저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 약세장은 아직 바닥 확인 전이지만 지금 매도는 가장 위험하며, 장기 투자자는 주식 비중을 유지해야 한다는 주장. 시장 상황: 올해 상반기는 수십 년 만에 가장 나빴고, 광범위한 지수(S&P500·세계지수)가 20% 이상 하락해 약세장 구간에 있다고 진단함. 현금도 인플레이션을 고려하면 마이너스 수익률이고, 암호화폐와 채권도 좋지 않다고 봄. 바닥 판단: 바닥을 정확히 맞추는 것은 불가능하며, 아직 바닥에 도달하지 않았다고 봄. 하락 폭의 상당 부분은 이미 진행됐다고 평가함. 비관론이 커질수록 투매 위험이 높아진다고 경고. 스타일 전망: 약세장에서 가장 많이 빠진 종목군이 회복 초기에 가장 크게 반등하는 경향이 있으며, 이번에는 그 현상이 더 극단적일 것이라고 주장. 올해 상승일에는 성장주가 가치주보다 우세했고, 하락일에는 가치주가 우세했다는 통계를 근거로 듦. 시장 방향이 정해지면 성장·가치 중 어느 쪽이 나을지 판단할 수 있다는 입장. 포트폴리오 전략: 60/40(주식·채권) 방식을 따르지 않았다고 밝힘. 60세로 은퇴 계획이 없다고 말하며, 은퇴를 앞둔 사람이라도 20~30년을 살 수 있으므로 주식 중심 유지가 맞다고 주장. 다만 수년치 생활자금을 현금으로 따로 떼어두고 나머지는 주식으로 가져가라고 권고. 리스크: 기간이 얼마나 길어질지 불확실하며, 현금·채권·암호화폐 모두 매력이 낮다고 봄. 개별 종목 언급은 없음. 출연자 전망: 단기적으로는 하락이 더 이어질 수 있으나 장기적으로 주식 수익률이 좋을 것이라는 낙관적 장기 견해.
다듬은 글
higher yield, but obviously for those who are into bonds for the price, then that's obviously not a safe place to be either. Ken Fischer -- coach even festooned offer fisher investments. Can, it's good to see you. You joined me from Washington state. Look, we know there's no place to hide. But if this market is like this for the foreseeable future, what do you do?
Well first, before we go any further, thank you for having me back on, Richard. Second, I want to say in honor of you, I've got my London stock exchange tie on and I hope you and viewers appreciate the gesture. When you look at a time period like this and from my appearances before, you know, I've been wrong, I didn't expect this to turn into the bear market that it had been to the sport point.
But I also know that this month being the anniversary of my 50th year in this investment business, I also know that when you get to the point where you are down 20% or more on the broad market, S&P 500 or world market, which is both now, it's not very long until you are at the bottom on average. Sometimes a little longer, sometimes a little less, but you've actually gone through quite a lot of the decline.
The most dangerous thing someone can do now is to sell out. But usually you go, the more pessimistic people tend to get, making you more prone to sell out. There is a point that no one seems to note, actually, there are several points no one seems to note, but one that's typically very important when you get to this stage is that the categories that go down the most in a bear market can overwhelmingly to bounce the most in the early phases of recovery whenever you get there.
This time, it's going to be more extreme for another reason people don't see, which is that we've had 60 up days this year and of those, growth has done better than value. A little over 70% of the time, we've had 69 down days, value has done better than growth. 79% of those days. If you tell me where the markets going over the next few months, I can tell you whether value or growth does better goes up, growth will lead -- that might continue.
We need to keep that in mind when we think about portfolios. As we look to discern when, I mean, I think you have hope, only a fool actually tries to hit the bottom, per se. You are never going to get it absolutely spot on. But you are going to get a feeling that now is the time, and we are not there yet, I don't think we are there yet.
Last week we saw -- then next week it's gone. How will we know when we are bouncing along the bottom? We won't. We actually never really do. But let me offer you two points. One, you started off correctly saying, crypto bad, bonds negative returns, cash actually right now has a negative return when you look at inflation.
Where are you going to go? I make this point otherwise recently which is this is kind of like the famous American ghostbusters movie. You can't trust the fire and the police department and the city council, and the mayor, you finally turn for the ghostbusters, who you never believe ordered before. The fact of the matter, in this environment, is it's harder for people to do other sources, so that's going to limit, in my opinion, how far down the bear market goes.
The issue is the duration, which is what you asked about and when we get to the point where people are increasingly pessimistic, you are getting pretty close. I turn the ripe old age of 60 this year and have foolishly not followed always the advice, you know, the 60 40 bonds. The reality is, I'm not planning to retire anytime soon.
So anyone who thinks I am, I'm not. But if I was planning to retire, if I hadn't done my planning and I was still heavily equity based, I would be having sleepless nights. Well, mind you I think that's the wrong way to think about it. Let me help you with that, you know, a slightly different way. You are that age, you are going to, unless there's something seriously wrong with you individually, which you can talk to your doctor about, you are probably going to have 20, 25, maybe even 30 years.
The longer we go, the longer older people tend to live. Life improvements, and medical care. If you look at those periods, stocks tend to do pretty well and they tend to do better than bonds, and they tend to better than other liquid forms. What you really want to do is set aside a few years worth of cash so you can get through a tough time and otherwise, you want to be fully equities because the entire return is
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