저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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영상은 엔비디아의 AI 칩 수요와 블랙웰 출시 가속을 강조하며 주가 상승 여력을 제시한다. 공급망 점검에서 수요가 공급을 웃돌고, TSMC 패키징 증설과 AI 칩 매출 급증(연 38%, 2032년 3840억 달러 전망)을 근거로 든다. 현재 밸류에이션은 선행 실적 기준 중간~고 30배대로 저렴하다고 주장하며, PEG 0.14·CNN 공포탐욕지수 71.9(탐욕) 등을 제시한다. 반면 반독점 조사에 대해서는 정부 규제가 기업과 소비자에게 불리하다고 비판한다.
다듬은 글
and then let's go back to what this rally is really about it's about one stock it's 916 I haven't mentioned yet it's about Nvidia and yesterday Nvidia had a global s Summit where I have to tell you when I was looking at what was covered here this is what was covered you had health Industrial Revolution Financial Plus cyber climate autonomous and then my favorite space where they are now setting up a huge radio Telegraph to see who is transmitting to us from outer space talking to us ah yes of course the aliens they're not aliens they're trying to get in touch with us it doesn't make them aliens for people go over the board they are trying to call us and Nvidia is the operator absolutely Wong is an alien okay no he's hardly he's said actually a renaissance man not unlike Da Vinci but I think what's interesting is and I'm not not being I'm I'm talking about someone who is thinking so bigger than we are I know I know by the way Nvidia is working on it sixth day higher uh the first higher high since June thank you bespoke I think Jensen's wealth now eclipsing Intel's Market he had a better year than Intel he sure did over a 100 billion in wealth Intel obviously by the way yesterday Microsoft's azard tweeted it's now officially the first Cloud running nvidia's gb200 Blackwell AI servers but how about how many open AI also announcing as well apparently that they've received some uh shipments that's October 8th right has a third quarter that ends fiscal third quarter ends in October so that should imply what Blackwell revenues actually start to hit yes and this qu yelds yes and the yields are going to get better and better and what you're going to end up seeing that they're going to produce say 99% of these things are going to work right now they they do not have that kind of yield and David what you missed is that your buddy pal friend Elon Musk has accumulated a number of these high powered chips to create the greatest supercomputer of all time and what will he use that for well that's xai yeah that's a separate company I didn't say Tesla and he's already got I believe a huge data center up and running already in Tennessee with the money they raised at xai he's contacted what governor Shapiro in Pennsylvania Inc he did call Shapiro he said he's Mr battle State um you know I don't I mean one is for AI for xai and its Mission and the other obviously is Tesla and self-driving go to that last conference call when he actually gave a nod to Jensen Wong I think it was his first nod in history realize that Jensen Wong is smarter than he is when it comes to this that's what he said's go there's a podcast David no one knows that you're you're dissing me by not talking to me it's a podcast every day you can just go to it okay big news in the stock market is turning heads today if you've been following the buzz surrounding the semiconductor sector get ready for a jaw-dropping revelation Nvidia the tech World Behemoth known for redefining the Realms of artificial intelligence is back in the spotlight amid a buzzworthy upheaval in the market we've seen nvidia's stock deliver electrifying returns over the past 2 years yet Whispers of doubt have crept in over the last few months regarding its AI Ambitions and growth velocity as we inch closer to 2025 the anticipation builds will Nvidia retake the podium with another groundbreaking run or will it stall under the pressure in this riveting exploration we'll delve deep into nvidia's AI chip Dynamics uncovering the secrets behind its present flat performance and future promise keep your ears perked and eyes peeled there's more to this unfolding Saga than meets the eye from conversational undertones to a hint of humor buckle up as we navigate the high voltage world of stocks featuring giant leaps in technology and Market forecasts that might just change the way you think about investing welcome back everyone to invest ocracy we have reason to believe that just department is investigating Nvidia for dominance in the AI chip Market what can I say about this one Nvidia invented the AI chip Market it would not exist without them should we blame them for making such an amazing product that it created an entire industry remember Nvidia owns this business because it spent tens of billions of dollars developing the best chips they made a huge bet on artificial intelligence many many years before anyone was taking it seriously but it could have blown up in their faces the risks were enormous should Nvidia fund startups that can take away their market share hey I got an idea how about a special monitor point to the company to sure that it doesn't get too much of a leader over the competition no forget that I got a better idea maybe justice department should just demand that CEO Jenson Wong work from home for maybe four days only like everybody else uh and then maybe the chip the other guys can catch up look we know these big tech companies are powerful they're supposed to be powerful they have tons of customers and hundreds of billions of dollars in their cfers they have scale and competitive modes and pretty much everything else they need to win just like we were taught to do when we starting a business but believe me these companies are the Envy of the world some of them seem to be the only enties that the People's Republic of China is actually afraid of so many countries spend so much money trying to prop up companies they consider national champions but in America what do we do we kneecap them believe me if the courts agree with the justice and the FDC let me tell you something here's