저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 현재의 거품 장세 이후 마지막 대형 랠리가 한 번 더 나올 수 있으나, 그것이 강세장의 재개가 아니라 붕괴 직전의 마지막 숨고르기일 가능성이 크다. 시장 전망: 비관론이 극에 달했을 때 전쟁 종결 등 무언가가 계기가 되어 비관을 깨고 큰 랠리가 나올 수 있다. 과거 큰 랠리는 강세장 말기나 약세장 초입에 자주 나타났다. 2000년 나스닥처럼 마지막 랠리 직후 붕괴가 올 수 있다. 비관이 클 때는 반대편을 고려하라. 채권·부동산·주식: 채권은 거품 상태로 수십 년간 강세장이 오기 어렵다. 부동산도 문제가 생길 것이다. 많은 주식이 거품이다. 현재 싼 것은 실물자산뿐이다. 실물자산: 중앙은행이 다시 돈을 찍으면 인플레이션이 돌아오고 실물자산이 오른다. 설탕과 은은 고점 대비 70% 하락해 거품 수준이 아니다. 실물자산에 대해 공부하는 것이 자기 보호 수단이 될 수 있다. 단기 대응: 당분간 비관하지 말고 큰 상승에 참여할 여지는 남겨두되, 섣불리 방향을 바꾸지 말 것. 현재는 연준의 긴축으로 인한 디스인플레이션 국면이며 몇 개월~분기 지속될 수 있다. 정책이 완화로 전환되면 실물자산에 본격 투자할 시기다. 달러비용평균법으로 분할 매수를 고려할 수 있다. 스태그플레이션: 인플레이션은 높으나 경제성장이 없는 국면에서는 우즈베키스탄 같은 저평가 시장이 예시가 될 수 있다. 다만 핵심은 아는 것에만 투자하라는 것이다. 투자 태도: 성공하려면 지루해야 한다. 유행하는 종목에 뛰어들지 말고, 몇 가지 투자에만 집중하라.
다듬은 글
know bonds are certainly in a bubble the property is going to have problems many stocks have been a bubble the only thing that's still cheap or real I've started investing in Uzbekistan Jim Rogers is the founder of one of the largest hedge funds the quantum Fund in this highlight Rogers believes that the economy will have one more big rally before the everything bubble finally collapses make sure you stay until the end because Rogers reveals exactly why he's investing in Uzbekistan and he even provides a strategy to invest during these tumultuous Economic Times you know there's been a lot of pessimism around as you well know and in my experience when there's huge amounts of pessimism usually something happens to break the pessimism we said we've had it the last couple of weeks because people the Federal Reserve has talked about well maybe we're not so not going to be so tough or whatever it is all right this is not a projection but suppose there's peace in Ukraine or something right you know something often happens to break the pessimism we have a big wave of optimism and a gigantic rally gigantic rallies have often happened at the end of bull markets or the beginning of bear markets so we may well have another gigantic rally but that would probably be the last one if you ask me usually at the end of a long full Market when you have a gigantic rally at the end it's usually the end I mean if you can remember NASDAQ at the end of 1999 and 2000 I mean it skyrocketed somebody doubled in six months or something uh just as we were about to collapse this is the way markets work fortunately or unfortunately so I I just want to point out when you have a lot of pessimism start thinking about going to the other side for a while then but looking out on that trajectory here then um is there any particular Council that you would give to the regular investor the the viewer of this this video here um who's who would love to participate in some upside but really their priority is just not to get killed by the downside here um so they're probably less looking for a short-term type of trade and more just sort of like a you know is is there a a a a secular Trend that they can ride here um I don't want to seed your answer but I know that you're a big fan of hard assets but is there any particular counsel you'd give these folks well back to what I said before when the central banks panic and start printing money again inflation comes back and the you know bonds are certainly in a bubble they're not going to be in a bull market for decades property is going to have problems as we've discussed many stocks have been a bubble the only thing that's still cheap are real assets and if they print money when they print money it leads to some things going higher but those are usually silver wheat you know real assets the price of sugar is down 70 percent from its all-time high that's not a bubble the price of silver is down 70 percent from its all-time high those are not bubble kind of numbers so the only thing that is cheap that I know of I mean yes there's property some places yes blah blah but but the only thing as a class are real assets and they do go up when there's a lot of money Printing and so I if people know about real assets maybe they should do more research and homework and maybe that's a way to protect yourself that's a that's a great Point we've had a lot of people on this channel who are experienced investors like you saying hey some of the most violent um you know rallies upwards rallies have happened in Bear markets which is somewhat similar to the warning you're giving here we've also had people that have said we've had the longest secular bull market in history 40 years or so by some people's measurement and you would expect that to end with a blow-off Spike as opposed to a whimper um not saying you necessarily share that point of view but the scenario that you just laid out could in some ways validate what