저자: KenGriffin · 외국인
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결론: 미중 기술 디커플링과 대만 리스크가 장기적으로 서방 기술 우위와 경제에 큰 손실을 줄 것이며, 단기적으로는 2023년 경기침체 가능성과 인플레이션 정점 통과를 본다. 미중 무역전쟁과 기술 분리: 기술 스택의 분리(bifurcation)는 인류 전체에 큰 손실이며, 중국은 반도체 자급을 위해 대규모 투자를 할 유인이 크다. 중국은 STEM 졸업생이 미국의 약 4배로 엔지니어링 역량이 높아 서방 우위를 영구적으로 유지하기 어렵다고 본다. 3~7년 내 기술 격차가 좁혀지면 글로벌 기술 스택이 분열(Wintel 대 중국 생태계)할 위험이 있으며, 중국산 솔루션이 남미·아프리카·인도 등에서 쓰일 수 있다. 대만·반도체 리스크: 미국은 최신 반도체를 대만에 전적으로 의존하고 있다. 대만 공급이 끊기면 미국 GDP가 5~10% 감소하는 대공황급 충격이 있다고 본다. 중국의 반도체 접근을 막는 것이 오히려 대만 침공 위험을 높일 수 있어 결과가 불명확하다. 칩스법과 STEM 교육 확대는 중요하다고 평가한다. 반도체 규제 및 중국 기술 접근: 중국이 미국 첨단 반도체 기술을 차세대 무기 체계에 쓰고 있다는 정황이 있고, 초당적으로 강경 대응 지지가 있으나, 규제가 중국 기술 개발을 가속시켜 장기적 경제 비용만 크다고 우려한다. FTX 사태: 수십억 달러 손실과 금융시장 신뢰 훼손이 큰 사건이며, 고객 자산을 자기매매에 쓴 것은 미국 중개업에서 허용되지 않는 행위다. 규제기관 간 관할 다툼이 끝나야 하며, 젊은 세대의 주식·회사채 시장 불신은 장기적으로 큰 문제라고 본다. 경기 전망: 2022년 北美 경기침체는 없을 것으로 봤고 2022년은 완만한 성장으로 마무리될 것으로 확신한다. 2023년에는 Fed 금리 인상의 시차 효과로 경기침체 가능성을 더 회의적으로 본다. Fed가 인플레이션을 잡으려면 실업률을 중반~후반 수준으로 올려야 하며, 2023년 중·후반 경기침체 가능성이 높다고 본다. 인플레이션: 인플레이션 정점은 지나간 것으로 판단한다. OER(임대 등가 주거비)은 몇 달간 압력이 지속되나, 대도시 임대료 상승세는 몇 주 전 정점을 찍은 것으로 보인다. 에너지 가격은 2023년 전년 대비 하락할 가능성이 크다. 재고 과잉으로 연말 소비자에게 좋은 할인 가격이 예상된다. 주요 리스크: 우크라이나 전쟁이 가장 큰 위험이며 유럽 에너지 위기를 초래한다. 2023~24년 겨울 전면적 에너지 위기 시 독일의 우크라이나 지원 의지가 약화될 수 있다. 출연자 전망 요약: 2023년 경기침체 가능성 높음(중후반), 인플레이션 정점 통과, 에너지·임대료 하락, 대만 리스크 주시.
다듬은 글
structurally the trade war with with China is a is a huge loss for Humanity there's no other word for it by by bifurcating the technology stack between our two great Nations we are creating a world where one the Chinese have a huge incentive to engage in their Manhattan Project of semiconductor production and the Chinese graduate about four times as many stem graduates as the US does a year I think we're pretty naive to believe that we will have a permanent dominance given the strength of their engineering capabilities and then if you march forward three years five years seven years as the Chinese tighten the gap between the U.S and the West capability and technology and their capability I think you have the risk of a global fracturing of the tech stack where you'll see the Wintel stack Windows Intel of course Intel today is Intel AMD will be the dominant solution for Western firms but the Chinese will provide the solution used by South America used by Africa potentially used by India and that will really fracture Western domination in technology which has been such an incredible source of high paid jobs in America and American Prosperity I mean for the State of California the tech sector it's just a huge part of the Revenue tax base wouldn't you agree though that the Biden Administration is in a tough position on the one hand there's intelligence or at least informed speculation that China is using Advanced American semiconductor technology in Next Generation weapon systems there's also bipartisan support for a tough stance on uh access to American Technology by the Chinese government and Chinese companies these things if if the former is true and we know the latter is the case shouldn't it warrant at the very least some concern if not action by Washington so first of all there has been action that's important the chips bill is a really important piece of legislation the United States has no ability to produce anywhere near the number of semiconductors it needs to run its economy we are utterly and totally dependent upon the Taiwanese for modern semiconductors in America now you could argue that by depriving the Chinese of access to semiconductors we actually up the ante of the risk that they seize Taiwan so it's not necessarily clear that we get the outcome that we want by depriving the Chinese of this technology they could resort to other methods to secure this this needed technology for their economy if they so choose we're playing with fire here like let's be very clear semiconductors if we lose access to the Chinese or the Taiwanese semiconductors hit the usgdps probably order magnitude five to ten percent it's an immediate Great Depression those are big numbers those are big numbers so the chips act really important encouraging stem degrees in America really important but what worries me is this sense in the halls of Washington that the West has a god-given right to be superior in its technological progress when the facts would argue to the contrary and we need to be very thoughtful about how our economy functions what creates jobs in America what creates prosperity for our country and by forcing the Chinese to accelerate their r d programs I think we're buying very little in the way of strategic Advantage at a substantial long-term cost to our economy and our way of life what I want to know from you Ken is what do you make of the spectacular collapse of Sam bankman Freed's FTX look FTX is is one of these absolute travesties in the history of financial markets I mean people will lose billions of dollars collectively people are going to lose billions of dollars and that