저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 테슬라 로보택시 이벤트가 투자자 기대에 못 미쳤다는 시장 반응과 달리, 사이버캡·옵티머스·무감독 FSD가 향후 3~4년 내 테슬라의 게임체인저가 될 것이라고 주장한다. 사이버캡 7~8만 대 도로 진입(2026~27), 마일당 비용 20~40센트, 3~4년 후 이익의 20~30% 기여 가능성을 제시하며 AI 스토리를 가장 저평가된 AI 종목으로 본다. 다만 세부 정보 부족은 인정하며 올해 말~내년 초까지 저가형 차량·코스트 로드맵 공개를 요구한다. 규제(주별 승인)는 향후 12~24개월 내 해결 가능하다고 본다. 자산 예측 발언은 테슬라에 집중되며, 엔비디아 등 AI 수혜주를 언급했으나 구체적 방향 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
I've covered Tech 25 years what I saw yesterday in La I think it was a game changer and and and look short on details I get it but this is the new chapter the new book for Tesla what did you actually see Dan that got you so excited cuz for the majority of us we're sort of trying to guess what we're looking at we weren't at the event we don't know how good um the the sort of autonomous um cyber cab looks like we saw Optimus which is those robots and the sort of suggestion that this could cost the same as a car and be like a personal robot in your house I mean it is a vision of the future that most of us quite frankly can't grasp can you see because you were there in person real potential versus as CLA was saying sort of sci-fi optimism well yeah look well CLA about sci-fi optimism maybe that was 3 four years ago here you look at Cyber cab I I think there could be 70 80,000 of these on the road as we go into 2026 2027 in terms of test driving it smooth ride no issues in terms of what I see with the interventions know like I feel like they are getting closer and closer to which essentially full autonomous and those cars no steering wheel no pedals when you look at Optimus I mean you're talking about a robot that you're interacting with that's literally making margaritas for guas while taking selfies the point is like this now goes into a new age you about AI this is going to be one of the biggest use cases when it comes to robotic as well as autonomous you know I read one article today Dan that was saying that actually this highlights um how much potential actually Nvidia has and how advanced they are but also for other players be it Uber um that are in this autonomous vehicle space actually how Advance they are relative to Tesla do you buy any of that look I it's not a zero some game I mean we're talking about we're in as me and you have talk about many times fourth Industrial Revolution the AI Revolution led by Godfather of AI Jens Nidia but but many others across pack are going to be huge winners from Apple to Amazon to Uber and I continue to think PESA is front and center now look scarce details we all know musk is not going to you know really go up there and give so many details this LS the groundwork what I kind of view is this AI chapter this really AI future at Tesla very quickly Dan do you think they could give us more detail if if they wanted to I think they also have to be careful can't give away the Playbook right so last thing they want to do give details that maybe have to get pushed back you don't want you want to take Genie out of the bottle can't put it back in these were products you saw from anyone that was at that event I if you came away more negative you know I just I don't really understand that just given what I saw from a pure technology perspec imagine an unseen chessboard in the universe's wealth game where the pieces are names like musk Zuckerberg and Bezos today's intriguing move involves not just the fortunes but also the unpredictable maneuvers of Tesla Inc and its audacious CEO Elon Musk while Tesla's stock dipped by 10% this year musk's wealth rocketed upward positioning him again at the peak of financial Titans worldwide this unexpected twist has captivated the financial masses and set prediction markets AB Buzz attempting to forecast the world's richest person by the end of 2024 at the heart of this narrative are familiar Titans such as Amazon's Jeff Bezos and oracle's Larry Ellison each vying for their place on this Elite leaderboard stick around as we unravel what makes this financial Drama worth every dollar of attention welcome back everyone to invest docy shares of Tesla sinking today after its Robo tax the event underwhelmed investors several analyst notes calling it quote disappointing my next guest says he disagrees says the event was a quote glimpse of the future and the Next Generation Transportation joining me now post 9's W bushes Dan Ives so so you say you left that event in which you were there in person more bullish on this story how I mean it's all about now clearly details were obviously scarce and that's par why the stock's down but in terms of cyber Cab in terms of what we saw what's really going to be over the next call it 18 24 months you look at Optimus in terms of what I view is robotics where right now there's no value for Optimus in the story and I think most importantly in terms of the unsupervised FSD that's going to really be rolled out throughout all the Tesla models at least California Texas into next year and I think that's why to me I'm not talking in the next Quarter Two that's moving the needle but in terms of the next few years I believe it's a game changer to the broader story you saw what might be not what is and there really is no real idea of when exactly this is actually going to hit the street you want to take issue with that well i' say first and look uh in terms of price per mile I think the big Focus was could they get under 50 cents heal must talked about 20 cents per mile potential with taxes 30 to 40 cents when you look at Cyber cab and I clearly the twers Cyber cab this is something where as this goes through the next 3 to four years there's no reason this can ultimately be 10 15 20% overall profits for Tesla as is all Rams up just given what our view of the overall ride sharing market and what they could gain and it comes down to 1.5 