저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 테슬라 실적발표(화요일)를 앞두고 모델2 취소 우려와 중국 경쟁으로 인한 성장 둔화를 경고하며, 경영진이 중국 성장 전략·목표치·마진·AI/FSD 비전을 명확히 제시해야 한다고 주장. 로보택시는 5~6년 후 상용화 예상이나 장기적으로는 여전히 강세 입장. 해설 측은 FSD 가격 인하, 로보택시 중요성, 인도 진출 등을 근거로 장기 낙관을 유지하지만 단기 실적 불확실성을 강조함.
다듬은 글
web Bush Securities Dan IES is here at Post 9 we know that Tuesday is going to be a big day you say the clock has struck midnight and the line that stuck out to me uh trading in the model 2 for robo would be a tragic gamble in your opinion I I think it would be a gamble that could maybe even Define the future of Tesla next 3 to 5 years and I think right now the big nervousness is model 2 that's a key part of the growth that's 50 to 60% in the incremental growth next 2 to 3 years Robo taxis autonomous that's not for another 5 to six years and I'd say look we've seen over the last decade we've been through a lot of White Knuckle moments from musk and Tesla this is up there and this has really been a Cinderella story that in the near term has really turned into a nightmare on Elm Street he it all starts next Tuesday needs to control the narrative because if there's no adult in the room there could be darker days ahead so he if if he really does say we're we're going to play this long game and it's going to come at the expense of the two you would rate that would be if that happened it would be a disaster of Epic Proportions because in the near term and you've seen others throwing the white tow because of the fears of that and because of some of the stuff that's reported that would really put a massive black hole or Gap in the growth for the next few years and if you look at the last sort of 2015 2018 there were levers that musk could pull and ultimately did pull and that's why it's you you've seen the the history but this for the i' say for the first time in five six years longterm Tesla Bulls are really calling feels like they're about to hit the elevator if they don't hear what they want on Tuesday why are analysts like you and investors so downbeat on the prospect of the robo taxi future bullish on Robo taxis bullish on autonomy the problem is this would be like cook on you know on May 2 coming out being like okay iPhone 15 now look we're not going to have anything till iPhone 21 but trust us thanks for being on the conference call so that's the problem is that we're bullet it's always worked for him before exactly and I think now the difference is you need to refresh competition come from all angles Game of Thrones that we're seeing in China and the credibility for musk has definitely been questioned because the last two confer calls we've talked about on the show those have been train rack horror shows since Tesla's CEO Elon Musk announced that the company would unveil its Robo taxi vehicle on the 8th of August many analysts frowned at the idea including wed bushes Dan IES that doesn't mean that IES is going bearish on Tesla he's still bullish but he believes that the company should get an affordable car out there first before it even starts thinking about Robo taxis while I agree with IES that Tesla needs to start offering an affordable vehicle I find it hard to agree with his opinion that Robo taxes will need another five or 6 years to to launch and I'm going to tell you exactly why now we'll also talk about some recent Tesla updates that highlight the company's next phase of growth and also tell you our expectations for the company's earnings on Tuesday so this it all comes down to clock strk midnight Tuesday night adult in the room needs to step up navigate the story and that's why we call it a fork in the road moment we are still bullish on the long-term Tesla story but this is a category 5 storm and the pilot on the plane can't be Ted Striker but what what what do you there there's a lot of just analogies and stuff there but what do you what do you want to hear because the China competition is not in Tesla's control yeah you need to hear four things one what's the growth strategy in China how are we going to reverse the trend that we're seeing in in mainland China which has been we'll call it 60 70% of of the growth incremental growth story for Tesla how do they do that those cars are cheaper they're nice I saw them on the streets I tested them H how are they going to reverse that kind of growth Trend P prices old margins we're going to basically bet on our brand no different than what Apple's done and I I think many others including Microsoft depending on the on the products but give the strategy there what are the targets and Sarah they have to give Godin what's the targets on growth realistically what do margins look like where does it trough out at AI musk the 25% threat recommit keeping AI within Tesla showing FSD showing autonomy that's been the problem here is that if you had an adult in the room to navigate the stock I think 30% of the sell off here is really mus driven but it all comes down to like you could talk to talk got walk to Walk Den IES has valid concerns that Elon Musk and Tesla's management need to address on the earnings call on Tuesday including how the company expects to grow from now on and how it plans to turn things around in the Chinese market now we don't have a crystal ball and we don't know what management is going to be talking about in the call but we do know it's going to be a very important call so much so that Elon Musk had to delay his visit to India where the newest Tesla Factory will be built to attend the call and answer investors questions so let's talk about some recent Tesla updates and through them we might be able to guess what management will talk about in the earnings call and whether investors should load up on more Tesla shares or junk ship hello everyone and welcome back to invest ocracy in your latest research paper uh big ideas for 2024 you listed your strongest convictions um among them you mentioned robot AI Bitcoin and also electric vehicles you anticipate that EV sales will grow from roughly 10 million units in 2023 globally to 74 million in 2030 uh which is a lot frankly and which today I think