저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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Ray Dalio는 결론적으로 현재 미국의 과잉 부채와 통화 팽창으로 인해 장기적으로 법정화폐의 구매력이 떨어지므로, 실물 자산과 분산투자로 자산을 지켜야 한다고 주장한다. 거시 환경: 연준과 정부가 막대한 부채와 신용을 공급해 거품을 만들었고, 이제 긴축으로 방향을 틀고 있다. 인플레이션을 잡으려면 소비를 줄여야 하며 이는 경기침체를 동반한다. 구조적 위험 3가지: 부채·통화 창출 규모, 좌우 포퓰리즘에 따른 내부 갈등과 극심한 부의 격차, 국제 갈등(우크라이나 전쟁 비용이 나토 기준 약 8조 달러로 추정). 여기에 자연재해도 문명을 무너뜨린 큰 요인이라고 언급한다. 미국의 상대적 쇠퇴: 세계 GDP 비중, 수출, 기축통화 지위, 교육 등 18개 지표에서 상대적으로 하락 중이라고 진단한다. 통화 평가: 달러를 포함한 주요 통화(유로, 엔)가 모두 구매력이 떨어지는 나쁜 통화이며, 이자율이 물가상승률보다 낮으면 현금은 좋은 가치저장 수단이 아니다. 자산 전략: 소득이 지출보다 많고 대차대조표가 튼튼하며 내부 갈등과 국제 전쟁 위험이 낮은 국가를 찾고, 주택·교육·의료 등 필요한 것을 미리 확보하며, 손실 한도를 정해 분산투자로 위험을 줄이라고 권한다. 리스크 관리 측면에서 50% 손실은 100% 회복이 필요하다는 점을 강조한다. 중국 전망: 인구 고령화(한 자녀 정책으로 인한 부양 부담), 부동산 부채 위기, 기업 규제 등 문제가 크지만 장기적으로는 낙관하며 일부 비중은 중국에 두는 것이 필요하다고 본다. 구체적 가격 전망이나 종목 추천은 없다.
다듬은 글
the fed and the government together gave an enormous amount of debt and credit and created a Lurch forward okay and now they're putting on the brakes Ray dalio is a billionaire investor and founder of Bridgewater Associates one of the world's largest hedge funds with over 140 billion dollars in assets Ray dalio has uniquely studied over 500 years of History to learn and predict future economic Cycles in this video Ray Dalia reveals the best assets to acquire to protect your savings and where to find them during times of high inflation in my years of doing this so something like over a little over 50 years what I found is that many times in my life things that surprised me were because of they never happened in my lifetime before but they happened many times in history and so there were three big things there are three big things that are happening to us that haven't happened in our lifetime and those three big things are first the amount of debt and money creation how much debt we have the rate at which we are creating it and then where are we getting that money from the Federal Reserve and other central banks printing so that has never happened to this degree except for the 1930 to 45 period which I studied before the second of those two things is the amount of internal conflict populism of the left and the right irreconcilable differences with the largest wealth gaps that have existed and the third was International conflict um so in my whole lifetime the United States was clearly a dominant power and we were in the American world order those are the three big things I also studied saw in history that there were two other things that were very important one was Acts of nature actually toppled more civilizations killed more people than the others that I just mentioned there are 18 measures of health and their measures of things like what is your percentage of world GDP what is your percentage of exports how you reserve currency but also what is your education level level of Education what is your competitiveness 18 measures of that we are in Decline we're declining on a relative basis but even also some measures in an absolute basis and so if you use measures of comparability in military technology share of world GDP all of that uh you see that that's that is the only real power there are military Powers but history has shown if you're a military power and you're not an economic power well you may be a threat you're not going to win the war it's all a matter of Basics can't do you earn more than you spent okay do you have a good income statement and do you have a good balance sheet do you have one or two parents who care for you and give you the guidance and the values can I go to a good public school and have food and health care and come out with an environment of equal opportunity that's all you need that's all you need because if you do those things you will have a civil population that will be productive and that you will be financially capable strong so you're going to do things better and better and you'll be strong the way the system works is if you give a lot of money and credit and you make it cheap enough they will spend it okay but when you create debt um it's stimulative over the short run and depressing over the long run so what do you do with that debt okay if you make it tough to pay it back then what happens is you have a an economic downturn if you make it easy you print the money and those are that's the cycle so when we look at what the FED has done the Fed dead and the government together gave an enormous amount of debt and credit and created a Lurch forward a giant Lurch forward and created a bubble okay and now they're putting on the brakes you can't get rid of inflation the way you get rid of inflation is to get people to spend less and that is what an economic downturn so the cycle goes like that and then when you get to the point where let's say the economic pain is greater than the inflation pay and you see them do the opposite so we're going through that particular cycle so it's I think a delusion to believe that okay what they're going to do is deal with inflation and it'll all go away because they'll deal with inflation by doing that without realizing what that means in terms of that the that what the means of buying power so there's that trade-off and I think we're going to be in an environment in which they're trying to navigate these two difficult you don't want too much inflation and you don't want to weaken economy and that's all happening in the context of the political conflict which is very important and the international conflict because the international conflict has bearing on things like inflations supply lines and all of that the key of course is to try to get the balance as as best as we can I I