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structurally the trade war with with China is a is a huge loss for Humanity there's no other word for it by by bifurcating the technology stack between our two great Nations we are creating a world where one the Chinese have a huge incentive to engage in their Manhattan Project of semiconductor production and the Chinese graduate about four times as many stem graduates as the US does a year I think we're pretty naive to believe that we will have a permanent dominance given the strength of their engineering capabilities and then if you march forward three years five years seven years as the Chinese tighten the gap between the U.S and the West capability and technology and their capability I think you have the risk of a global fracturing of the tech stack where you'll see the Wintel stack Windows Intel of course Intel today is Intel AMD will be the dominant solution for Western firms but the Chinese will provide the solution used by South America used by Africa potentially used by India and that will really fracture Western domination in technology which has been such an incredible source of high paid jobs in America and American Prosperity I mean for the State of California the tech sector it's just a huge part of the Revenue tax base wouldn't you agree though that the Biden Administration is in a tough position on the one hand there's intelligence or at least informed speculation that China is using Advanced American semiconductor technology in Next Generation weapon systems there's also bipartisan support for a tough stance on uh access to American Technology by the Chinese government and Chinese companies these things if if the former is true and we know the latter is the case shouldn't it warrant at the very least some concern if not action by Washington so first of all there has been action that's important the chips bill is a really important piece of legislation the United States has no ability to produce anywhere near the number of semiconductors it needs to run its economy we are utterly and totally dependent upon the Taiwanese for modern semiconductors in America now you could argue that by depriving the Chinese of access to semiconductors we actually up the ante of the risk that they seize Taiwan so it's not necessarily clear that we get the outcome that we want by depriving the Chinese of this technology they could resort to other methods to secure this this needed technology for their economy if they so choose we're playing with fire here like let's be very clear semiconductors if we lose access to the Chinese or the Taiwanese semiconductors hit the usgdps probably order magnitude five to ten percent it's an immediate Great Depression those are big numbers those are big numbers so the chips act really important encouraging stem degrees in America really important but what worries me is this sense in the halls of Washington that the West has a god-given right to be superior in its technological progress when the facts would argue to the contrary and we need to be very thoughtful about how our economy functions what creates jobs in America what creates prosperity for our country and by forcing the Chinese to accelerate their r d programs I think we're buying very little in the way of strategic Advantage at a substantial long-term cost to our economy and our way of life what I want to know from you Ken is what do you make of the spectacular collapse of Sam bankman Freed's FTX look FTX is is one of these absolute travesties in the history of financial markets I mean people will lose billions of dollars collectively people are going to lose billions of dollars and that undermines trust in all financial markets what we do know is the balance sheet shows a giant black hole and there's no doubt that customer assets for are used to make investment decisions in favor of ftx's shareholders which didn't work at the expense of the customers that's not permitted in American brokered yours you can't just use your customer assets to go engage in proprietary trading that's a that's a huge no no so FTX you know billions of dollars have been lost here the confidence though of a generation in financial markets has also been shaken that's really awful because the the 20 some year olds to 40 year olds who are so engaged in crypto they've got to save for their retirement and if they don't believe or trust in financial markets this is a huge problem they need to own stocks they need to own corporate debt they need to partake in our Global Capital markets now with with FTX there are there are a few points here that we should talk about the turf war by American Regulators has got to end it's just Preposterous that without naming the agencies they all dance around who owns what and who and the bottom line is American investors have really gotten hurt here to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars in decline in market cap and crypto over the last two years I mean that that really strikes at the entire core or Essence of what's investor protection all about the second is that FTX crosses a into a into a zone that all of us are worried about you know on the balance sheet of FTX is a line called Trump lose and Sam was the second biggest donor to democratic candidates I'm going to leave it to everybody else to draw their own conclusions about what you're saying here right those are those are really really ugly facts when you see a fraud of this magnitude having played out and you find no Regulators were there to prevent it that's a really really tough story what is your Intel and what is your gut telling you about the state of the world right now that's a great question so the state of the world right now there's been two big debates are we heading to recession and what's the trajectory of inflation and of course the two are intertwined I think we've been a little bit out of consensus we have felt that we would not have a recession this year in 2022 and in North America that's borne out to be true we are we're highly confident we're going to finish this year on a modest growth note now the issue of course is 2023 when the leg effects of the FED having increased rates will really start to grind on the economy my team for Choice things 2023 we avoid a recession I'm a little more skeptical about that I think that for the FED to to truly conquer inflation here we're going to put unemployment somewhere where the mid forehandle and I find it hard to believe we're not going to have a recession at that point in time sometime in the middle to back half of 2023.
on inflation we think we've seen Peak inflation now owners equivalent rent which is a Big Driver inflation because of the way it's calculated and estimated we'll see that continue to show inflationary pressure for the next few months but Spot rental rates appear to have Peak to many metropolitan areas a few weeks ago and then Energy prices are likely to roll over in 2023 as compared to their 12 month prior so two of your really big drivers of inflation energy rent we think we've seen a peak in and then across Goods we think this is going to be a really good holiday season for consumers because American companies have built up such a substantial inventory of goods that they're going to need to sell here heading into the holidays so we think we're going to see pretty good pricing for consumers as Goods become very attractively priced to move them out of warehouses what would you flag as the biggest risks right now in in terms of risk that that we think about a lot in our portfolio right here right now you know obviously the war in the Ukraine is is front and center because the war in Ukraine is driving an energy crisis in Europe that is that is almost incomprehensible we're going to see and this winter fortunately we're going to see just limited rashing of energy but if this war doesn't resolve by next summer by this spring next winter could be a much more difficult Journey for Europe to get through in terms of gas supplies so I think the the duration of the war in Ukraine is a is a existential issue for Europe for Germany in particular and will the Germans maintain their willingness to support the ukrainians as the cost to their economy continues to grow and in particular if winter 23-24 could involve a full-on energy crisis what happens to the German psyche in supporting their neighbor in Europe so that's a that's a really big issue right here right now click this video to watch Frank eustro reveal why we are headed towards a great monetary reset and how to secure your wealth during these times
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