billion miles driven so the stock had a significant move on anticipation of this event the event to many underwhelmed therefore not justifying the multiple that the stock has expanded to that's JP Morgan's notee today they see substantial risk to multiple of multiple compression after the big rally into what they call a underwhelming day I think we look back at last night 3 four years from now is a historical moment and the reason I say that because they just because they held an event and and showed you these these prototypes sure it's well I think it's it's more than prototypes because ultimately I think the next leg of the story in terms of autonomous I believe they will be a clear leader in broader autonomous and I think it shows now when you look at Cyber cab that's just one piece I think the other reason the stock's down is model 2 lower cost vehicle they didn't show it I think they're not going to show we never expected that they're going to show that at the event I still believe that's the 2025 story so I think broader you look at I think demand stabilizing just a robust China quarter I think cogs is going to come down you got model 2 or 2.5 in 2025 and then when I look at the future next 2 3 years you look at Cyber cap you look at Optimus you look at just some of the parts I argue the AI story it is the most undervalued AI name in in the market understand but in the ever evolving Saga of wealth none seem as dynamic or as steeped in mystery as Elon musk's Ascent despite Tesla's stock stumbling musk's fortunes kept ascending fueling both admiration and curiosity as Bloomberg highlights musk's wealth sits at an impressive $255 billion amplifying by $25.7 billion this year despite Tesla's stock hiccup meanwhile Amazon's Bezos and lvmh's Bernard Arno watch from staggered positions with Stellar rises from meta's Mark Zuckerberg and nvidia's Jensen hang providing unexpected performances hang almost scoring points like a beloved Underdog at the investing Olympics but what grants musk such immunity to Tesla's share dips is it his influence strategy or perhaps his unique ability akin to stock market Alchemy it brings to mind what Warren Buffett once said the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient perhaps musk's resilience lies in his Visionary patience combined with his trademark unpredictability two traits investors might want as North Stars consider the buzz from ki's prediction markets where some folks quite literally are betting the house with $72,000 already staked on predictions around the richest individual come year end investors are chiming in as if this is Super Bowl betting season musk holds a towering 82% off ODS in this cerebral venue lending the drama of his journey a fascinating gambling spi Tesl'm trying to get my arms around how you're you're trying to value a stock based on some level of identifiable fundamentals sure are are you telling me that you came away from that event last night satisfied with the details that you got yeah and because you're your colleagues at other places um were not Adam Jonas that's it disappointing lack of detail Tony sanagi stunningly absent in in detail Wells Fargo little substance are you telling me that you were fulfilled in the detail that you learned no we called out details were scarce that was a negative and it's a reason to that we wanted more details but to me with musk and Tesla in an event like that you're maybe not going to get as many details right there as you'd want but it the reason we came out so positive in terms of the test drives and if you look at Cyber cab and you look now at production and this is real we're not talking prototype 2026 they start to produce this we go into next year this starts to become more and more of reality and it all comes down to us FSD FSD penetration increases within Tesla the the story massively changes when when do you when do you need more details when when when are you when do you sit back and you say you know what I I've given the benefit of the doubt on this story whereas many of the others who cover this stock have not sure when when do you want details well I think by by the by later this year early next year you basically need to have some details on when the lower cost vehicle is coming out what production looks like what in terms of cyber cab and overall FSD what the roll out is going to look like throughout 2025 and and most importantly cogs because the whole goal here is that Tesla's going to be able to decrease Cog significantly especially with the nextg platform if that happens the you get numbers into next year or two I think they're underestimated by 40 50% that's what we need to see if we sit here 6 months from now and they didn't give us that then at that point you you probably do have to reevaluate things but I don't I I think they have a lot more coming than they ever have in the story if I think back the last few years turning our gaze to broader implications one can't sideline how musk's Financial Saga shoulders conversations over wealth inequality Tesla's wealth engine reflective of broader Market behaviors highlights sharp wealth divides as CNBC reports and economic pundits like James pukas indicate this isn't just about musling into wealth it's the richest growing slice of the American Financial pie musk leads yes but he also spotlights a vital dialogue taxing the exponentially wealthy the landscape thus isn't merely economic it's evolving into a moral and fiscal narrative replete with tensions over policy and wealth equitability perhaps musk's view mirrors Edward aby's take on growth it's the ideology of the cancer cell exponential stock market yields after all can carry risks as significant as their rewards Tesla soaring from $30 per share to near $300 within pandemic Windows surely testifies to that yet it begs a perennial