is a very contrarian view given the increasingly unpopularity of electric vehicles worldwi why are you so positive about that uh well we believe that one of the issues range and range anxiety is is going to change as range increases uh but more important uh we see electric vehicle prices dropping into the 20 to $25,000 range within the the next five to 10 years and if you look at uh price points historically you adjust for inflation and you look at price points at which uh Auto Sales really take off model by model uh it is uh around that 25 to $30,000 range uh and so we believe that electric vehicles will scale to roughly 70 70% of the market by that uh by that time and it and price will be the biggest reason recently it was announced that Tesla has dropped the price of FSD to $8,000 from $112,000 in the United States getting rid of enhanced autopilot at the same time which was $6,000 and this should be extremely bullish news for Tesla investors you might be wondering why would Tesla cutting the price of what really differentiates it as an EV company be bullish well we've all seen how much Tesla owners loved FSD when they tried it in the free trial period and Tesla even reduced the monthly FSD subscription to $99 from $199 discounts to FSD will allow more Tesla owners to come on board as many of them thought it was too expensive in fact only around 400,000 Tesla owners in the US are FSD subscribers when the car company has around 2.5 million Tesla vehicles on us roads the discounts could also help Tesla sell more cars as non- Tesla owners might want to see what the hype is about this brings us to our next point which is Tesla's big bet on autonomy Elon Musk told us when the company reported 2023 is quarter 4 earnings that 2024 won't be a great year for Tesla thanks to a Slowdown in the EV industry so we already know that Tuesday's numbers won't be great what we do know however is that Tesla plans to go all in on autonomy and this FSD discount proves that it's very likely that Elon and management will talk a lot about FSD in the earnings call and how they expect to increase FSD adoption rate they'll also talk about the newest updates to the software including FSD version 12.4 which Elon called a big release and said that it should arguably be called version 13 so what are you watching in terms of the um challenges that Tesla is facing in China because to your point yes we're seeing it with regard to Tesla um they can't drive Tesla with the in C I believe it's government officials can't drive a Tesla right um what's the issue there so year-over-year there sales are down 19% and what we're seeing is that a local competitor is definitely coming up higher and Tesla is having to deal with a lot of things shifted even with Starbucks a lot of things shifted post pandemic because they had that very stringent covid zero policy and that made a lot of consumers shift away from American companies that maybe were there and they're a lot more cautious and also look at China they've lost $7 trillion of market cap this year they are definitely going through a real estate collapse and so that is making their markets come down and it's overall making the consumer a lot tighter on their money they're they're having a problem with their economy not so much not so different than we are though we haven't had that kind of Market problem disruption so overall I think demand is weak in China as a whole and certainly it might disproportionately affect American multinationals because of the government yeah and that's a good point I mean because there had been all this talk about I guess the rebound uh in China in a postco world and it hasn't happened uh to the degree that was expected uh and when you think about Tesla when you go back to Tesla I do wonder if some of this there there's been talk about kind of where e are are and how much data that they have and if that is some of the concern the backdrop in the you know you can't have a Tesla well yeah because just like there's the concern in the US that Tik Tok is tracking uh individual US citizens information a Tesla company is going to know exactly what the Chinese public is doing where they're going how they're going and that's a lot of data for American to have on US citizens Chinese citizens okay during the earnings call Tesla's management team might also go over the concerns for the Chinese market and discuss things like when FSD will come to China Elon said on X that he expects FSD to launch in China very soon and this was followed by Tesla announcing a new $2,000 price cut to its model 3 EV in China which could help increase demand in the country still it might take a while before Tesla can get FSD to China as FSD works by gathering data and the Chinese government might not want a company based in the United States to keep collecting Chinese data wanted to take a look at Tesla it's at 149 right now year to date well it is down about almost 40% what is going on another 52 we low so news that more than 3,000 cyber trucks are being recalled Jay Woods is with us Chief Global strategist Freedom Capital markets good to see you thank you for being here Jay um let's start with Tesla it's been it was a certainly a family favorite it's in the index you know uh what's going on here it's one of the most talked about stocks all the time you have Elon Musk leading the way and uh they've been coming out with headlines that have got a lot of people puzzled uh you know for years uh we traded this on anticipation of the next big thing that they're going to roll out and now we're seeing some bumps in the road uh you mentioned the Cyber truck today was you know delayed uh or having some recalls well before the recalls there were delays in rolling it out the charge which was supposed to be 500 m per charge only came out at 340 and then it the uh the price point was much higher than people anticipated so there was a delay in rolling it out then when they did uh it didn't meet what people had hoped so there a lot of questions and then last week uh Reuters had reported through Twitter that uh you know the model 2 may