those people are saying too but what I hear you saying is is um there are reasons for why we we could have a bad rally what I hear you're saying is I wouldn't trust that as being a secular return to a bull market it's more like the last gasp it's the last rally before things really roll over well as I would repeat about the end of the 1999-2000 with that beginning of that bear Market it skyrocketed there at the end after a long secular bull market and then it would everybody thought happy days are here again this is going to go on forever an interesting sideline in 1999 I think that was exact year the Wall Street Journal The Long Street Journal I mean not some neighborhood newspapers started using with capital letters that words the expression the new economy capital n capital E this is the way they The Wall Street Journal referred to the world it was the new economy absolutely and capital E they don't do any more by the way you have to you know it didn't it took him a while but eventually they stopped capitalizing new economy but that's how things get in long-ball markets that's how Wild again and that last gasp as we were discussing before can be wildly exciting if you're on the right side all right so in the immediate term don't get too pessimistic reserve the right to you know participate in in a big surge here but don't don't flip to being a permeable because it could very well end um I have heard I've seen too many times when everybody was on the same side of the boat you better go to the other side of the boat when that happens got it okay all right and um you know right now right now don't say I'm not saying how long we're going to be in it but right now it seems like we're in a period of dis we're back into a period of dis inflation right where we're coming down from the highs that the CPI has been at Jerome Powell and his team are doing everything they can to kill demand um that likely will probably go on for a few more months or quarters um unless and until you know there's something that forces a Fed pivot in the interim there so my guess is you would say you know start doing your homework during this period um and maybe starting a little dollar cost averaging but but once there is a policy shift and it's back to easing again hiking again or sorry uh cutting rates again then that's the time to really go into those assets that you just mentioned because we'll be back on the inflation train well but the stock some stocks will go up too I mean you know the Hot Shots the Hot Shot stocks will go up again for a while yes everybody will rush in and say hooray Happy Days Are Here Again you know Amazon will go through the roof for a while you know 10 cent will go through the roof for a while but in the end usually for a while you have a bull market in real assets and for those who know what they're doing be prepared and Jim how about uh so that's sort of the the inflation Market rule book does it differ at all in stagflation so you know let's say we have that Sugar High surge that you're talking about but we get to a point where inflation really picks back up but the the economic growth hasn't and we're just sort of mired in this period where inflation's high but the economy is not doing too much um is there anything that that fits well for that Playbook well I I I've started investing in Uzbekistan recently but most people watching this show couldn't find Uzbekistan on a map it was one of the Soviet republics it was a disaster it was ruined by the Communists and even after the Communists and so it's very cheap but now the people running the place run the way run the country the way you and I would and it's cheap and not many stocks so that might be an example but my main answer to that question which is Uzbekistan feeds into is only invest in what you know about if you want to be successful stay with what you know everybody watching this show knows a lot about something whether it's fashion or cars or sports or something stay with what you know if you want to be successful if I told you you can have 25 investments in your life you wouldn't jump in and out of every Hot Shot you hear on a program or somewhere or in the newspaper and you would be a successful investor but many people were saying but that's boring be boring if you want to be a successful investor be boring don't go down to the bar on Saturday night yelling about how much Amazon you own or whatever it is be boring go to the bar on Saturday night and let them all say oh my God there's that guy again talking about his boring boring stocks be boring if you want to be successful if you enjoyed that video click here to watch Chris Martinson discuss the mega Doom Loop that egregious government spending has put us in
Comments 0