what's going to happen your prices ain't coming down they're going up we hurt these companies too much and we don't have to worry the PRC will come in with something subsidized by their government that will happily step in the void oh one more thing have you noticed the wealth created by these companies do you think that's all being hoarded by the exec no you could own the stocks right alongside them in fact as I tell CBC investing club members daily you should bottom line I find this endless string of government investigations wrong-headed pointless and frankly even anti-American sadly it's the American government so upset at the power of these companies that's insisting the tech Titans should simply be less good to which I say good for who good for what certainly not us as the curtain Rises on nvidia's current standing in the stock market a saga emerges that's as intriguing as any soap opera but with a lot more zeros involved a Titan in the tech Arena nvidia's prowess in AI chips is near legendary yet the lingering 3-month stagnation of its stock has left some investors furiously scratching their heads let's dissect this conundrum they say investing in Nvidia is like dating in the tech World exhilarating unpredictable and occasionally nerve-wracking just like when you're trying to swipe right on a stable relationship but end up with the wild card you know there's potential but is it worth the risk recent data suggests it might just be market research firm trendforce forecast that nvidia's shipments of AI gpus will soar by 55% in 2025 propelled by the emergence of their nextg Blackwell processors with Blackwell predicted to represent a whopping 80% of nvidia's AI chip shipments it seems there's a storm brewing a storm of profit potential this is complemented by mizuo the Japanese Investment Bank upgrading its forecast of nvidia's shipments by an 8 to 10% range as they highlight a strengthening supply chain nvidia's alliance with tsmc is a critical piece in this Grand puzzle tsmc is set to double its Advanced packaging capacity Paving the way for NVIDIA to ramp up production of these hyped AI chips indeed by 2026 tsmc aims to maintain an annual growth rate of 60% in its chip on wafer on substrate packaging think of it as sending a smartphone to finishing school it emerges sleer faster and frankly irresistiblvidia's AI Summit in Washington DC is wrapping up today and nearly propelled the shares to a new all-time high the company is focused on Energy Efficiency and entprise software as they work to avoid being boxed in as just a processor company worth a couple trillion dollars meanwhile foxcon is announcing plans to build the world's largest manufacturing facility for a key component of nvidia's Blackwell platform here to discuss is Stacy Stacy rasgon he senior analyst F Bernstein good to have you Stacy let's start with the big picture takeaways on Nvidia after this DC Summit um the shares almost kissed that that new high or made a new high this morning yeah they did they get look I I mean people are getting excited about the story again especially as we approach um earnings and then year end into next year as their new platform black ball really starts to ramp and look by all indications their own commentary all the supply chain checks and and everything else demand for this product just just looks off the charts and you know it's usually a good time to be owning Nvidia into the into the launch of a product cycle and that's where we are right now and this this cycle if the checks are any indication has the potential to be massive so people are getting really excited about it and maybe it's just a kind of near-term technical analysis but I listen to Katie Stockton she says you know maybe it's range Bound for now maybe we go back uh under a 100 you know I don't there's there's been a lot of excitement and a lot of hype and when I know about Blackwell you think well most people know yeah I mean the last time it went under 100 was when there were some rumors about some delays to Blackwell some redesigns to some of the chip components that are on it and and as it turns out there were some issues they were able to sort of work through it in a relatively quick fashion and it kind of turned into sort of an a nothing burger at least from the from the standpoint of the trajectory of the ramp it doesn't look like it slowed anything and but that was the last time it went under 100 a short of anything like dramatic like that I don't know if we we see that anymore like like I said at this point the indications that the numbers are are much more likely I think to have an upward bias and a downward bias and I I suspect that's true for the stock as well um as we get into the ramp into the end of the year now to put numbers behind the buzz Allied market research anticipates AI chip sales to see an annual surge of 38% through to 203 2 potentially raking in $384 billion in Revenue Nvidia holding an impressive 70 to 95% market share stands to be the top beneficiary those are not just numbers they're firework displays of opportunity of course the classic stock market joke that's as Timeless as Buy Low sell High might rephrase here as the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient especially relevant when studying nvidia's current valuation metrics despite the soaring Whispers of its stocks being overvalued with a trailing PE ratio of 58 against the NASDAQ 100 index's average of 32 Nvidia continues to defy these Notions with robust growth in truth its earnings multiple lingers below its own 5-year average PE of 72 and with a PEG ratio of just 0.14 it sits comfortably in the undervalued territory based on its growth predictions and what does the sentiment in the trenches look like the CNN Money fear and G index signals that we're in the greed Zone with a reading of 71.9 suggesting that market sentiment is driving towards optimism noteworthy is the positively bullish session for