저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 인프라 투자 수요와 반도체 비중 확대가 지속된다는 낙관론. 반도체는 S&P500 비중 10.7%(고점 12.6%)이나 순이익 비중은 약 7.5%로 상승, 노동력 부족에 따른 자동화 투자가 Tech 수요를 견인한다고 주장. 빅테크 AI 투자(MS, 알파벳 등)와 엔비디아·브로드컴·마이크론 실적을 긍정 평가. 과열 우려에도 AI는 실재하는 흐름이며 Covington의 버블 우려는 과거 PC 사례처럼 빗나갈 수 있다고 봄. 브로드컴은 AI 사업 외 VMware로 마진·현금흐름 개선을 근거로 선호.
다듬은 글
so um want to do this AI stuff yeah quickly we can't get out of here without talking about semis so semis are now 10.7% of the S&P 500 down from a peak of 12.6% as the market went higher mind you by the way um and it's this is not uh this is not phony manipulation they're 7.5% of net income of the S&P 500 up from uh I don't know 4% before before this AI wave C like profits are driving them higher they're a bigger percent of Market cap there are bigger percent of the overall profit corporate profits you can't extrapolate this this kind of thing out forever is it overdone already well I would say almost in my mind I think the semiconductor intensity of everything we buy is going up yeah so I I everything has a chip in it yeah everything has a chip it may not be an an Nvidia chip but it has a chip and I I would say to me that's been observable from early on and and now that we're more of a digital economy it makes more sense you know more of our GDP growth is also native digital as well so given that you think that technology is going to become you say likely become 50% of S&P 500 I'm guessing you think that AI will not will not be a bust that's right I think AI is uh what's in this this is there's a lot there's a lot going on here yeah this is a multi- layer chart okay um the top half of this chart which looks like waves is the measure of the gap between the the number of prime age workers or sorry total working age total working age population versus people so like when this wave is positive that means you have a shortage of workers relative to the total population okay got it and then you'd think what what do companies do when you have Labor shortage you have to invest in automation yes so then the bottom chart is text price ratio to the S&P and it's gone parabolic every time there so every time there's a long labor shortage which I think we just lived through the result is that companies invest more in Tech yeah because otherwise you have inflation well we just had like the mother of all prolonged inflation issues and labor shortages yeah outside of the 70s yeah so it would stand to reason companies are taking a lot of meetings now about how do we make sure this never happens again that's right and then a second overlay on on top of this is that this the global labor shortage is even bigger yeah and the US is the prim supplier of Technology worker replacement big news from the stock market has turned heads and piqued the interest of investors worldwide The Latest Buzz centers on the remarkable advancements and investments in artificial intelligence by Tech giants like Nvidia Corp broadcom Incorporated and Micron Technology Incorporated these leading companies along with investment Titans Microsoft Corporation alphabet Incorporated Amazon Incorporated and meta platforms Incorporated appear to be writing a powerful AI wave that shows no signs of slowing down if you've been wondering where to place your next big bet fasten your seat belt as we delve into the recent quarterly performance Hefty Investments and future projections of these industry Titans welcome back everyone to investra so I have a whole chapter in my new book and the chapter is called just own the damn robots I still think that's like the most obvious investment thesis that ex I don't know which stock at any given time but like it just seems the Tailwind there is permanent yeah might have a couple of down quarters like in 2022 but like bigger picture there is no company in America that's like how could we spend less on Tech so black rock is preparing to launch this from the journal a more than $30 billion AI investment fund $30 billion with Microsoft to build data centers and energy projects to meet growing demands steming from AI wow yeah and that's probably not enough money right cuz I think OB AI capex is like 50 billion well there's a debate internally at um at Goldman Sachs you probably read the article this week uh is in the New York Times They have an analyst named Jim Covington and he says it I was scarred by the dot bust he was like a 22-year-old got his first Analyst job at Goldman Sachs and they laid off his whole group within a couple of years so I think he's acknowledging that he looks at things through that prism but he's basically saying anytime in history where we build build too much of something that no one really needs it ends up being not great and he's seeing the same parallels now he's basically saying I don't see where the ROI is on a trillion dollars in spending um so Goldman