저자: DanIves · 한국인
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결론: 소프트웨어 급락은 AI 에이전트 공포에 따른 과잉 매도이며, 기술주 특히 AI 소프트웨어·인프라는 저평가 매수 기회다. [핵심 주장] 소프트웨어 기업(세일즈포스·서비스나우·마이크로소프트·오라클 등)은 수십 년 데이터와 고객 기반, 기업 내 통합 때문에 AI 에이전트로 쉽게 대체되지 않는다. 대체 플랫폼 구축에도 최소 2~3년이 걸린다. [근거 수치] 세일즈포스: 주가 약 50% 하락, 순이익 증가 지속, P/E 24, 4년 선행 P/E 14, PEG 1.01. 서비스나우: 주가 약 50% 하락, EPS 증가, P/E 61, 선행 P/E 20, PEG 1 수준. 마이크로소프트: P/E 25, 선행 P/E 21, PEG 1.17. 오라클: P/E 29, 선행 P/E 19, PEG 0.96. [과거 사례 주장] 애플(2019~2020년 약 50달러 → 2022년 이후 약 300달러), 테슬라 전기차 지배 예측, 엔비디아(2022년 10~20달러대 저점 언급 후 큰 상승), 메타·아마존·구글 2022년 저점 매수 기회 주장. 2025년 딥시크 충격은 과잉 반응으로 규정. [투자 환경] 빅테크 AI 투자(연간 약 7000억 달러 규모 언급)는 경쟁상 불가피하며 향후 1조 달러로 증가 전망. 이 지출 확대가 오히려 확신을 강화한다고 주장. [언급 종목·방향] 마이크로소프트·오라클·서비스나우·세일즈포스·스노우플레이크·팔란티어 긍정, 엔비디아·AMD·TSMC·ASML 2025년 급락 과잉 반응으로 평가. [리스크/조건] 개별 종목은 지지선·기술적 지표 확인 후 매수 권고, 투자 판단은 개인 책임. 영상 제작자는 유료 멤버십 홍보. [출연자 전망] 소프트웨어 및 AI 인프라 섹터 장기 낙관, 현 조정은 기회.
다듬은 글
hello. Those of you who have invested to some extent and follow CBC News will likely know a person named Nenny Albra. In the case of Danny Ive, as a Managing Director and Senior Eco- Research Analyst at Websea, he has garnered significant attention as he analyzes tech-related companies and shares his outlooks, with the stocks he has selected rising considerably .
With the stock prices of software-related companies falling sharply right now, this person appeared on CNBC today to discuss why this is actually a good time to invest and which stocks they believe are highly likely to rise significantly in the future. While sharing that video, I will also share the stocks this person selected and the stocks they invest in intensively .
Now, before I share today's video, I would be very grateful if you could click the hand-shaped like button below it . Now, I mentioned that Apple's market capitalization would surpass 3 trillion in 2019 and 2020 as the iPhone cycle returns. Just two or three years later, Apple's market capitalization actually rose above the 3 trillion that this person mentioned .
As you can see here, Apple's stock price was about $50 in 2019 and 2020. Now, after this, in 2022 when Apple's market capitalization reached 3 trillion as this person mentioned, the stock price rose by more than three times. If you had listened to this person's advice at the time and bought Apple stock and held onto it, you would have made a profit of more than six times since you bought it at $50 and it went up to nearly $300.
Now, as expected, back in 2019 and 2021, when there was a lot of skepticism about electric vehicles, this person predicted that Tesla's electric vehicles would dominate this field and that the electric vehicle market itself would rise significantly . And as you all know, we now live in a world where not only electric vehicles but also autonomous robots are actually roaming around.
Now, I emphasized the importance of NVIDIA because starting in 2022, NVIDIA will become a very important unit forming the network for the AI era . If you look at the year 2022, that was a time when Microsoft's stock price was fluctuating between $20 and $10 . So, if you had listened to this person and bought Nvidia stock at $10 or $20 back then, you would be making a profit of more than 20 times .
Now, on top of that, when the stock market took a big hit in 2022, Tech Celluff appeared on CNBS, emphasizing several times that it was a great opportunity to buy tech stocks . However, at that time, Meta's stock price dropped as low as $90 and at one point rose by more than tenfold. And in the case of Amazon, it dropped to $90 at that time.
Even if you had bought back then, you would have seen a profit of nearly 2.5 to 3 times at one point . Then, Google, which is rising sharply right now, also dropped below 90 at that time. If you had bought it back then, you would have made more than three times your profit at one point. Now, as you can see, there have been many instances where this person’s predictions were relatively accurate.
As a result, with the announcement of an artificial intelligence agent called Cloud Coin at Entropic, the stock prices of many software companies are falling significantly. So, believing that these software companies are highly likely to fail, many people are selling their stocks at a loss, and hedge funds are also selling heavily .