technology stocks where Nvidia found itself reprising its role as a prominent player alongside broadcom while the nfi's report on small business optimism presents a modest rise the underlying narrative is clear sites are set high with fiscal conditions proving favorable the US budget deficit shrank notably bringing a renewed slap of confidence to investors from International Banks to individual stakeholders everyone is keeping a close watch wary yet intrigued by nvidia's next move but amidst the metrics and fiscal talk here's a light-hearted pause investing in envidia could be as thrilling as catching your favorite tech geek mastering an AI beatbox unexpected yet incredibly impressive when executed right with Nvidia positioned strongly bolstered by tsmc's enhanced production prowess and an industry hungry for AI Innovation it reads like a modern Financial epic investors would be wise to consider such Dynamics after all the markets like life seem to have a knack for rewarding those who stay informed and act decisive real quickly I want to ask you about of the rest of the space as well but what do you have for the the PE here I mean what are the earnings that you that the market is expecting and and what do you think is possible and what should the multiple be for a company growing like this yeah you the multiples are actually not that expensive if if you believe the numbers I think the sell side's like somewhere around four bucks maybe a little more I suspect the the buy side the investors are are higher they're probably closer to 450 or five um and and again if you if you look at some of the supply chain checks and you see where the revenues could go if the demand is sufficient to meet the supply that is likely to be available you could get numbers that are higher than that and so if the numbers are any close to being correct the stocks you know 1 130 it's called like mid to high 30s multiple on you know a realistic kind of number it's it's not that expensive and I've made this point before it's much cheaper today than it was before the Run started a year and a half ago right because the the stocks G up a ton but the earnings have gone up much much more than the than the stock so as long as these numbers are sustainable and but that's the the controversy is is the numbers have gotten so big so quickly like is it sustainable that is the question but for now I like I said before I suspect numbers have much are much more likely to be going up versus down is it cyclical I mean historically speaking I mean the new chip is always you know gets a high multiple but over time uh they become too cular they uh cyclical they get lower multiples as a result because investors don't like the ups and downs and some of the Bulls on this have to say basically that it's not going to be cyclical this time around in order to justify trading where it is and with the where they are and what's going on with the rest of the industry in terms of supply and demand right now yeah you bet if we look at the rest of the industry like this will be an upturn year for semis in general but I wouldn't say it's a healthy upturn like memory is going to grow a lot because memory was horrendous last year and actually they took they took Supply offline because the demand was so horrible and because of that pricing went up and so memory will be good um you know uh PCS and smartphones they're okay you know you're probably not getting a lot of growth and there's some worries about things like CPU inventory and PCs um data center like AI is off the charts but traditional data center networking and CPUs are pretty weak industrial has been weak it looks like maybe some parts of that are bottom but we're not seeing a ton of signs of recovery yet and Automotive is now starting to roll over maybe in a pretty big way we've had a number of oems in in recent weeks um have negatively pre-announced in in in some pretty fashion and so in general like outside of AI I wouldn't say that things look fantastic but AI demand like like like I said it right right now it's much more you know it's being gated by Supply rather than demand they're selling everything that they can make right now in Ai and fortun for NVIDIA that that's where they are that's where they play up 2,000% in the past two years one of the great stories uh you got $155 price Target I think it has a little bit left to go as we stand at this intersection of technology and opportunity Nvidia emerges as a beacon for investors searching to harness the waves of innovation amidst the static of today's market uncertainties Nvidia presents a comp selling Case underscored by its commanding presence in AI chipset production and expanding Partnerships the recent months of flat performance should be viewed not as an end but as the quiet before another evolutionary leap looking ahead 2025 promises to be a dynamic year for NVIDIA as they capitalize on new advancements and increasing demand as tsmc fortifies its packaging capacity and Global AI chip sales are poised to Surge Nvidia seems well equipped to navigate the road ahead likely outperforming and appealing to both seasoned investors and newcomers alike in the broader picture the favorable sentiment reflected in the rising indices and economic indicators paints a landscape ripe with potential Nvidia isn't just a tech company it's a narrative of Relentless Innovation strategic prowess and Market leadership while guitars May gather dust nvidia's continued quest in the AI domain promises anything but inactivity investors experts and Skeptics what do you think about these prospects are you ready to be part of nvidia's next chapter don't be a stranger share your views and keep the conversation sparking after all in the world of stock Investments it's your move that counts the most so Gear Up make informed decisions and may your portfolios reflect your financial aspiration
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