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. This is our weekly update for the week of March 16th. First, let me just start with some particulars. Uh as of March 13th, total assets of Granny were 3.97 billion. Total assets for Granny Junior, Granny J, 369 million. And for Granny I or the income fund, 57 million. Over the past week, Granny fell 0.86% compared to a 1 and 1/2% decline for the S&P 500 or 70 basis points of relative outperformance.
For Granny J, uh Granny J fell 0.94% versus 1.67% decline for the Russell 2500 or or roughly 72 fell 0.87% compared to 1 and 1/2% decline for the S&P or roughly 69 basis points of outperformance. Year-to-date, Granny is up is I'm sorry, is down 2.26% compared to 2.86% for Granny uh for the S&P 500 or 60 basis points of outperformance.
For Granny J, it's down 1.41% year-to-date compared to the Russell 2500 up 1% or 248 , it's down 2.68% compared to 2.86% for the S&P 500 or relative under relative outperformance of 18 basis points. The macro, uh, I think in a simple sentence, I know this is hard to understand, but I believe higher oil benefits the US.
Let me explain. Crude oil is expected to be elevated for some time. The prediction market sees an 86% chance that oil's over $100 by the end of March and a 93% probability that it's above $100 by the end of June. And as Ray Dalio points out, this current Iran war is going to ultimately come down to who controls the Strait of Hormuz.
And at the moment, um, there are very few ships passing through. And in fact, uh, investors don't expect a ceasefire until after May 31st. Um, and they expect US troops to enter, um, with a 63% chance before the end of the year. So, how does this benefit US stocks? Well, keep in mind the US is a net exporter of oil, so higher oil is good for the US economy, as you can see here.
The second is the US relatively benefits versus other countries. So, think of this as comparative advantage because the Strait of Hormuz supplies oil to China, India, South Korea, Japan, and Europe. Third is higher oil poses global growth risks. And when you worry about growth, you favor a rotation to growth stocks cuz when growth is scarce, growth stocks lead.
And that favors the US because the US is a growth-heavy index. And finally, the Trump put favors US companies. The VIX is telling us that maybe some of the worst is behind us at the moment at least because the VIX hit 35 last week. And the inversion of the VIX, which is the spread between the four-month and one-month inversion, that peak inversion was last week and has since improved for both the spot VIX and the level of inversion.
And hedge funds look like they're already positioned for further downside because short exposure is the highest since 2021. And the level of increase in weekly shorts for ETFs was the second highest since April and second only to April 2025, which was the low. And if you need any proof that maybe US that higher rates good for US stocks, look at what's outperformed since the war started.
Groups that should do well when you're risk-off actually have underperformed. Treasury bonds, gold, staples, healthcare, and silver. Whereas risk-on trades have actually done better. Ethereum, Bitcoin, energy, Mag 7. So bottom line, we think March is likely an up month. The Iran war doesn't really cancel that view.
Uh keep in mind stocks generally do well uh during wartime, the US stocks. So we still expect an up March. So let's quickly look at individual stock performance. For Granny and Granny I, the top five names were Air Products, which is a basic materials company, KLA, Strategy, Chevron, and Quanta Services.
And at the bottom were PP and PPG Industries, Union Pacific, Goldman Sachs, Robinhood Markets, and Meta. On Granny Junior, the top five performers are Nebias Group, NextEra Energy, United Therapeutics, and Lumentum. The bottom five were IonQ, Western Alliance, Aerovironment, Shark Ninja, and Elf Beauty.
And as far as the theme performance, the best performing theme was global labor and AI shortage, followed by the style tilt, which is a seasonal, and .
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