저자: TomLee/패널StephanieGuild,CourtneyGarcia · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee는 실적 기반 강세 속에서도 8000 부근 도달 후 8월 말 전후 10% 조정 가능성을 경고. 근거: 마진부채 과다, Warsh 연준 체제 불확실성, 중간선거 불확실성, SpaceX 락업 해제. 패널은 펀더멘털·실적 상향과 선거 전 이란 긴장 완화 가능성을 들어 대규모 조정에는 회의적. 나스닥은 한 달 반간 11~12% 조정 후 디레버리징이 진행됐다고 평가. 영상 발화자는 포트폴리오 94% 상승을 언급하며 콜옵션 매도 등을 제시.
다듬은 글
Tom Lee appeared on CNBC and essentially said that the markets are going to go up in the near future, but we are about to run into some problems. And he still calls for correction. Betting against Tom Lee in the past wasn't smart, but I agree to some extent. I disagree to some extent . I'm going to share with you this five-minute video, what Tomley says and his arguments, and I'm going to share with you what I think is going to happen here over the next few months.
Which I think you should also be doing in your portfolio right now. For example, is it time to take profit? Is it time to hedge? What are you doing now? I know this is something I personally struggle with, as the portfolio we started in the trading community earlier this year has grown almost 94% year-to-date.
This is not equipment. It's like software, cyclical industrial stocks. You know, I have a very specific strategy for what we're doing here. If you guys want to join us, the link is down below in the description of today's episode. In short , we're just looking for opportunities before we hit Wall Street.
And it's a very profitable thing and the way we do it. Hmm, obviously this is not a recommendation , not financial advice. You can lose money, blah blah blah blah -blah. Like, don't be an idiot here. Read the disclaimer, okay? But even I'm like: dude, since the beginning of the year the stock has gone up 94%, up 115,000.
Is this possible? Right? Should I take profit now? So I'll share with you what I do in my portfolio. Don't worry at all. We have something to work on. Click the "like" button. Subscribe to the channel if you haven't already . It's free 0.99. It will cost you absolutely nothing. And let's begin. So, I want to start with a clip from Tom Lee.
This lasts about 5 minutes. And then I want to share my perspective, what I think will happen to the markets, and what to do now, what I'm doing now. So, listen up. Move into the stock with goals and optimism that are growing. Let's welcome to our panel. Interesting stratospheric Tom Lee, Robin Hood Stephanie Guild and Pain Capitals Courtney Garcia.
Tom and Courtney are contributors to CNBC. Congratulations to everyone. Glad you're here, Tom. This is just what the doctor ordered, right? That's right. We got a good CPI report, and on the back of good earnings, stocks are rising on the good news. I think the growth is pretty healthy and it's consistent with our view that we can hit 7900-8000 by the end of the month.
Well, that's exactly what you thought, you know, the other day. Edard Denny says we are monitoring the situation now. so good that we can reach 8400 by the end of the year thanks to the earnings story we keep talking about. Do you have clear theses? Yeah, I think that's kind of the basis of it, because the 2027 earnings are probably 410 right now.
At the beginning of the reporting season, it was around 395, and it's probably going to be around 425 by the end of this month. So if you add a factor of 20 to that, you're already close to 9,000. So we keep saying that you were optimistic. You were right, but you continue to call for this, maybe a 10% stock cut at some point .
We haven't received it yet . And you are stating in a note today, where it says, and I quote: " Positive factors for stocks in the near term remain good fundamental demand for AI, right?" A strengthening US economy, positive earnings revisions and the fact that inflation remains lower than most expect.
These don't sound like catalysts for a 10 % pullback. So what is it? "Well, I think pullbacks happen when we least expect it, you know, and usually when investors are optimistic." So, I think hitting 8,000 at the end of August will set us up for a period where stocks could disappoint, even if the underlying fundamentals are good.
This is partly because margin debt has become so large. Part of this is because we still haven't decided how the market will perceive Kevin Warsh and his new structure, or whether the bond market will go into hysterics. And third, we have midterm elections coming up, and I think that's a source of uncertainty.
And finally, I think SpaceX, which had an initial unlock, still has a lot of stock to unlock. So I think all of this reflects the potential pitfalls ahead. Okay, Steph, what do you think about this? Uh, I mean, usually when you have a period where a hedge fund, for example, goes bust, that's a sign that there might just be easy credit conditions and a buildup of leverage.
I think it kind of passed, but I don't think we'll have another one. I just think that in this environment where AI is driving the processes, you end up having almost rapid collapses. I heard Jordi Visser from 22V say, and I agree with that , because I think you have parabolic moves and then consolidations of sorts .