investor question when to courageously hold and when to prudently fold this financial drama's Crescendo looks toward musk's rumored trillionaire status by 2027 based on projections that hinge heavily on Tesla's stock future proponents of this view foresee a historic wealth threshold where musk doesn't just lead he transcends into the peculiar Realms of the ultra wealthy the first to breach trillion doll ceilings this could set a precedent repositioning stock gains and their socioeconomic impacts squarely under Global scrutiny as tweets and digital chatter Echo with analysis and predictions it surfaces one undeniable truth whether you love it or debate it musk's trajectory is a financial firework igniting discussions from Wall Street to living rooms worldwid Dan what are we going to get are we going to get info on uh cost per mile overall scaling the Cyber cab are we going to get info on whether they have a ride sharing app or Insurance costs I don't know I want some details here are you going to get them yeah I I think it's actually going to be heavy on details I think importantly this is really showing autonomous in terms of true autonomous as we go to level four level five this is really going to be a game Cher for Tesla and I think they're going to show on Cyber cab and the rle up I think by the end of next year this is something within certain cities that will be you know ultimately a reality and I think when you actually start to go through per mile and you look at miles driven I think from a fleet perspective even relative to what we see with wayo and everyone else this is I think it's a new chapter for Tesla you do not walk away shrug the shoulders I think this is a game changer you do all right so you're are you do you think you're going to walk away with enough information to put a model together a discounted cash flow model or something based on your own assumptions in terms of where this thing goes that you know you can start to come to a a a number in terms of per share as to what it's going to mean for the company yeah I mean to me it's really okay what's the timetable now clearly obviously you know some of the promises in the past have not worked out here I think we're talking not just by the end of the next year but what's the ramble of the next few years three to four years what could that mean in terms of for the fleet six million cars out there potentially eight or 10 over the next few years what ultimately does that mean this is pure margins this is really building out a whole new business for Tesla and I think we could be looking at something based on our math three four years out this could be 20 30% overall profits 20 to 30% overall profits for the of the of the company's profits will be from their effort here I mean you say that it's a uh represents a trillion dollars of value for Tesla over the coming years how do you get to that number I mean there I just look at look at FSD look at autonomous relative to cars in the road this is not just for Tesla it's RV that they're ultimately going to OEM this technology and when and and when you look at even some of the numbers out there I mean we could be talking about 10 20 billion annually per year that they're starting to to ultimately deliver when this ultimately gets to scale and I don't view this necessarily as a massive threat to Uber but just look what Uber did ride so I think when we look at the broader Market here and ultimately the software driven and the margins I I view this this will be a day we look back at 3 four years from now that actually start to change the next phase of the Tesla story you don't worry Dan about the regulatory approval needed for autonomous vehicles on a state-by-state basis which is what where they're given I guess 29 States in Washington DC currently have autonomous vehicles operation mandates and I guess there are certain friendlier States like Texas but isn't that a factor here oh clear look I think David's question on the cost per mile that's something I'd expect to hear about and that's important in terms of what we're what we're looking at regulatories the biggest hurdle and I think that's something state byst state on the federal side they're clearly they're going to have work cut out for them but that is something I think it starts tonight but over the coming 12 18 24 months I think regulatory ultimately is something that they're going to be able to sort of navigate through and I think that's the important thing tonight not just the technology showing how we get there what the road map is so what's the verdict on Tesla amidst this Whirlwind of speculation and financial theatrics musk's remarkable rise tethered subtly yet powerfully to Tesla's prospects makes a case that could sway even the most skeptical investor the dance of stock fluctuations notwithstanding Tesla stands resilient carving a path that mirrors not just bold Innovation but also consequential Legacy forecasts from Market analysts provide an optimistic Outlook hinting at Tesla's robust potential to rebound and reward its stalwarts richly in the coming fiscal chapters positioned now as a Bastion of innovation Tesla invites one to Envision future dividends not just as numbers but as Echoes of strategic courage and technological foresight nevertheless one must weigh is betting on Tesla akin to aligning oneself with a Visionary compass in closing the narrative encircling Tesla and musk is more than numbers and headlines it's a saga a wash with Grandeur risk and infinite possibilities but the million dooll question remains would you place your chips alongside musk in this high stakes Financial Saga share your thoughts and dare to speculate perhaps the next Market twist could very well depend on perspectives as vibrant as you Tesl
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