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the Democrats have announced two articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump markets are unmoved shrugging off the news but what are the real consequences here joining me today is Peter Schiff CEO of euro pacific capital peter good to see you welcome back to the show oh thanks for having me back on the show well I'm happy to ask you this question could president Trump be the first president to be impeached by the house exonerated by the Senate and then possibly reelected by the people in the same almost year well I suppose I mean if the house does in fact impeach the president and it certainly looks like they're headed in that direction I can't see any circumstances where the Senate would actually convict him and remove him from office but you know I don't think he's going to get reelected I mean it's not impossible I was you know I thought it was far more likely that he was elected originally but I don't think his prospects are as great now as they were back then although the conventional wisdom is the opposite most Paul people thought that he had no chance of winning last time and they think he can't lose this time because they think we have this great economy but we don't we just have another stock market bubble and we'll see how the the impeachment plays out politically I mean that's really what we're doing here the Democrats are doing this for political purposes and we'll see if it backfires or works to their advantage but I think a lot of it is gonna have to do with what's happening in the real economy in you know a year from now and maybe to a lesser extent the stock market but a lot of people point to the unemployment rate saying look 50 year lows what more could we want well sure I mean the unemployment rate was very low when Obama left office I mean the unemployment rate at least the official rate was declining for almost the entirety of the Obama presidency and when Donald Trump ran against low unemployment he said that the numbers were fake that they were phony that it was a fraud that it was a hoax and that if you looked at the real unemployment rate where you looked at all the people that were working part-time that wanted to work full time all the discouraged workers who had dropped out of the workforce that the real unemployment rate was much higher and that's still the case today we still have a lot of people with part-time jobs that want full-time jobs we still have a lot of discouraged workers who are not in the labor force so you can certainly make the same argument against Trump that Trump made against against Obama the reason that Trump won is because Obama was selling a lie or not Obama Hillary Clinton was selling a lie that we had a real recovery under Obama well the voters knew that there was no real recovery well we'll see if you know they have the same realization in in 2020 because Trump made a lot of promises that he hasn't kept about raising the standard of living of average Americans about revitalizing manufacturing about making America great again about paying off the national debt about making government smaller there are a lot of boasts that that Trump had but the only thing he can really claim credit for is a record high in the stock market but again we had record highs under Obama and Trump said well who cares about the stock market because that's just a bubble well now the only thing he does care about really is the stock market and the same fake unemployment numbers that he once criticized because the GDP growth under Trump is not measurably different than it was in Obama's second term what you know which candidate you have a feeling as to who on the Democrats could possibly take out President Trump in well I mean I think if the economy is weaker if we're actually in a recession technically if the media acknowledges that we're in recession then I think it doesn't matter who the Democrats nominate even if it's Warren or Sanders I think Trump is going to lose now if they managed to keep everything going so that we can still pretend that everything is okay and it's a stock market is still near record highs at the time of the election then you know if for some reason Mayor Bloomberg were to get the nomination which seems not very likely but I think Bloomberg has the greatest chance with the market you know near the highs and the economy not in recession I think Bloomberg of all the Democrats has the best chance of winning and of course he would be the least bad president of that group but you know he's not the nominee which is probably likely we'll see I mean I do think that Biden certainly has a good chance of beating Trump if the if we're not in recession but whether or not the country is willing to take a longshot bet on socialism and elect the Sanders or a Warren we'll see that's a tough call I mean Trump could beat either one of those candidates under the right circumstances but if the stock market is tanking if we're in a recession then again it doesn't matter who the Democrats nominate Trump's losing let's talk about the Fed now markets not pricing and near certainty that rates would be unmoved at tomorrow's meeting and a high probability that they will stay unchanged next next year are they done cutting no I mean they're not done you know until they get to zero and then we'll see if they're done or you know if they want to try to go negative I agree there is a low probability that they're gonna cut this week the Fed has seemed to be indicating to the markets that it's going to wait and see but what the Fed has assured the markets is that under no circumstances will they raise rates then it really doesn't even matter what the data is the only decision that the Fed has to make is do rates stay the same or do they go down and I think that's the only reason that the stock market has rallied it's based on that app output where the fear of a rate hike is no longer in the market but I do think at some point next year the economy will be weakening or maybe we will get a sell-off in the stock market and the only way for the Fed to try to prop the market back up would be to start doing more rate cuts and they will supply them as soon as the market demands them
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