저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
드러켄밀러 인터뷰 인용 형식. 연준 금리 인하 기대는 인플레 재상승 위험으로 부적절하다는 시각, 인플레가 다시 오를 가능성이 충분하다고 봄. AI는 인터넷 버블과 달리 실제 이익이 늘고 있어 장기 성장 가능성이 크다고 평가. 엔비디아는 단기 급등 후 일부 매도했으나 재매수 가능성 언급. 진행자는 뉴스 기반 투자 경계와 장기 AI 기업 투자를 강조.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, I hope you are all having a good week. Lately, it seems like investment giants are sharing a lot of market insights through interviews on the news. Each of these interviews is incredibly helpful to me, and I feel like I learn insights I hadn't even considered, so I make sure to listen to them.
In today's video, I’d like to share an interview with Stanley K., the founder of Duquesne Capital and a hedge fund manager who ranks among the top five in the stock investment field. For those who have invested to some extent, Stanley K. is as famous as [names like]. Stanley K. once worked as a portfolio manager at George Soros’s Quantum Fund and generated a profit of approximately 300 billion won in 2008 alone, the year the subprime mortgage crash occurred.
He currently has assets of about 8 trillion won and is a highly competent and respected hedge fund manager who has rarely suffered a loss in the past 40 years. In this recent interview, he discussed his thoughts on the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, his outlook on inflation, and whether the AI hype is a bubble or a new paradigm, much like the internet era.
You shared insights on whether this technology will cause a shift and whether it could bring about changes as significant as the internet in the future. I prepared this video today because I believe it will definitely be of great help to you in your investing. Please make sure to subscribe and like.
Now, let's just listen to the disc and go straight into the video. Seeking Alpha is currently running a 20% discount promotion for the first time in a while, so if you are interested in this platform, please click the link in the description below to receive that 20% discount. I also use Seeking Alpha every day, and I have created a video on how to use this platform to find stocks with a high probability of significant price increases, so if you are interested in the Seeking Alpha platform, please refer to the video I uploaded.
Since the content I create is strictly for informational purposes, please do not buy or sell stocks based solely on the video; please make sure to conduct further research on your own before making a decision. First, I will share my thoughts on the Three Millers' inflation, the Fed's soft landing, and interest rate cuts.
These views aligned significantly with the thoughts I shared in my previous videos, which gave me more confidence in my investment and buying/selling decisions. I think so. As I often tell my Fate Service members, I believe it is actually more dangerous to take what the Federal Reserve says in the news at face value.
What you must understand is that stock prices do not move after the news comes out; rather, news is released in accordance with stock movements. Therefore, if you make investment decisions based solely on news or media content, I believe there is a high probability that you will be stuck with that stock or suffer losses.
When there are many halves in the news regarding a specific stock and articles appearing everywhere claiming it will rise two or three times, it is highly likely that the stock price has already risen significantly, so please be careful. Now, let's listen to the interview. cuts two cuts I'm Why are we even talking cuts?
Because inflation, if you remember, we did trillions of dollars. Because it was 1.7 instead of 2 over a decade, but somehow now that we're at 3 versus 2, we got to start cutting rates to bring in a smooth landing. So to me, it didn't make any sense. It was a huge mistake we got to get rid of forward guidance, all this talking and all this forward guidance.
First of all, we're all wrong. I was quite often involved in discussions about the economy, and when you put for guidance out of the UN, I was wrong. Those who tend to change their minds very rapidly got trapped in the guidance and stuck in it. To some extent, they were stuck in this talk about continuing to cut rates.
Financial conditions just kept melting up, and finally, I guess a month or so ago the Fed PIV, but then the last PR conference seems to be hanging on and not that. And for the life of me, I can't figure out why. Because if you look at the rate of inflation, it's very clear it comes down from very rapid rates, and now, if anything like it's turned up, I don't know where inflation is going to be in a year, or because I don't know what I would.
Actually, I relate to so much of this part, and I have shared my thoughts several times in previous videos. First of all, many people are currently convinced that inflation is being brought under control and will soon drop to 2%, and many say that the possibility of inflation rising again is close to zero.
Personally, however, I think there is a sufficient possibility that inflation will rise again. And as I posted in a video a few days ago, 2 years Previously, inflation had risen to 99.1%, causing the Fed to aggressively raise interest rates from 0% to 5%, which triggered a significant pullback in the market.
However, thanks to that, inflation did actually drop back down to the low 3% range. I previously mentioned that there is absolutely no reason to cut interest rates now and raise inflation again, given how hard it was to bring it down. In this interview, Junk Miller also stated that he hopes the Fed does not undo all the efforts made so far to lower inflation by attempting a rate cut.