We will now watch a video where Den Ive shares his opinions and outlook on this matter . Following this video, we will discuss the stocks that Den Ive is currently investing heavily in . Now, as you just mentioned, following the announcement of Antropic's Cloud Coke, the stock prices of software-related companies are falling sharply due to fears that this Cloud Coke is highly likely to replace the services of software companies.
Now, I asked for his opinion on this, and according to Dan Ive, the likelihood of cloud computing replacing software companies is lower than the likelihood of him beating the winner of Peacegate . So , as you just mentioned, he is saying that during the decades he has invested, there have almost never been instances of such an absurd self-inflicted loss .
Regarding the services and sales mentioned by this person, they are saying that although stock prices are falling, it is highly likely to be a good investment opportunity, and they provide further explanation about these two companies in the latter part of the interview . After listening to that part, I will take a look at the financial statements and charts .
I would say listen chat look at my CRM software and like make a better copy of it so I don't have to pay for it every month look and that's like one like in theory like from a high level that makes sense but the reality is like a sales force hundreds of thousands of customers they have you're talking about decades of data how instrumental they are to come a lot of times if you're an outside vendor to get in just based on security and infrastructure it tells it takes two years to even get Now , let's talk about something very important here too.
There is. If the host were to ask cloud computing or AI to create a service similar to Salesforce, AI could now really build a platform similar to Salesforce in a short period of time . Therefore, since companies are paying Salesforce to use its platform, some are suggesting that we could simply use artificial intelligence to create a similar platform and use it .
However, according to Dan Ive, in the case of Salesforce or Services, data is already integrated not only with the companies' platforms but also with the numerous employees working there. Because these platforms have accumulated decades of data rather than just one or two years, replacing them is by no means easy, and it actually takes at least two or three years to present a new demo to these enterprises or companies .
So, for that reason, not only the AI service but also the customer base and data that this AI platform already possesses are very important. What is even more important is that platforms like Salesforce and Services will not just continue as they are; these platforms will naturally integrate AI to develop significantly.
Rip to multiply across software infrastructure, that's why my Microsoft Oracle you look Nebi you look like some of the infrastructure plays. I think what we essentially are going through is almost like a deep seek type moment in tech. I think there is more of the golden bind opportunity given the Capx.
Now, in this case, they are saying that this software self happening right now is similar to the deep seek that occurred in 2025 . Now, if you had invested back in 2025, the stock prices of quite good companies, including Nvidia, AMD, TSMC, and ASML, would have dropped significantly as a company called DeepSearch in China announced that it had launched a chip with performance similar to Nvidia's chips for 300 million in just three or four months.
However, as I told the members back then, it does n't make sense for the stock price to drop like this based on a single piece of news, and it is absurd to claim that a company in China that had never heard of before could achieve in just three months—with 300 million dollars—what Nvidia has accomplished over decades .
If you do even a little research on the company Nvidia, look at its financial statements, and examine its partnerships, you will immediately realize that this news makes no sense. Now, in the case of Dav, there are predictions that all software companies will go bankrupt with the emergence of AI agents like CloudCower, but nothing has actually happened .
And on the contrary, software companies like Microsoft, Seuss Force, and Service will not disappear due to artificial intelligence but will instead develop further. That is why we are saying that CellAp, which we are currently looking at, presents a very good investment opportunity, similar to 2022 .
Furthermore, many tech companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta are currently spending a significant amount of money in the field of artificial intelligence. With the significant announcement of Cap XX, many people are actually getting scared and selling their stocks out of fear that they are spending too much money.
However, according to Dan Ive, hearing the news about such massive spending has actually strengthened his conviction in these companies. That's what they're focusing in on everyone's trying to grapple and figure out how they make their company more proficient, more better, kill costs, and that comes at the sake of spending on enterprise software.
Do you think that's fair? My whole point is that as the use cases play out and we've seen with Paltier front and centers really the one that's been the poster child. I think you'll see with [ __ ], Snowflake, and others, they will play huge roles in the buildup because I don't believe like the AI revolution will not get to the height that we believe it will without software, without infrastructure, without Microsoft, without Oracle.
And that's why, you know, I think some of these nerves here is I think it's misguided relative to when we look at this year. Now, I mentioned a few stocks here as well . Now, according to this person, the artificial intelligence we envision will only come about if we have AI software, not just the implementation using GPU chips.
And regarding that software, he mentions not only Microsoft, Seuss, and Servica, which I mentioned earlier, but also Snowflake, Wangodi, and Oracle. At the same time, he stated that many people are currently quite frightened and mistaken about the emergence of AI agents, and repeatedly emphasized that times like these are truly a good opportunity to invest .
