저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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Cathie Wood는 2023년 경제가 파괴적 침체로 갈 수 있다고 보며, 통화량 감소를 근거로 디플레이션 가능성을 강조한다. 통화 정책: M2 통화량 증가율이 11월 기준 전년 대비 0%로 떨어졌고, 앞으로 3~6개월간 마이너스 성장이 이어지거나 더 악화될 것으로 본다. 과거 25년·50년 평균 M2 증가율은 약 7%였다. 금리 전망: 연준 기준금리는 12월 4.5%였고 2월 1일 25~50bp 인상 후 4.75~5% 수준이 될 것이며, 연준 위원 다수도 약 5%를 말하고 있다고 언급했다. 이후 인상은 끝날 것으로 본다. 인플레이션: 1970년대식 인플레이션과 현재는 다르며, 공급 충격(코로나, 러시아의 우크라이나 침공)에서 비롯된 이번 인플레이션은 1921년처럼 급락할 것으로 본다. 2023년 중 2% 아래로 내려갈 것이라 예상한다. 채권시장: 10년 기대 인플레이션(브레이크이븐) 2%를 채권시장이 이미 반영하고 있으며, 장기금리가 단기금리 대비 하락해 장단기 금리차가 역전되는 흐름이 강화될 것으로 본다. 현재 약 70bp 수준이다. 주식시장은 아직 연준 긴축을 따르는 모습이라고 평가했다. 에너지: 에너지 섹터가 사상 최고치에 접근 중이지만, 유가는 2008년에 정점을 찍었고 구조적 하락세라고 본다. 혁신주: AI(ChatGPT, Lensa AI, DALL·E 2 등)가 지식 혁명을 일으킬 것이며, 향후 5~10년이 매우 큰 성장기라고 강조한다. 현재 혁신주가 1990년대 말 가치주가 받던 대우를 받고 있다고 보며, 혁신이 시장에서 승리할 것이라 믿는다. 리스크: 자산 가격 조정과 경기 침체 가능성을 경고하며, 금융 긴축 기조가 이어질 경우의 위험을 지적한다.
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um this is a very unusual uh period uh in fact in my career I've never seen it go negative and I've been in the business for um nearly 45 years so uh this is Uncharted Territory and in fact the last time we saw meaningful declines in the money supply was in the Great Depression and then we went off the gold exchange standard and lost all discipline that's nothing like what we've been through we have been through a massive Supply shock two of them covid related and then the Russia invasion of Ukraine very Innovation today is being treated like value was in the late 90s and we know how that ended maybe the FED will start talking a little bit more about uh some of the very significant declines in inflation and and outright prices in this video Kathy Wood expresses her major concerns for the 2023 economy would highlights the incredibly unusual scenario the market is facing that has not been seen before since the Great Depression that is scaring Big Time investors make sure you stay until the end because wood reveals what the future of AI will look like and how to profit off this massive investment opportunity now sit back relax and let's see what Kathy has to say let's talk about monetary policy so M2 is now down to zero growth on a year-over-year basis and that's as of November it does look like November went negative and we believe the negative growth rate will will continue if not accelerate to the downside during the next three to six months this is a very unusual period uh in fact in my career I've never seen it it go negative and I've been in the business for nearly 45 years so uh this is Uncharted Territory and in fact the last time we saw meaningful declines in the money supply um was in the Great Depression which was of course a very deflationary period so it's very interesting to hear the Larry Summers of the world hearkening back to the 70s in terms of expectations for inflation he's ignoring a lot of real-time indicators a lot of market indicators and will spend a lot of time on that uh in a minute now the the when I say Uncharted Territory if you look at the average money supply growth for the last 25 years and the last 50 years a very long time the average money growth has been seven percent event at a compound annual rate so you know zero negative is a huge departure and we believe highly deflationary and we're beginning to see that as uh as I will um illustrate as we get into the market indicators the FED fund rate went to four and a half percent in uh December and it does appear that the FED is determined to take it up again they want nothing to do with a legacy associated with inflation and as we've suspected for some time they are unanimous because there are people like uh Larry Summers out of out there saying you're going to be responsible for another run at 70 style inflation which was highly destructive and many times I've mentioned here that the 70 use inflation is nothing like the inflation we just experienced the 70s inflation started in the mid 60s with the Vietnam war with the Great Society programs uh one after another after another and then we went off the gold exchange standard and lost all discipline that's nothing like what we've been through we have been through a massive Supply shock two of them covid related and then the Russia invasion of Ukraine very different circumstance one led to Lasting inflation and this one we believe as I've mentioned many times before will be much like what we saw in the early 1920s after a pandemic and World War One inflation