저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 다음 경기침체는 본인 생애 최악이 될 것이며, 원자재 외 자산은 거품이라는 비관적 전망. [경기침체·금리·인플레이션] 2008년은 부채 때문이었고 지금 부채는 그때보다 훨씬 크므로 다음 침체는 최악일 것이다. 금리는 역사상 최저 수준에서 올랐으니 더 오를 수밖에 없고, 인플레이션도 중앙은행의 대규모 통화 발행으로 쉽게 사라지지 않는다. 과거 1970년대 국채금리가 21%까지 치솟았던 경험을 근거로 드라마틱한 긴축이 필요하고 시장 고통이 클 것이라 본다. 일시적 물가 안정은 착시이며, 전쟁·유가 등이 인플레를 다시 자극할 수 있다. [중앙은행] 연준은 폐지하는 것이 낫고, 중앙은행은 시장보다 실수를 더 많이 한다고 비판한다. [자산별 거품 판단] 채권은 역사상 가장 비싼 거품 상태이며, 뉴질랜드·한국·미국 등지의 부동산도 역사적으로 터무니없이 비싸다고 본다. 주식 중 일부(삼성 등 급등 종목 포함)는 명백한 거품이었다고 평가한다. 은은 고점 대비 60% 하락, 설탕도 고점 대비 60% 하락해 거품이 아니라고 본다. [원자재 투자] 원자재가 유일하게 거품이 아닌 자산군이라고 본다. 전기차는 가솔린차보다 구리를 4~5배 더 쓰는데 구리 광산 개발은 오랫동안 없었기에 펀더멘털상 기회가 있다. 원자재 투자 방법으로는 실물, 선물, 지수 등이 있으며, 수요·공급을 이해할 수 있다면 기회가 있다고 한다. [투자 조언] 본인이 잘 아는 분야에만 투자하고 핫팁은 피하라는 조언을 한다. [출연자 비트코인 관련] 영상 설명란의 비트코인 관련 내용은 본 영상의 주장이 아니므로 제외한다.
다듬은 글
my viewers the next time we have one it's going to be the worst in my lifetime 2008 was bad because of debt the debt is so much higher now that the next recession has to be the worst in my lifetime if I were the head of the Federal Reserve I would abolish the Federal Reserve and then resign Jim Rogers co-founder of the quantum fund and creator of the Rogers International Commodities index has been a well-known figure in International Investment Banking for decades since his retirement he's traveled across the world and put down routes in Singapore eager to set up his family for as he sees it great opportunities to come he claims to see a massive recession beginning worse than he's ever seen before and he has just the idea to keep investors afloat in tough market conditions in this essential investing highlight Roger speaks his mind on the central bank's roles in inflation and the global recession looming Over the Horizon he shares which asset classes will boom and which are still in a bubble so you can adjust your investments from Maximum profit but there's a big role out there but the US is the largest and most important Market the US has had the longest period in its history without a big May is your problem economic problem you know since 2009 things have been reasonably good in the U.S that's the longest in our history that does not mean it cannot go 30 years man but the facts on this is the longest hour or so it causes one to wonder now I wonder a lot because I see huge debts that have piled up since 2009 I mean we had a big problem in 2008 because of too much debt since 2009 the debt has skyrocketed everywhere even China has a lot of debt now and China had no debt 25 or 30 years ago but everybody has big debt now especially Us in the United States unfortunately I don't I don't like saying that so we've always had bear markets we've always had recessions we will always have them despite what the politicians in Washington tell you and in my view is the next time we have one it's going to be the worst in my lifetime 2008 was bad because of debt the debt is so much higher now that the next recession has to be the worst in my lifetime I mean it's simple looking out the window and seeing what's going on in the world so my view is that we are in a period a dangerous period interest rates are going higher inflation is going higher because they printed staggering amounts of money everybody printed staggering amounts of money America Japan everybody printed huge event so we have this big inflation problem it's not going to go away without drastic action and as interest rates go higher it's going to affect markets around the world that we're going to have a very serious bear Market you should be worried the fact that interest rates were the lowest they'd been in the recorded history is a danger assigned to Media that's not a good sign they can only go up they have to go up if they're the lowest they've ever been in the history of the world and they were artificial they were absurd as we're all finding out but never I would I was around in the 70s interest rates went to own treasury bills went to 21 on Treasure bills in 1980 so when we have serious inflation problem it's hard to deal with and it takes drastic action and it hurts I feel like the consensus at this point is that everyone believes that it's coming back down and quick but the long history of inflation is often such that it tends to be a little sticky you know once you have inflation pop up very rarely does it kind of pop up and come back down would that would say is that was that your experience is that your familiarity or how to kind of well maybe you know very well nothing goes straight up or straight down they're UPS Downs ups and downs there's Corrections along the way that happens with inflation too and yes if the price of oil skyrockets and then calms down for a while people think ah inflation is coming down but they're usually temporary especially when you have staggering amounts of money Printing and it's compounded by War and War makes it more difficult to plant crops or to harvest anything when you have War but the main problem we had inflation before your brain and unless something is happening dramatic we're going to continue to have inflation because as the economy slow down worldwide central banks will print more money it's Japanese already printing staggering amounts of money and they have said we will continue to print money it's the second largest economy in the world the third largest economy in the world and when you have all these guys printing