저자: DanIves · 외국인
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AI 관련 주식 전반이 조정받고 있으나 엔비디아 실적 펀더멘털은 견조하며 데이터센터 매출 비중 약 75~80%, 주가수익배수는 낮아졌다고 주장. 2024년 5월 실적발표 전후 반등을 기대하는 낙관론. 단, 중국 경쟁과 거시 변수(금리, 중동 긴장)는 리스크로 언급.
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Tom it's not just Nvidia basically you look at anything that had been linked to AI here and they all seem to be under pressure what's happening there have been so many pent up uh expectations for this uh for these stocks there's a lot of bullishness for AI anything associated with AI even if you just mention it on a call you can you can it resulted in a rally in your stock in the last several months the stocks have just been going through the roof so I think what happens now is in light of uh asml and Taiwan Taiwan semit tsmc earlier this week people are G are bringing a little bit more scrutiny to the AI story is it as good is it as lasting as everyone thought it would be as we expected it to be um it's not this miracle drug after all and that's what people are wondering now what they're going to look at next week they're going to scrutinize every number that these magnificent seven release and every comment out of their CEOs and their CFOs to figure out is this real is AI as good as real as lasting as we had been expecting uh and I think there's going to be a lot of skepticism and of course you know I'm sure a lot of these CEOs or their Communications team are kind of going over their planned remarks and revisiting what they can say to reassure investors what will you and your team be listening for to determine whether this AI story is more hype or more substance is are the products changing are you using AI in a tangible way to change your product is it changing for the end user whether that's the consumer whether that's the business are people really buying your AI story or are you just is this just uh you know some magic fairy dust you're trying to sprinkle on your results that's the question that everybody is going to be uh asking into next week it's great to see you as always there is nearly no one I would rather speak to on semic connectors than you um so we got Nvidia down 9% today yeah what the heck is going on I I think with Nvidia it's probably just super micro dragging like it's dragging the whole semi space down and like the AI names are getting hit worse I don't like they didn't say anything like they don't report earnings for another month frankly um I don't think it's more than that but I I mean you look at the industry as a whole you're you're right things are starting to move more into a correction phase we had reports from from players like asml and and and tsmc um you have to remember outside of ai ai is very strong right now the the rest of the semi- industry this year is not all that great right PCS and smartphones like they' probably hit bottom I don't think they're getting any worse but like they're not necessarily getting a ton better right now um data set are spending outside of AI is actually quite weak server CPUs and networking and that sort of thing is quite weak industrial end markets have been very weak Automotive tsmc called This Out Automotive is now starting to roll over um uh potentially and so I think just broadly for the industry especially given how strong it was last year it was very strong year to date until recently valuations in the sector have been very high as the stocks have held up very well amid estimate Cuts I mean I'm I guess part of me is not incredibly surprised that things are taking a little bit of a breather as we get ready for earnings which kicks off like in in you know in in a big way next week as of the time of this video Nvidia stock is down 10% but it's still up around 60% year to date and over 180% for the past year many Nvidia stock investors thought the company was Unstoppable during the AI boom and kept loading up on shares sending the stock higher and higher but right now these investors are getting extremely worried in the midst of stiffing market conditions Nvidia stock appears to be taking a nose dive and this has left investors with lots of questions and very little answers despite this there is still a lot of bullish sentiments around the stock and that's what we're going to get into right now to determine if Nvidia investors should be worried about what's going on or not but before we do that if you want to keep up with nvidi Nvidia though of course doesn't report for a while until later in May and you still have a $1,000 price Target on Nvidia Nvidia has sort of successfully portrayed itself as now separate from the semic cycle the the in the different areas that you were discussing yeah is it still is that right is that the right way still to think about it yes and no yes in the sense you 80% of the revenue is data center like slai and look I I know that it's it's not pretty out there today but so far most of the signs are suggesting that AI spending is is still very strong right I I mean again I guess people are getting nervous from some of these they they wanted to see a positive pre for some of these names right but I mean in general the spending is strong even guys like tsmc like talked about um AI spending like holding up I think they even extended their view for how long how far out they they thought it would grow so that that market seems well and like I said data center is for for NVIDIA is 75 or8 % of their total revenues right now so they are like sort of like uniquely concentrated uh in that market the stock even is not even that expensive I mean if if if the the current numbers are anywhere close it's low 30s like like multiple like on on on sort of like a a calendar 25 like kind of earnings number like it's not even that expensive it's way cheaper than it was actually before the run I've actually made this point maybe with you guys before you know um as the stock is has has has gone up a ton by the the stock is still up something like 50 or 60% year to date even after today like it's still up a ton um the estimates have gone up like far or far more than the stock has even gone up and the multiple has actually come down a lot it's actually very very inexpensive um if if the numbers are any close to being correct now that that's clearly the fear right I mean you know people are are nervous for for a stock like Nvidia that just the numbers have gone up so much so quickly that that sustainability is is is a question and and and I get it like