collapsed it actually ended up at negative 15 percent in June of 1921 and we do believe this year we're going to drop below two percent uh and in fact the bond market believes it the Bond markets break-even rate is two percent for the next 10 years in other words the bond market is expecting two percent inflation for 10 years uh and this is the fed's goal the bond market thinks we are already there and uh in fact we believe the bond market will continue to Rally meaning long-term interest rates coming down relative to short-term interest rates uh inverting the yield curve uh right now we're at 70 basis points a little more than that and it is interesting now to watch the bond market uh disengage somewhat from the fed's rhetoric uh and uh the the stock market has not done that yet in fact the the stock market is behaving like the FED is right uh the the energy sector is reaching for all-time highs uh even though oil prices peaked in 2 2008 and we believe are in secular decline the on February 1st we'll probably see another 25 or 50 basis points so we will be at 4.75 or 5 now most of the FED Governors are saying roughly five percent maybe a little bit more and then we're done um maybe the FED will start talking a little bit more about uh some of the very significant declines in inflation and and outright prices that we have begun to see artificial intelligence the breakthroughs here are absolutely mind-blowing check out chatgpt this is a derivative I believe of gpt3 and open AI service and what you can do is prompt chat PPT to write an essay on the history of space exploration and boom less than a minute it's there and it's pretty well written too and I'm a stickler on writing um now many people are horrified at this thought and what it means for education but we're not because the reason it's able to do this is it scours the internet from the beginning of Internet time and uh and writes the essay well guess what yes the internet includes a lot of facts and figures but it also includes misinformation as well as creative writing and scientific science fiction so the history of space exploration is going to have all kinds of uh mistakes associated with the misinformation or creativity and so is going to change education there will be a lot more fact checking if a student decides to have chat GPT write an essay but uh we already know that chat GPT is scoring better than the national average on the SATs and is going to get better with time because uh these machine programs learn with time there's another another app that's out there called lensa AI put out by a stable diffusion and within I think it was in five days it got a million users this is this app creates many profile pictures for anyone uh just based on searching uh your uh your Facebook and other social presence so Brett Winton our director of research did it and I must say that the photos look terrific uh um and so he's now you using one for his profile picture we also have dolly two Dolly 2 is again with a prompt you can say I'd like to draw I'd like to see pictures of myself in all kinds of sports Universe forms and boom boom boom boom boom populated very very quickly and by our estimates some of its output today and it's going to get better would probably cost 150 to 300 dollars and take four hours or more for a an artist to draw and this Tech you know just a few minutes so you know these are already what we believe is going to happen is that artificial intelligence is the equivalent of the assembly line for uh for the Industrial Revolution but this is the knowledge Revolution and uh try these out yourself you'll see how powerful they are and we're hearing programmers say that you know they they uh you have to know how to program if you're going to do this but it saves them 50 of their time um so it's really astonishing what's uh what's going on some of the others lots of innovation has already taken place uh we are not just ready for prime time we have entered prime time the next five to ten years are going to be magnificent uh and we believe that truth will win in win out in the stock market uh as far as we're concerned Innovation today is being treated like value was in the late 90s and uh we know how that ended we believe that Innovation will win uh and our research uh buttresses that conclusion I highly recommend that you check out where Kathy Wood reflects what went wrong in 2022 and makes her bold predictions for 2023 you don't want to miss it
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