Vegas 1950s from the ground. You're building Dubai from 25 years. I you're essentially building new cities, new infrastructure big tech right now. They're not going to slow down. That's why you about 700 billion where will be a trillion spent. And that's why they need to do this because if they sit back and watch the stands out of year.
Now, I can really relate to this part as well . Currently, Dan Ive and other analysts are saying that while these tech companies are increasing their spending by using hundreds of billions of won or more, their motiv is also rising significantly . Now, according to Da-Live, the AI era we are currently experiencing is said to be like Las Vegas, where construction began in 1950, and like Dubai 25 years ago.
Although the era of artificial intelligence has just begun, according to Dan Alve, if we look at it over a 10-year period, we have only come about 3 years. At the same time, they emphasize that the development of the AI era is bound to grow even larger in the future, and that it is only natural for this spending to increase beyond 100 borrowings rather than 700 borrowings, and that in fact, one must spend this much to avoid falling behind in competition with other companies .
So, if you look at this table, it is a chart categorizing the companies selected by Dan Ice that will lead the AI era . Let's take a brief look at the valuations and financial statements of a few companies that Den Ive just mentioned among the software companies that are currently falling sharply .
Now, what you need to know is that in 2022, the EPS or earnings of tech companies, including Meta, Amazon, Google, and Nvidia, were actually decreasing . That is why it made sense for the stock prices of these companies to fall. In the case of software companies that are currently experiencing a significant decline, their EPS is actually rising.
In other words, the company continues to grow, but the stock price is falling due to the FE . Now, regarding Salesforce, which is being mentioned a lot right now, if you look here, this is Seeking Alpha. This platform is very helpful for analyzing stocks . So, since we are currently running a promotion, if you are interested in this Seeking Alpha, please be sure to click the Seeking Alpha promotion link in the RC description to receive the discount.
So, if you go into SAL's Runnings here, the EPS is listed by quarter at the bottom. However, as you can see, while the stock price has been cut in half, if you look here, net profit is actually continuing to increase. And coming to the comb, if you look at the CRM valuation, the P ratio is 24, the 4P ratio is 14, and the PAC ratio is 1.01.
The company is currently continuing to grow, and while many people might get scared and sell more as the stock price falls like this, the valuation is actually becoming increasingly undervalued. Now, in the case of Service Na, if you go into the learnings and look at the EPS, the stock price has been cut in half, but the EPS continues to increase.
Now, in the case of this company, it doesn't have as long a history as Sales, but a significant number of companies are increasingly using Service Na, and Service Na is a platform that connects these AI agents. So, if you come with white rain and hit Nao, the current P ratio below is a bit high. It is 61, but when looking 12 months ahead with the 4P ratio, this P ratio drops to 20 and the PAC ratio drops to 1m.
Now, however, rather than buying at just any point simply because these companies are undervalued, I am currently analyzing the charts of the stocks I am keeping an eye on with the members, sharing good buying points, and formulating an investment plan together . Now, in the case of Microsoft, if you look under this learnings section, you can see that the EPS is continuously increasing .
Even though it was quite high during the recent corporate announcement, the stock is falling significantly. Microsoft's valuation also has a P ratio of 25, a 4P ratio of 21, and a PAC ratio of 1.17. If the stock price falls further, these figures will decrease, and while the company continues to grow, it is becoming increasingly undervalued .
Therefore, when buying stocks, I believe it is most important to assess the company's value by looking at these figures and financial products, rather than listening to news, media, neighbors, or your older brother . Now, if you look at Oracle, the EPS is fluctuating, but it is showing a steady upward trend.
If you look at Oracle's valuation, the P ratio is 29, the 4P ratio is 19, and the PAC ratio is 1. It is 0.96. It is September 6. That is why, in the case of Oracle, if you had bought at $350 or $360, you might be scared because the stock price has now been cut in half, but I think there is a high possibility that you will regret selling at an undervalued point like this.
Actually, with the members, we absolutely never buy even good stocks like this when the price rises while forming a gap like this . No matter how good a stock is, its price fluctuates, so I tend to buy when it drops to an important support level . In addition to this support level, there are indicators to determine if the stock is oversold; therefore, I review eight indicators and discuss with the members which points indicate a high probability of profit when buying.
I also share every day the point and at which point there is a high probability of partial selling if I have purchased for long-term or short-term investment purposes . If you become interested in the stocks discussed in today's video, I hope you make sure to do more research on your own before making an investment decision .
Please use my video for reference only . Now, since there are quite a few good investment opportunities in the volatile market like now, if you would like to invest together, please click the Pation service link in the description below. I would also like to invest together and meet you in person at the upcoming meeting. I will.
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