not be happening that roll out may be delayed or not happened at all Elon Musk just reped that's a lie we haven't heard anything back so we need to get a little more clearance and guidance from Elon Musk and when are we going to get that hopefully on Tuesday's earnings call as everything points to earnings let's break this down there were no injuries or accidents because of this recall of the Cyber truck we are just being very cautious any thought thoughts on the the details of this recall and what it could mean for a Tesla well it's just like I said another bump in the road we don't know what it means but uh you know that roll out continues to to be slow and then those wanting to pay that higher price point they're going to see a story like this like you know what maybe I'll wait uh they want to see this thing tested Road tested a little more often um and then you you talk about the other roll outs that have been delayed um the the semi the Tesla That was supposed to be a big revolutionary idea they've only rolled out one uh we haven't seen it and now he talks about autonomous driving uh Elon J tweeted on 88 August 8th of this year they're going to announce uh their Robo taxi well usually that causes the stock to rally and and it didn't this time yeah and we have a lot of names coming up but just to have a clarification folks on the Cyber trucks um the pedal problem that is the issue with the Cyber truck cyber truck accelerator pedal pad might dislodge and get trapped causing the vehicle to accelerate unintentionally and increasing the risk of Crash and that's why he gave that response in other words they're they are not aware of any crashes but that this is a proactive on their part but 3878 3,878 Vehicles being recalled so that's tough now it's another headline that Tesla doesn't need so next week you know people are saying they want to hear more from him pertaining to to the Future and the plans and um you know I had a great conversation with hatm diab from Gerber kavasaki and I said I guess he's got to put on his big boy pants and really spill it out and he he said no chance you're being crazy almost if you he didn't say crazy but don't even think about it um Dan IES was so disappointed in the last call because again he just he didn't give any sort of clarification on the future now let's discuss another problem Dan Ives had with Tesla the trade-off between the affordable EV and Robo taxis I've said that Robo taxis needs another five or 6 years but given the fact that the reveal is happening in August we might see Robo taxis launching way sooner than we think Elon has made it clear that this is what Tesla is prioritizing right now and since the company has already made so much progress with FSD it's not hard to believe that it'll successfully solve autonomy soon maybe by the end of this year or next year Den IES also mentioned the tough competition in the market and he's correct in saying that many of the companies are coming out with great EVS competition in autonomy is basically non-existent the thing is Wall Street analysts want fast results but Tesla is currently in a new growth phase so it's only natural that it runs into headwinds at first if you're a Tesla investor who really believes in the company and the future of fully autonomous vehicles then you need to hold the stock and weather the upcoming storm of course analysts opinions aren't always right and while some of them them don't really believe in Robo taxis others think Robo taxis are essential for Tesla's long-term value for example Matt Smith who's an equity Analyst at Rebellion now recently said on X that he thinks that 80% or more of people including Tesla investors don't actually understand the economics and strategy of Robo taxis he received a reply from James dhma a leading machine learning expert and Tesla investor who thinks that it's actually 99% of people in the Tesla community that don't don't understand how Robo taxes would benefit Tesla Dharma has previously tweeted that Tesla's Robo taxis would be better than affordable vehicles for the company saying that one Robo taxi will drive five times the miles of a personal Tesla car which would in turn five times the value to users and the profit to investers the CEO of Ark invest Kathy Wood is also extremely bullish on Tesla thanks to Robo taxis she believes a Tesla Robo taxi network is a$1 trillion opportunity which is why she put a price target of $2,000 on the company's stock believing that it'll get there by 2029 this price would give Tesla a market cap of $5 trillion and Elon Musk believes that it's entirely possible for the company to reach that goal he even liked tweets with Cathy's bullish price Target and even said that he sees Tesla reaching that market cap soon as for concerns over affordable cars Tesla's price cuts are making its luxurious Vehicles more affordable than ever in fact Elon posted on X that the model y now starts at $ 29,40 after discounts US federal tax credit and estimated gas savings which isn't too far from the $25,000 we thought the affordable EV would cost even though Tesla's stock is down now we're still getting great news when it comes to the company's new technologies and expansions and den Ives even said that entering the Indian market is a huge opportunity for Tesla forecasting that 15% of the companies sales in the future will come from the country he also said that Elon needs to stay as the company's CEO for the next 5 to 7 years which really tells you how significant the upcoming earnings call is and it could be elon's most important one to date because he needs to show how he'll turn things around if you're a firm believer in Tesla and Elon you could load up on more shares if the earnings are bad and the stock starts falling remember you're not just investing in Tesla's EVS when you buy Tesla shares but also Tesla's AI energy business car insurance business and Robotics business but what do you think about what Tesla is doing to get back on track what are your expectations for the earnings on Tuesday Tesla has
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