 this was a moment of truth and the adult in the room came and it was musk I mean gave the sub 30k vehicle accelerated going into 2025 the growth story on the other side this autonomous AI robotics is there now it's all going to be about driving volume and I believe that I believe the bottoms in in the near term in Tesla and as they now start to see what I believe you is demand starts to accelerate over the next few quarters the cost the cogs continue to go down their ability to produce these cars cheaper look I think for Tesla me and you have talked about this for many years you're going to go through these fork in the road category five storms musk will navigate through this and I believe that this is just another period that they'll navigate from and I think that was a huge starting point coming out of that conference call he's got to get those lower cost Vehicles whether it's one or two models he said it's like riding a bike to put out a you know put out a cheap vehicle like he could do with his eyes closed um you know but how if he could do it so easily why didn't he do it already look they were going to do model 2 nextg vehicle which obviously a lot more complex this is essentially a model 2.5 but the writing's on the wall they recognize what they need to do all you need to must do is give the blueprint I think we'll get more in terms of robot taxes August 8th shareholder meeting is going to clear up as they move to Texas and the comp package look there's always going to be a lot of noise around the story but I believe this turnaround now is that has actually begun in Tesla during Tesla's q1 earnings call Elon Musk said something very interesting about how the company should be valued he said that Tesla is way more than a car company and that analysts and investors should start valuing it like a tech or AI company instead since it's way ahead of the competition ition when it comes to areas like full self-driving that doesn't mean that Tesla is doing badly as a car company in fact it has a dominant position in the EV Market with a global market share of about 20% and it also has around 50% of the US market still many analysts including wed Bush's Dan IES are starting to understand elon's point and seem Tesla for the AI giant it really is so will Tesla really become one of the world's largest AI companies in the future well on April on August 8th is when we're going to hear more um about Robo taxis and stuff what do you do with the stock ahead of that day do you buy it sell it I mean remember the Cyber truck when he then the window broke or whatever but um the Cyber truck has been exciting though there's been some recalls but he's gotten out more cyber talks I think than people thought he would so what about this August 8th what would you do with the stock ahead of that August 8th day I think you buy peso stock here I mean to me they they laid out the strategy they did what they need to do they ripped the Band-Aid off Street numbers I mean there were there were more you know super amounted downgrades out there bearish look the Uber driver in New York City's bearish on Tesla so the point is I love that setup which is why we kind of pound the table here as a as a set up into what I view into year end you know I know you said that he showed up this time right because last time he really didn't give a vision he didn't give much and people were very frustrated um you know there was worries that he was distracted you know does one conference call where he shows up and says here's what we're going to do is that good enough do you feel he's less distracted was he distracted well I mean what happened is he less distracted now by the way I mean everybody has Tesla they love Tesla so I just would like to know what you think look it's a great start and you needed musk as he's done for many years lay out the strategy I'm not saying there's not going to be other distractions going forward but this is this is complex what they're trying to do competition's increasing obviously miscalculated a bit in China but I believe they understand what they need to do to get the two and a half three million units you needed a pilot on the plane you didn't want head Striker and musk was ultimately the power on the plane now investors feel much more comfortable owning the name than they did to start this week when looking at Tesla's 2024 q1 earnings we'd see that for the first time since 2020 quarterly Revenue dropped by 8.5% year-over-year coming in $950 million below expectations meanwhile operating margin hit 5.5% compared to last quarter's 8.2% while operating income was $1.17 billion even though Tesla's earnings came in below expectations the stock soared thanks to elon's bullish comments on upcoming affordable vehicles and a robo taxi Network which have completely turned things around for the company on Wall Street Dan Ives for example said that he was bullish on autonomy and Robo taxis but he didn't think they'd be enough to help Tesla in the near- term because they need another five or six years to really scale that's why Ides believes Tesla having an affordable vehicle is more important and whether you agree with his opinion or not it seems like Elon and everyone at Tesla are deciding to appeal to both Wall Street and long-term investors saying that the company will both solve autonomy and produce cheaper cars this could be one of the reasons why Tesla stock is a safe buy as it has a strong competitive advantage in the EV Market a Visionary leader in Elon Musk and a loyal customer base that supports it its mission to solve autonomy in vehicles one big reason for Dan IV's bullishness on Tesla stock is Tesla's position as a leader in the EV Revolution as he sees a future dominated by EVS with Tesla at the Forefront Ives is also betting that even if Tesla stumbles a bit now its lead in technology and brand recognition will Propel it long term we've all seen how impressive FSD has become in a very short amount of time and it continues to improve more and more as Tesla updates it every week or two and this alone indicates that the company is very close to solving autonomy in fact a video was recently posted on X showing a Tesla car running on FSD version 12 in Germany which indicates that an FSD launch in Europe could be very soon also the company recently launched the enhanced autopilot monthly subscriptions in China which could be a stepping stone before it introduces FSD to China as well opening up new sources of revenue and boosting margins that being said how about EVS versus hybrids you know there's not going