very wisely they have some really bullish people on AI there too which of course they do they turned it into content they had their biggest AI bll debate this guy their biggest AI skeptic and they invited an audience so this is the biggest Investment Bank in the world not sure whether or not AI is 2.0 or something different so I think it's hard for everyone to understand like did we bid these stocks up too much or maybe are we underestimating I mean open AI is what 100 what did they raise at 100 was it 150 yeah I mean these are so right and and and now they're going to be full-blown for profit they're not going to pretend that they're doing charity work uh but how like how do you know that this AI thing isn't setting us up for the even though the turned out to be real it also turned out to be a lot of wasteful investment leading up to it how do you like how could you really be sure that we're not doing the same thing again um we we don't right without perfect foresight but I think Covington should review those interviews in the 80s where people debated the personal computer and it was the experts that dismissed the future of personal okay so there's been Skeptics for every technology wave okay he could also be right he could be right and then wrong long term that's another possibility so and yeah and one thing that people haven't studied is after the doc bust of 99 the biggest stock winners were the dot stocks you know like the ones that survived yeah cuz once see when when Fiber prices collapsed that open the world for Price Line eBay social media and then and the structure was very favorable there was no reciprocal termination so Netflix could broadcast without paying for Carriage on the internet once upon a time predicting the future meant gazing into a crystal ball today it means turning to a Silicon Valley server powered by nvidia's gpus Nvidia Corp has reported a stellar quarterly performance staunchly supported by an insatiable demand for its AI powerered Hardware broadcom has mirrored this success delivering robust earnings that underline how crucial semiconductors have become in the AI Revolution Micron Technology another heavyweight in this arena is equally bullish booed by their Advanced memory Solutions fueling sophisticated AI applications collectively these three companies are making it clear AI is not just the future it's the present in a recent tweet Tech analyst Jane Doe declared it's an AI Gold Rush and Nvidia broadcom and Micron are the pickaxes the metaphor captures the essence of what's happening these companies provide indispensable tools that power today today's AI Innovations not surprisingly the market has reacted positively Nvidia for instance saw its stock price Jump by 10% following the announcement of its latest quarterly results broadcom and Micron have also enjoyed similar upswings with significant increases in their stock prices over the past quarter adding to this optimism hyperscalers like Microsoft Corp alphabet Incorporated amazon.com Incorporated and meta platforms Incorporated are not just riding the AI wave they're building the tsunami in Brazil Microsoft has committed a whopping 14.7 billion hais $2.7 billion to its cloud and AI infrastructure over the next 3 years this move is part of its Grand connect AI program aiming to train 5 million people in AI skills to say Microsoft is bullish on AI would be an understatement they're practically making it the Cornerstone of their future strategy and let's not forget the $1.3 billion earmarked for similar initiatives in Mexico it's as if Microsoft is making sure that the next generation of AI experts is trained on their home turf mean everybody says to you oh you're in the investment business what do you think about Nvidia and they there are people who have no idea what Nvidia is feel you feel like that's cooled down a little bit yes yes but that's good that is healthier for the market it's G stop it's like we should all own gamestock because we heard it from the person cutting our hair I don't think so so it's the same Dynamic you have to have something broader and the professionals who are buying these stocks I mean we know the companies we're buying it's not just the S&P index that's that's moving higher it's other buying in addition to it I'm not suggesting we're not going to have Nvidia earnings watch parties any anymore because there's still going to be a thing but it does feel like a little bit of the fervor about that has cooled a bit which is which is good I mean you make the argument that that that's good now you know outside of the mega caps you do have the filing of an IPO by a chip maker it's uh Sarah Bross maybe they'll take on Nvidia uh the latest funding round valued that company 4 billion backers include Sam Alman code2 altimeter Benchmark uh plant to go public uh in the NASDAQ I don't know B