저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 시장은 바닥에 가까워졌고 향후 6~9개월간 빅테크 이후 성장주에 비대칭적 상승 기회가 있다는 낙관적 전망. [시장 국면] 빅테크의 무제한 성장 시대가 끝나고 현금창출 기업 중심 국면으로 전환 중. 성장 둔화를 인정하며 Apple·Facebook·Google·Microsoft가 가장 민감한 밸류에이션 구간에 거래될 것이라 봄. [바닥 판단] 현재 지수는 저점에서 3~5% 위, 고점보다 저점에 더 가깝다고 판단. 과거 과열 비합리성이 빠지며 시장이 안정화되는 과정이라고 설명. [연준 개입] 연준 풋(Fed put)이 재차 작동해 시장을 지지할 것이며, 영국 파운드 붕괴 후 BoE 선회 사례처럼 미국에서도 유사 상황이 6~9개월 내 펼쳐질 것이라 주장. [투자 방향] 2008~2010, 2000~2004 같은 시기 투자가 장기 최고 수익을 냈다고 언급. 2022년 처음 투자되고 2023~24년 주도주가 될 기업들을 찾아 올라타야 한다고 조언. 언급 기업: Atlassian, Tesla, Uber, Google, Airbnb, Instagram, WhatsApp(모두 과거 사례). 본인이 지금 종목 베팅을 조금씩 시작한다고 밝힘. [리스크] 연준이 개입하기 전까지 추가 하락 가능성(본 발언은 Ken McElroy의 하락 전망과 대비되는 입장). 연준 개입이 늦어질 경우 '4.5%까지 빠르게 갈 수 있다'는 발언 맥락도 존재. [출연자 전망] 상승 쪽 낙관. 금리·달러(DXY) 관련해서는 Brent Johnson 다음 영상 예고 중 언급.
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the Investments that one makes in this period will probably be the best for many many years to come because they'll have the most asymmetric upside the end of this phase of big Tech so I'm constructive I'm a little bullish I'll go I'll go out on a limb I think you know we could be three to five percent from the lows but we're more near the lows than the highs this is why I think we're in a bottoming process ours will play out over six or nine months but it's going to play out the exact same way mark my words the Federal Reserve will intervene billionaire venture capitalist early senior executive at Facebook and investor in Bitcoin since 2012 has a proven track record of seeing Tech Trends early and knowing when to get into the next big thing after correctly predicting the top of the market in Q4 2021 he now says he believes the market is nearing its bottom in this essential investing highlight chimeth puts forward his argument that the serving investor should be paying attention to right now to capitalize on the next big wave of technology companies that will change our world and make their shareholders millionaires while he doesn't think the bottom is in just yet he does suggest we are nearer the bottom than the top and he reveals that he is starting to play some of his bets for the next leg up well it definitely is the end of an era I think it is sort of like the the end of this phase of big Tech where you had this you know unfettered growth where these business models were largely unassailable and they you know were really just fighting to grow into their valuation and just generate more Revenue to justify where they um where they traded at and now it's this next phase where they have to operate more like a cash cow business and so you know it's an acknowledgment that the growth is tapering it's an acknowledgment that they're going to trade on a pretty tight band in terms of multiple these companies Apple Facebook Google maybe a little bit Microsoft are the most sensitive to valuation because they are the most widely held right these are the these are the you know the equivalent of U.S treasuries in the equity markets the safest most predictable Safe Haven in times of stress if you want to own big chunky cash flow generating businesses that you know are relatively unassailable you couldn't pick four better businesses than those and so the fact that they see enough in the Horizon to say that we need to batten down the hatches should be a warning to everybody else it's another data point that again I said it last week I'll go out on a limb and predict my equivalent November fall predictions last fall it was at the markets were going to Coop the bed my prediction now is that I think the markets are bothering me and Consolidated this is the time I think to start nibbling and start getting ready to really rip the money in and I think there's enough signals every day that kind of like tell me at least that on the margin it's time because I think the markets do a reasonably good job of digesting news and then pricing the forward reality right like today's price is really everything we already know and so the real guess is what's about to happen in the future and from my perspective I'm actually pretty starting to get a little constructive here I think that um when when companies like Facebook really do this and you know like if you think about it one way the financial markets have always had this thing that we have called the fed put what does that mean a put is essentially the right to sell something and what Market participants have always known for the last decade is that if things got very hairy if there was uncertainty in the market the Federal Reserve would and they have consistently stepped in to create a buyer of Last Resort and so it always eliminated that last part of true you know Supply demand balance because they would just come and say don't worry in many ways in Tech what the big tech companies were were that you know you could never really find what the true market clearing price for an engineer was or what the true amount of expenses you should spend on office space or you know free services because you always always have these companies which was