money and Washington will too don't they hear it if they start slowing down man the Federal Reserve is going to print more money they're going to loosen up again they don't care about you and me they care about their jobs and that's how they think they'll keep their job it's not good for us but they think it's good for them Rogers goes on to comment on Rising interest rates and the coming recession and which assets will weather the storm best in your portfolio hit the like subscribe and Bell notifications so you get immediate notification of tomorrow's episode where Mr Wonderful Kevin O'Leary reveals what he is doing this losing crypto bags and stock Holdings this year to get some of the losses back from the tax payment if I were the head of the Federal Reserve I would abolish the Federal Reserve and then resign we've had three central banks in American history the first two disappeared for a variety of reasons the world many times has not had central banks the world has survived without central banks in my view usually these guys make more mistakes than they are you know people think they're smart they're just bureaucrats and academics they're no smaller than the market and in my experience the market is smarter than I am and I presume it's more harder than the central banks too so I'd get along without central Bankers okay so rates have come up pretty quick inflation even faster I think we're over eight the last time we'll see where it comes in in October what's the average investor to do where do people hide out what should they be thinking about what should they be doing in a world where stocks and bonds are both getting hammered at the same time well first of all there are other Investments besides stocks involved but my main answer to you is people should only invest in what they themselves know a lot about don't listen to other people stay with what you know don't listen to Hot Tips everybody wants a hot tub everybody wants to be rich this week including me you know I'd like to be rich this week too but hot chips will ruin you so the main advice is stay with what you know and everybody listening to this knows a lot about something whether it's cars or fashion or Sports something stay with what you know and when you see an opportunity then you should invest now people say that's boring be boring if you want to be rich be boring stay with what you know and you will have great opportunities for quite a while definitely became associated with an area we like we talk a lot about on this podcast is the world of Natural Resources in particular Commodities those Commodities look to you well let's look at all assets which is what I have to do every day of my life we know that bonds are still in a bubble bonds have never been never gotten that expensive in the history of the world so bonds are a bubble you know property in many places is a bubble if you go to New Zealand or Korea or many places in the U.S property is absurdly expensive on a historic basis stocks we have been talking about some mini stocks got to be crazies Samsung goes up went up every day Apple went up every day you know some stocks were clearly a bubble the only thing that's not a bubble that I know of is Commodities I mean Silver's down 60 percent from its all-time high sugars down 60 from its all-time high that these are not bubble kinds of numbers when you have assets that are down 50 60 70 percent from their all-time high so the only asset class I know that's not a bubble but hasn't been in a bubble or Commodities and everything that's happening in the world is good for many Commodities it looks like we're going to have electric vehicles well electric vehicles use four or five times as much copper as a gasoline vehicle so and nobody's been opening compromise and lead mines for a long time so it looks to me like the fundamentals as well as the prices for Commodities might lead to Opportunities how do you think about for most investors is it the actual you know commodity exposure itself is a commodity equities is it both does it depend how should people really be thinking about them well there are many ways to invest in Commodities of Agriculture I mean the best ways to become a farmer by land and become a farmer you're getting extremely rich but other than that you can buy chairs you can buy Futures you can buy indexes there are many ways to invest in Commodities some of them simple ways didn't say it was simple to make money I said there's simple ways to invest in Commodities and then go to it but most people are afraid of Commodities everybody's told them all their lives that Commodities are dangerous well he has anything is dangerous if you don't know what you're doing but if you know a lot about lead you might make a whole lot of money if you figure out a way whether a stock or a future or whatever to invest in in Commodities and commodities by the way are simpler nobody can know IBM or Microsoft not even the chairman because there's so many employees etc etc but sugar is very simple we all know what sugar is everybody watching this knows what sugar is so that's a good start and if you can figure out the supply and demand I didn't say it was easy I just said it's easier than figure out the idea for Microsoft or apple or something like that what's this video that blew up the internet where Michael saler reveals and the 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