you know we we you sort of see this stuff sometimes with these I'm not terribly worried about it this year I'm not even really worried about it next year you know 2026 I guess we'll see I'm also very bullish the long-term on the opportunity again for them I still think in five years or 10 years we'll be talking about numbers that are materially higher than what we're talking about today like what does it look like in two years I I'm not sure I don't think anybody knows but at least for now I I I I think the trajectory for them should hold up I think so Nvidia has had a good run lately its stock price has soed in recent years fueled by the ever growing demand for powerful chips that help power AI Technologies but even the smoothest rides can hit a bump lately there's been some chatter that might have investors rethinking their Nvidia positions for example there's a Slowdown in the crypto Market currently with the market cap recently dropping by $400 billion in just one week and this could be attributed to delayed rate Cuts or even geopolitical tensions around the world any hit to the crypto Market would naturally hurt Nvidia because companies rely heavily on its chips for mining on top of that there's always the looming threat of new comp competition or even a shift in consumer preferences H stoic do you need to be how much do I need to believe that the earnings Will trump emotional volatility in this market good morning great to be yeah I mean like look it comes down to to earnings and I think the next few weeks this is a get out to popcorn moment for Tech and you're going to see chips AI Revolution Enterprise consumer on the digital side think Google meta and others I think this is really going to be a flex the muscles moment for Tech so my view is no doubt White Knuckles many yelling fire in a crowd theater on Tech I think we sit here four or 6 weeks from now look at this more of a golden buying opportunity rather than the time that was something more structural and you think the earnings are going to show up and I got to say given that Nvidia is 11 and a half% lower for the top I mean if you are bullish on Tech and you're expecting earnings to turn out this seems like an incredible opportunity look that's look our view and over whatever 25 years handholding it's through the choppiness and the volatility that's why all the work we do traveling around the world in Asia understanding what the supply chain looks like what demand is and I think look a few quarters ago it was choppier in terms of Enterprise what we saw in terms of overall spending but now the mization of that AI Revolution it's happening and it's not just about Godfather of AI Jensen Nidia and of course what redond and nadell are doing now it's it's everyone else you look at what's going to be happen with paler Google Amazon I think the rest of software names like mongod DB Salesforce and others wedbush's denes recently called nvidia's CEO Jensen Juan The Godfather of AI and he might just be right nvidia's role in the AI boom added an extra $1 trillion to its market cap in just a few months and it's been dominating the AI chips Market with more than 90% market share however some might say that everything is a about to turn around for NVIDIA and we're going to find out what this means hello everyone and welcome back to investra no one can deny that nvidia's AI chips are extremely impressive which is why they're always in high demand and very hard to get for this reason the company's customers aren't keen on relying on a single Source Hardware companies such as Dell Technologies and Lenovo Can't Get Enough Nvidia chips to meet customer demand and that is why they look for Alternatives like AMD and Intel similarly Cloud providers like Amazon and Google want more options so badly that they are designing their own chips but while this is a proper business strategy for these companies it can be a big threat for NVIDIA fortunately for NVIDIA investors there isn't really a big problem with the company that's making its stock crushing rather there are several reasons why Nvidia is currently trading at a low price and none of them actually has to do with the company itself for starters it was a challenging week for the entire Market following news of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran which is Raising concerns among investors given the potential disruptions to business supply chains especially in the Middle East also there are ongoing inflation worries after the March 2024 Consumer Price Index revealed inflation came in slightly hotter than expected accompanied with the Federal Reserve delaying the rate Cuts not only that but asml reporting worse than expected earnings caused many semiconductor stocks to tank simply because as ml is the company that makes the tools these companies including Nvidia use to make their chips investors saw asml having bad earnings as confirmation that its chipmaker clients are taking it slow and not racing to push out new chip Technologies which must have contributed to the recent sell-off of these company stocks so it's not just Nvidia alone out there we got to remember who are some of their biggest competitors yeah I mean some of the the big competitors are really the the names that you already know and love or maybe don't love I don't know uh in and AMD uh AMD is probably its biggest competitor and has been for years uh they uh uh they used to have a they have a graphics card arm as well as a a CPU arm so they're basically fighting Nvidia and Intel at the exact same time in different spaces uh but the the idea is that they have a new uh chip called the uh the Mi series The Mi 300 series and so they say that that can compete with nvidia's chips Intel has its gouty series it's gouty 3 chip says it can compete with nvidia's chips but they don't account for nvidia's new Blackwell chips so uh Intel and AMD they were focused on nvidia's Hopper series of chips the h100 the h200 these there's a lot of numbers and and letters but basically what it means is NVIDIA had a chip everybody was gunning for it right they got close or next to it uh but then Nvidia said you know hold my beer I'm going to go ahead and come out with an even better one so so these companies are trying it's also their customers their customers are building chips now so Google Microsoft wants to build it they're not there uh Amazon so they're they're all trying to get into this to try to beat Nvidia in some way just lastly