Later in the interview, when a host asked if there was a possibility of inflation rising again, he replied that we still need to wait and see, but added that in his opinion, there is definitely a possibility that inflation could rise further. Another point that resonated with me, in the same context, is that when interest rates dropped to 1.7% at one point, the Fed actually printed money to raise inflation to 2%, keeping it in the 2% range for the past decade; however, now inflation is being maintained in the 3% range, which is higher than 2%.
If interest rates are lowered at this point, inflation will rise again, which makes absolutely no sense. He told me that he thought it was completely nonsensical from the moment the talk of interest rate cuts was raised. Now, while not everything these two individuals say is correct, I believe their expertise should never be underestimated, as they have dedicated their entire lives to investing and have weathered every difficult market period.
I find them to be highly capable yet very humble, and as investors I personally follow and respect, I always tend to listen carefully to what they say. So, moving on, let's hear their thoughts on the age of artificial intelligence. " Bullish on the prospects for it, are you first of all? I wasn't early with NVIDIA.
My young partner was early with NVIDIA. He called me in the fall of 22 and said that he thought all this excitement about blockchain was going to be far outweighed by AI. I asked him how to play it, and he told me I should buy this company invia. I didn't even know how to spell it. I bought it, and then a month later, CH PT happened.
Even an old guy like me could figure it out. Okay, what that meant so I substantially increased the position," I said in an interview in June of that year that I expected to own nvidia for two or three years that this was a Mega trend like I'd never seen potentially bigger than the Internet but when the stock went from 150 to 900 I'm not Warren buffett I don't own things for 10 or 20 years I wish I was waren buffett 150 to 900 Yes we did cut that position a lot of other positions in late March I just need a break We've had hell of a run a lot of what we recognized has become recognized by the marketplace Now longterm bullish on II AS We've ever been I also You just wonder if we were all sitting here in 1999 talking about the Internet or anybody was talking about it I don't think anybody would have estimated it would be AS big as it got in 20 years we didn't have the iPhone we didn't have Uber we didn't have Facebook and yet If you bought the nasdaq in 99 it went down 80% before that all came to under There is already a possibility of GPT becoming an artificial corpse It is said that he grasped the situation and bought Nvidia stock, and shortly thereafter, the latest GPT was launched.
Driven by the forecast that demand for GPU chips would explode, he reportedly made a large additional purchase of Nvidia stock. Furthermore, in a previous interview, he had stated that he would hold Nvidia stock for at least two to three years; however, he recently surprised many investors by selling off a large volume of Nvidia stock.
There was clearly a reason for selling the Nvidia stock earlier than expected. According to Jonk Miller, he had predicted that Nvidia stock would double within three years, so he had stated in the previous interview that he would hold it for two or three years. However, since the rally in Nvidia stock that they expected to happen in two or three years had already occurred, he judged that the stock price had risen a bit too much when viewed in stages.
Therefore, he sold the shares he had purchased at the $150 level in March at the $950 level. He added that while many people say the current market is similar to the internet bubble of 1999, in his opinion... He stated that he believes the situation is different from the bubble era. He explained that during the internet bubble, stocks fell by over 80% before beginning to recover and rising significantly for more than 20 years.
However, unlike the internet bubble era, the advancement of AI technology we are currently experiencing is not merely about vision without actual profits; as seen in quarterly earnings, actual profits are increasing significantly. Therefore, rather than a recession or market crash, he believes that if we continue to grow at this pace, stocks will have risen significantly due to the development of AI if we just wait patiently for about five years.
At the end of the interview, he mentioned that although he sold Nvidia because it rose too sharply in an excessively short period, he is highly likely to buy it back soon. He emphasized that the approaching AI era is not a hype bubble, but an innovative technology that will fundamentally change our lives once again, following the internet era.
He concluded by saying that while a recession and a market crash might occur within the next two or three years, looking at the long term—5 to 10 years or more— investing in companies that will lead the AI era will ultimately result in substantial profits after 10 years. I personally believe that investing in growth stocks—which are expected to rise fivefold or tenfold or more—is not a bad investment strategy.
Since data will become the most important resource in the age of AI, I think it is worth seeking out and investing in companies that provide high-demand products or possess large amounts of data. I am sharing this with the Fate service members. If you are interested in my buy/sell recommendations and insights, please click the Fate link in the description below and I hope we can invest together.
Please subscribe and like once again. That is all for today; I, Three Drunker Muller, shared my insights on inflation, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, and the age of AI. If this was helpful in any way, I would be very grateful if you shared it with your fellow members, and I would be even more thankful if you subscribed and liked.
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