to be any hybrids over at Tesla um and Ron Baron and Steve Wesley and many folks say EVS is where it's going even though some of the committees have been pushing forward and GM and all that to go with hybrids the truth is that I think they're more expensive to make and you think about the batteries and whatever that it's going to be EVs do you think it's going to be EVS over hybrids in the next 10 years look I think we're definitely shifting where hybrids will be some of the opportunity for names like gm4 I think that's why especially GM they're doing all the right things with Mary you know out in the 313 over the long term EVS is going to be massive growth but I do believe you got to call it is it's been a sobering moment for the EV Believers you've seen demand come off but you're still going into one of the biggest transformations in the Auto industry in 50 years Tesla is still making waves in the EV industry unlike most of its competitors who are struggling to keep their heads above the water and even though it took a massive hit recently Tesla stock momentum is changing for the better during the earnings call Elon Musk talked about how a lot of autom is are switching over to hybrids and how that isn't the right thing to do right now as EVS will completely dominate in the future he might just be right as the EV Market is expected to hit approximately $1.6 trillion in 2030 and while the market for hybrids is expected to grow at a similar rate EVS will likely dominate as Government subsidies for them increase all over the world and as newer and more affordable models come out including Tesla's affordable models and Tesla is is already making sure that it'll dominate The Market in the future recently inking strategic Partnerships with battery giants like catl and LG Energy Solution which will allow Tesla to increase its production massively no doubt there are valid concerns about competition heating up in the EV space and production hiccups can throw a wrench in the best lay plans but for now analysts like Dan IES seem to believe that Tesla's strengths outweigh its weaknesses in other words Tesla invested should be looking at the long term betting that Tesla will continue to disrupt the Auto industry and emerge even stronger in the future Tesla some of it recent wo where it's going robots I'm just going to say robots over and over again let's take it to our leadoff panel joining us on set tonight wedbush Securities managing director Dan IES and Gerber Kawasaki president and CEO Ross Gerber Dan first to you numbers weren't I was trying to be polite I said less than optimal maybe less than Optimus is what I should have said Phil kind of laid it out what was your biggest takeaway for the quarter Tesla needed an adult in the room and musk was the adult in the room on this conference call the big thing the the most important thing is that they are not going just straight to autonomy a model to a sub 30k vehicle will be out and that's accelerated and that's music to the ears of the street you went in investors were expecting a disaster and another comedy show conference call instead you actually have a pilot on the plane navigating and and it's not Ted Striker nice air airplane reference I I Ted Striker uh Ross what was your biggest takeaway from the quarter from the guidance anything that I mean investors like it but the stock has I don't need to tell you has been in a rut the last number of months yeah you know I I agree with Dan you know Elon did a you know Tesla what I call Tesla Elon which was is the Elon that people like in this call which was definitely necessary and he certainly didn't poo poo the idea of having a $25,000 or less model which is irrelevant of the financial deterioration of the overall fundamentals of the company so I think if you look at Tesla like robots and robot cars and and obviously thinking that this is going to happen in 12 months is is probably a little bit aggressive and we all know that elon's timelines are usually three to four years aggressive but that said that Vision longterm is wonderful it's just the transition to this and what it will look like financially it seems for sure that shareholders will be sacrificed for Mass adaption of EV Vehicles so profits and margins that we expected on Tesla will continue to probably go lower even though volumes might go higher we haven't even mentioned Optimus or Tesla's robotics business yet but it's all the more reason to be bullish on Tesla Elon said in the earnings call that he expects Tesla to be able to sell its robots externally by the end of next year and that's not the only thing he said about Tesla's AI capabilities according to the Tesla CEO if somebody doesn't believe that Tesla is going to solve autonomy then they probably shouldn't be an investor in the company he even went as far as saying that Tesla would be able to solve autonomy even if he wasn't involved which shows how confident he is that the work was close to completion he also revealed the true scale of his air related Ambitions by disclosing that Tesla's AI training compute capacity will increase by around 467 sent year-over-year to 85,000 equivalent units of nvidia's h100 GPU by the end of 2024 Tesla will definitely use this AI training capacity to train and develop its FSD software and maybe even Optimus to make them a lot better than they already are and while many people remain skeptical Tesla is definitely well positioned to become one of the top AI companies in the world as FSD takes off as a car company Tesla has strong potential to dominate the industry in the future and with proper execution the company is likely to achieve most of its planned projects all of which could lead to the stock skyrocketing and reaching the $2 trillion valuation Dan Ives talked about while the company May face some risks and challenges like regulatory uncertainty production bottlenecks and increasing competition at the end of the day Tesla is the only EV company actually making money and not burning billions while achieving nothing for this reason we believe that it will continue to grow and who knows maybe it'll even surpass the $2 trillion Mark and reach $5 trillion like Arc invest CEO kathywood predicted in fact Elon recently agreed with one of wood's opinions on Tesla calling the company the biggest AI project on Earth for now we just have to hold on to our Tesla shares wait and see so what are your thoughts on Dan IV's latest comments on Tesla is Tesla Stocker b Tesla has been up to these past few days then
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