we had mentioned the stock price over the past 52 weeks how has Nvidia actually been performing as of late we think about this year to date and and what investors should expect going forward for year to date they're up 70% uh over the last 12 month months they're uh over 200% they make everything else look like it's just standing still even meta which jumped massively after they announced that dividend and that that share buyback plan uh they they went Gang Busters I think they went up 20% uh on the day uh when that was announced but makes them look absolutely ridiculous Nvidia just absolutely dominating and just to just quickly to put a point on how good they're doing as far as Revenue goes in their last quarter they had 22.1 billion in Revenue that was up from 6.1 billion in the same quarter the prior year and their full year Revenue last year was $27 billion so in last quarter they nearly hit all of the revenue for the prior year and we're expecting them to obviously have another bangout quarter I think the problem comes when you start lapping this while some analysts are choosing to dismiss the competition completely nvidia's vice president of Applied deep learning research Brian katanzaro sees that competition is getting stronger and while this statement certainly doesn't mean that Nvidia is panicking it isn't the first time that the company has acknowledged the efforts of its competitors outside of the AI domain we have seen Nvidia comment on amd's Radian GPU Division and how they remain their Prime competitor they were even excited to see AMD compete with them this means that Nvidia might need to be more careful moving ahead especially in terms of providing a superior set of Market offerings either taking the lead in the order Supply or even competitive price to Performance ratios right now fresh competition is coming from companies both big and small and the battle is expected to be fierce in fact the stakes are way bigger now think about it Lisa sue the CEO of Advanced Micro Devices has said that the AI chip Market will reach 400 billion do by 2027 likewise Intel CEO Pat geler has also projected a $1 trillion Opportunity by 2030 that's almost twice the size of the entire chip industry in 2023 so what's it going to be for Invidia and how will it manage amid the competition let's get right into i okay let's get back to the markets um Tech's been under quite a bit of pressure it seems like it started when we saw a change in Outlook when it come to the F when it came to the Fed rate Cuts but I know you're watching One stock in particular that you now say is probably the most important one in the market it's Nvidia um technically in correction territory still up about 70% year to date but in correction territory and trading lower this morning these moves in Nvidia what does it say to you about the broader Market well the market has been following Nvidia more or less remember we were up 27% from late October until April 1 driven by the AI March and Nvidia is the leader of that March now with Nvidia weakening and it grew to the third largest market capitalization company in the world up to over 5% market cap that's a sign that we're climbing down the Euphoria I know it's been phenomenal for NVIDIA it still doesn't trade at a very Hefty multiple but you can't have just forward March without recognizing that the rest of artificial intelligence has not been one of profit making as it is for NVIDIA Nvidia sells the chips everyone else buys the chips and for a slowing down here of this stock it's just a sign that the rest of the Market has to regroup if you ask for my opinion I'd say that I'm not too worried about Nvidia one interesting thing that was previously highlighted by katanzaro is the common misconception about nvidia's journey and the company's transition from primarily Hardware Centric to a software Centric firm having strong Hardware means nothing if you don't have software capabilities that take advantage of the hardware and Nvidia has a proven track record of harnessing a lot of juice out of its chips through software optimization such as tensor RT which was reported recently also Beyond raw performance there are other factors to consider one of which is that Invidia has a strong lead in terms of software support with features like dlss being a major advantage as for concerns over the competition all the cloud providers that are currently making their own chips are still Nvidia customers and will continue to spend billions on its chips with names like Amazon and Google lined up for its upcoming Blackwell architecture nvidia's New Black well products are ahead of the competition who is still focused on taking down the h100 and there's still massive Room to Grow according to nvidia's long-term partner TSM TSM very recently reported impressive earnings and said that they forecast the revenue contribution from several AI processes to more than double this year and also forecast that the AI processes Market will grow a compound annual growth rate of a massive 50% over the next 5 years they also said that AI processes will make up 20% of the company's revenues by 2028 and since Nvidia is one of tsn's closest partners and the market leader when it comes to AI processes it's not too hard to figure out why tsm's forecasts are great news for NVIDIA Nvidia is also entering Industries with positive future outlooks like the humanoid robots industry and the healthcare industry the humanoid robots Market is expected to be worth $13.8 billion by 2028 while a I powerered Healthcare is expected to be worth $73.59 signaling great opportunities for NVIDIA Den Ives said that he expects the stock to go up when earnings are reported in May as Nvidia expects a revenue of $24 billion for the quarter and an EPS of $552 a growth of 238% and 46% respectively the truth is the stock might go either way after earnings even if Nvidia delivers amazing results thanks to the Market's conditions and everything else that could affect it from the rate cuts to the rising tensions in the Middle East so Nvidia stock is definitely a great investment opportunity for those willing to hold despite the current volatility as once all of the macro issues clear up Nvidia stock could definitely rise again but what are your thoughts though do you think Nvidia stock is currently a buy or a sell let us know more about the latest updates about Nvidia and what it's been up to then
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