undermines trust in all financial markets what we do know is the balance sheet shows a giant black hole and there's no doubt that customer assets for are used to make investment decisions in favor of ftx's shareholders which didn't work at the expense of the customers that's not permitted in American brokered yours you can't just use your customer assets to go engage in proprietary trading that's a that's a huge no no so FTX you know billions of dollars have been lost here the confidence though of a generation in financial markets has also been shaken that's really awful because the the 20 some year olds to 40 year olds who are so engaged in crypto they've got to save for their retirement and if they don't believe or trust in financial markets this is a huge problem they need to own stocks they need to own corporate debt they need to partake in our Global Capital markets now with with FTX there are there are a few points here that we should talk about the turf war by American Regulators has got to end it's just Preposterous that without naming the agencies they all dance around who owns what and who and the bottom line is American investors have really gotten hurt here to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars in decline in market cap and crypto over the last two years I mean that that really strikes at the entire core or Essence of what's investor protection all about the second is that FTX crosses a into a into a zone that all of us are worried about you know on the balance sheet of FTX is a line called Trump lose and Sam was the second biggest donor to democratic candidates I'm going to leave it to everybody else to draw their own conclusions about what you're saying here right those are those are really really ugly facts when you see a fraud of this magnitude having played out and you find no Regulators were there to prevent it that's a really really tough story what is your Intel and what is your gut telling you about the state of the world right now that's a great question so the state of the world right now there's been two big debates are we heading to recession and what's the trajectory of inflation and of course the two are intertwined I think we've been a little bit out of consensus we have felt that we would not have a recession this year in 2022 and in North America that's borne out to be true we are we're highly confident we're going to finish this year on a modest growth note now the issue of course is 2023 when the leg effects of the FED having increased rates will really start to grind on the economy my team for Choice things 2023 we avoid a recession I'm a little more skeptical about that I think that for the FED to to truly conquer inflation here we're going to put unemployment somewhere where the mid forehandle and I find it hard to believe we're not going to have a recession at that point in time sometime in the middle to back half of 2023.
on inflation we think we've seen Peak inflation now owners equivalent rent which is a Big Driver inflation because of the way it's calculated and estimated we'll see that continue to show inflationary pressure for the next few months but Spot rental rates appear to have Peak to many metropolitan areas a few weeks ago and then Energy prices are likely to roll over in 2023 as compared to their 12 month prior so two of your really big drivers of inflation energy rent we think we've seen a peak in and then across Goods we think this is going to be a really good holiday season for consumers because American companies have built up such a substantial inventory of goods that they're going to need to sell here heading into the holidays so we think we're going to see pretty good pricing for consumers as Goods become very attractively priced to move them out of warehouses what would you flag as the biggest risks right now in in terms of risk that that we think about a lot in our portfolio right here right now you know obviously the war in the Ukraine is is front and center because the war in Ukraine is driving an energy crisis in Europe that is that is almost incomprehensible we're going to see and this winter fortunately we're going to see just limited rashing of energy but if this war doesn't resolve by next summer by this spring next winter could be a much more difficult Journey for Europe to get through in terms of gas supplies so I think the the duration of the war in Ukraine is a is a existential issue for Europe for Germany in particular and will the Germans maintain their willingness to support the ukrainians as the cost to their economy continues to grow and in particular if winter 23-24 could involve a full-on energy crisis what happens to the German psyche in supporting their neighbor in Europe so that's a that's a really big issue right here right now click this video to watch Frank eustro reveal why we are headed towards a great monetary reset and how to secure your wealth during these times
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