in escalating arms race you know if one company had a massage the next company had gyms in massage and physical therapists and the other company would have buses to take you to the gyms in massage and therapists in the next company would have protein shakes that were freshly made you know and it just kept escalating and escalating because the costs didn't matter and they wanted if nothing else to get that marginal engineer or product manager or business person to work at their company which eliminated the risk that they would actually start something to disrupt them so when you take this big Tech put out of the market you will get true price Discovery and you will find out what the real price should be for this kind of an engineer that kind of a product manager you'll find out what are the real expenses you need to bear in order to build a real lasting business and you'll be able to sort through all of that stuff out so I think it's a really good moment and again it's yet another indication to me that I think broadly speaking the markets are now starting to stabilize all the irrational Behavior is starting to exit the system the party is in the last few hours volumes going down the alcohol is being taken away people are hanging around with a little bit lights are coming on they're like I've been here a little too long and I think that that's a very healthy process for an economy and I think that that's what's happening right now so I'm constructive I'm a little bullish I'll go I'll go out on a limb I think you know we could be three to five percent from the lows but we're more near the lows than the highs the Investments that one makes in this period will probably be the best for many many years to come because they'll have the most asymmetric upside and that was true in 2008 and 9 and 10.
it was true in you know 2000 and two three and four you I mean you're talking incredible companies just in those two periods think about this atlassian Tesla Uber Google Airbnb Uber Instagram WhatsApp incredible businesses that have created tremendous value and so there are businesses that have been invested in for the first time in 2022 and will be invested in for the first time in 2023 and 24 which will be the leading winners of this next phase and this next leg up and so the real opportunity is to find out who those companies are and get behind them so pretty Rosy Outlook from Palo habitia believing that most of the pain is behind us this is in stark contrast to the billion dollar investor we heard from in yesterday's video Ken McElroy who said we have much more downside to go let us know in the comments below who you think will be proved correct if not be sure to watch it next to guarantee you don't get confirmation bias by only watching the views you believe in this is how investors lose their shirts in the markets and if today's essential investing episode help keep you informed share the love by Smashing that like button because everyone knows that means seven years good luck investing And subscribe and hit the Bell so you get immediate notification of tomorrow's video where inventor of the dollar milkshake Theory Brent Johnson gives us an update on the stromdoer and what he expects next bring has looked like a genius this last year by predicting the rising dollar and explaining the significance of it in your portfolio in tomorrow's update he tells us where the all-important dxy is headed next in the final segment jamath shares his observations of the recent debacle in London where the bank of England completely reversed course after the British pound collapsed nearly 10 percent in mere weeks he then uses that as a guide to predict what and when something similar may happen in the U.S my words the Federal Reserve will intervene this is why I think we're in a bottoming process I think the the bleeding edge of the Smart Financial actors are actually on saxicide and friedberg's side but then they're taking that next intellectual leap and saying okay well what happens when Apple basically says hey guys I'm gonna have to fire 15 of my employees I think what happens is the fed intervenes and I'm just using apple as an example but there there is a threshold of demand destruction Jason I think you're right where we have the fed put come back on the table and the markets just go Bonkers no no no no no they're gonna they're gonna get to four and a half very quickly and then this Something's Gonna Break like all these guys are saying I think they're right and then the fed put comes back on the table you know the UK thing happened in what six days ours will play out over six or nine months but it's going to play out the exact same way thanks for watching today's essential investing I highly recommend checking out this video where famed investor Ken McElroy with over a billion dollars worth of real estate under management reveals the Grim truth about the collapsing real estate market his interest rate predictions and what you need to do to protect yourself and profit from it
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