OFA today says the highest owned semis still are relatively underweight if you if you want to believe that alphabet Inc not one to be left behind is investing heavily in South Carolina with plans to build two new data centers the $3.3 billion investment will certainly make waves in the local economy potentially creating hundreds of operational jobs alphabet has committed $2 billion to facilities in Dorchester County and $1.3 billion in Berkeley County this is not just about erecting build buildings it's a sign of a strategic shift towards bolstering the backbone of their AI infrastructure Reuters has reported that Amazon and meta platforms are similarly vested in their AI advancements continuously developing new capabilities and improving existing Frameworks as per the South Carolina governor's office these Investments aim to shore up their technological prowess to stay ahead in the fiercely competitive AI landscape meanwhile Intel Corp is in the news for its Valiant effort to secure $8.5 billion in direct funding from from the US government to rejuvenate its struggling operations the chip maker is racing Against Time hoping to finalize this deal before the year's end Intel is also exploring stake sales to companies like Qualcomm Inc but there are Whispers of potential antitrust issues that could complicate matters further according to a tweet from influential Senator John Doe Intel must walk a tight RPP subsidies should create jobs not just bolster bottom lines such scrutiny only adds drama to Intel's quest for Resurgence among among all these high stakes Maneuvers it's worth noting that semiconductor ETFs such as vanic semiconductor ETF and ishares semiconductor ETF have equally benefited from the AI boom these ETFs have gained 5% to 6% over the last 5 days reflecting growing investor confidence in the semiconductor sector as a whole the ripple effect of these Investments indicates that the market is bullish on Tech particularly anything associated with AI know I am yeah but that's what happens when you're at 8% of the S&P you know or or 6% 6 and a half% with Nvidia and whatever it is 2% with broadcom that's 10% and two names close to I mean you can't can't be overweight otherwise you only have six stocks in your portfolio so that so so that's not that that stat is not telling of not relevant an opportunity that exists that's how it's being painted I think it's interesting actually I mean I've been adding to broadcom and lamb research on on the kind of the the declines if you will they're volatile stocks you get a look every once in a while right so I think that broadcom to me is just the one that I wanted to bet on and versus Nvidia I mean I'm still up quite a bit in it hasn't done as well but I think you can still make a lot of money I mean why I like broadc because that their AI business certainly is growing three to fourfold right but they also have VMware and that actually changes the story completely in terms of software in terms of margins and free cash flow and so to me that's the one I'm betting on but I kind of like the fact that if if that is in fact true that people are underweight semis that's not a bad sign well it it's mostly because they're underweight Nvidia and it's like saying people are underweight Apple almost everybody is or underweight Microsoft I I yeah I get that but if you added up everything what would it be now I don't know 14% of the S&P I I don't know it's a big number it's hard hard to be overweight if you're considering an investment in the stock market the surging AI sector underscores that now might be a golden opportunity Nvidia broadcom and Micron are not just riding the wave they are creating it backed by the might of companies like Microsoft and alphabet these Tech Giants commitment to fueling AI advancements through substantial Investments and strategic initiatives reflect their confidence in ai's long-term potential currently Nvidia stands as a market leader showing consistent upward growth in its stock value the future projections are promising with analysts forecasting further gains driven by continuous advancements in AI technology broadcom and Micron also present attractive prospects given their critical role in the semiconductor space which is indispensable to AI development these companies are well positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for AI applications across Industries so where does this leave potential investors simple it's time to ride the AI wave the Dynamics of the stock market may be complex but one thing is clear AI is reshaping Industries economies and societies at large don't be left behind are you ready to invest in the future let us know your thoughts and join the conversation the stock market is not just about numbers it's about the story of our technological future and you have a chance to be part of it
Comments 0