mean I call it a beautiful deleverage you need a beautiful deleveraging traditionally those three things are the perfect storm right they all affect each other so if you have a bad economic situation as you said it affects one group of people and it hurts them then you have an internal political conflict right the left and the right the rich and the poor and so on and then that affects things and vice versa and then of course the external conflict the cost of the external conflict like for example it's estimated that so far the cost of to the Ukraine war of the Ukraine war to Nato is something like eight trillion dollars so what happens is the government says what do we need to spend money on and they then go spend the money and we don't have that balance so that issue is a big fundamental issue particularly when we have populism of both sides you shouldn't look at the value of the dollar in relationship to other currencies as much I mean they're all bad currencies so we can get into why Europe is a bad currency and why the yen is a bad currency they're all bad currencies and they are all depreciating in buying power and so the question is what is a storehold of wealth you know money is a medium of exchange or a storehold of wealth and it's not a good storehold of wealth when the interest rate you're receiving is much less than the inflation rate so that's what you're seeing happen we will over the next 10 years certainly I think be trying to find the answer of what is the storehold of wealth because usually it's it's a money and then a debt instrument in holding that money but as that goes down then there is the question of what it is what is that currency store hold of wealth so we're in that place if I was saving what would I want to save it I'd like to save in the things I know that I'm going to need so I would like to save in like my residence my house I would like to save if I could pay forward my kids education pay forward the food or the health care that I can I would want to save in those things to buy forward the things I need most fundamentally and then also I think that you have to think geographically where is best in the world say that best in the world are countries in which they're earning more than their spending and their balance sheets are have more assets and liabilities on them that they're civil with each other and then they're not in conflict and they're they're not in risk of an international War it's basically those fundamentals and I think then what you have to do is also diversify it's all return in relation to risk everybody looks at how much return you make but it only takes one time to knock you out you know what Richard has been doing this 47 years and we survived you have to survive first it only takes one time to knock you out of the game and so you should never lose more than x amount of money that you can't recover because you lose 50 percent takes a hundred percent to get back diversification knowing how to do that well allows you to reduce your risk by up to eighty percent without reducing your return I want to be clear that from my getting to know the leaders and I don't know she but I know those around them that they are reasonable people and you're going to in my opinion you're going to bring um reasonable people into that there's a culture there's that but there's a lot of uncertainty and a lot of problems the first is they have a debt crisis in my opinion they've allowed to go too far into the bones of the economy so it's affecting local governments it's affecting financial institutions it starts with real estate real estate is 25 of their economy approximately and then the majority of savings so it has a wealth effect it has a negative and it's passing through the system so that's one um second um is that there's this question of are they still in favor of free enterprise and the market system and what is common prosperity mean and so on quite a lot of confusion regarding that from my operating there they uh they don't want to mess with that system very much she doesn't number three covet okay number four is demographics okay demographics is particularly important in China because of the culture in China as well as the one child policy the family takes care of the family and so the tradition is that the children take care of the adults at in old age they don't have a well-developed pension system and so what happens is with the one child policy a husband and wife has four parents that they have to take care of system can't deal with that and so that's a main thing so you have a number of these problems you have climate problem and a water problem in China so China's got a lot of those problems to deal with but the real question and we we all can have problems the real question is where is that Beacon is that Beacon and we're going to learn more about that based on who's appointed to what jobs and also what statements are bad is that Beacon continuing to do the things that raise productivity and inventiveness and so on so we're going to learn more but I think that as far as investing in China China is the if you take certain industries it's it's you know main competitor but it's neither should know in my opinion uh not you have to have a look you have to have a certain amount in China I think the longer term picture in China is still bright because I know the people and I know the culture and I think it's good but they have major issues now click here to watch Brent Johnson reveal why the FED is willing to crush other currencies when it will pivot and what the future of the global monetary system looks like
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