I also think that interest rates are certainly a risk that could continue to rise. Hmm, but I also agree that there are strong fundamentals . So I think it will be a struggle in the market. The resilience of the market has been impressive, given what you described. You know, hedge funds are exploding, yields are falling, but aren't we a little cleaner in many ways now, right?
You reduce the burden on the inflation picture a little bit, the positioning is cleaner, and we reduced leverage a little bit. Tom is right. There is still a lot of leverage, margin debt, etc. in the system, but it seems like we have cleaned up a bit. But I think as growth continues, you start to recover it, and that's why I say you can have a different kind of pullback because the margin debt is recovering.
Corte, are people too optimistic? I don't think so. And I think ultimately, markets are driven by earnings right now , and earnings justify what markets do. People started to worry about capital expenditures. But I think the more you see these profits, the more it justifies itself. And I think if you look at the markets as a whole, if you look at the last three months, the leaders are healthcare, financials, industrials– they're all actually outperforming the S&P 500, which means you're seeing this really broad-based growth.
So the markets hold more than just seven names. And the fact that even in times when artificial intelligence is driving history, you see everyone participating in it. I really like this as a good story. And if profits continue to stay high and consumers continue to grow, I think the markets will continue to grow.
I'm glad you paid attention to this , because if you look at, let's say, the balance sheet for the last 30 days, the financial indicators for 1 month are almost 4%, technologies are 3% and A4%. industrials 2 1/2, healthcare 4 and 2/3 materials better than 3%. This is exactly what people were hoping for, right?
Yes, this is broad growth. Uh, I think it's a sign. And of course, as you know, global markets are doing well, and there are still several trillion dollars of cash sitting on the sidelines. And I think there's still a pretty large level of healthy skepticism, because I think a lot of our clients, institutional ones, believe that either the AI trade is going to continue or that we're at the end of the earnings cycle, like an earnings bubble that's about to burst.
Right. And then, of course, they think the Fed should respond to this by tightening monetary policy. So I think there are people who are kind of watching the end of the bull market, and I think that's what keeps it healthy. I think I actually confirm this because if you look at the estimates, they're actually down two percent, but earnings growth has more than doubled since the end of March.
And so I think there's a sound basis, I can imagine, for the numbers behind the skepticism, and I welcome the skepticism because I actually think it means the bull market could go on for a little while longer. And this is something like 1998 after the long-term capital market (LTCM ) implementation, when the market grew for another 18 months and by 35%.
So I think Tom Lee is mostly very valid in his arguments. If you delve into this in more detail, yes, the new Fed is a problem. And I think the markets are perceiving the lack of communication as something more negative than it actually is, because every time we get economic data, for example, the labor market has been weakening for several months now.
Retail sales were very low today. Inflation was low. In my opinion, this is a recipe for the Fed to put it on pause, right? And even potentially lowered rates next year. Markets still expect a rate hike until March 2027 . So I think there's a lot of opportunity for markets to be wrong all the time, right?
From a Fed perspective, and I don't think the markets should panic just because we have a new Fed chairman. I think if it was meant to happen, it would have already happened. If the markets are panicking about the Fed, it's because we got a hot CPI report, we got a very hot employment report, something like that happened.
And that's a risk in this market right now. And that will be with us, I mean, until we get more confidence about the trends. So this isn't going anywhere, and it's not a new thing. Number two, and I really wish Tom Lee would talk about this because I think he would agree with it . You know, the war with Iran, it's such a focus for the Fed, for the markets, for fighting inflation, for all of that.
And we're so close to the midterm elections now. In my opinion, I think we are much more likely to receive good news than bad news. I don't see an escalation of the Iranian conflict right before the midterm elections. I don't think raising gas prices before the midterm elections is good for your political career or what you want to accomplish over the next two years if you're Trump, right?
I think right now it's about damage reduction and, you know, getting gasoline prices down. I think that's why the bombs are n't flying at the moment. So, if we look at this in the probability spectrum , the highest probability is de-escalation or some good news within the next month or two. And that could actually lead to positive shifts from the Fed, positive inflation expectations, lower oil prices, stronger consumers, and really help markets perform well.
Another point I'll make is something that not many people talk about, but the NASDAQ has fallen 11-12% in about a month and a half. You know, again, they were talking about something like deleveraging happening. Come on, dude. Run away . This cat is scary, man. He'll come right in my face and hit me.
Yes, that's what a water bottle is for. But, nevertheless, yes, you saw this as leverage. The markets are in a better position now compared to how they were two months ago. And I warned about this on the channel. I said, look, stay away from the equipment. Don't buy SanDisk at $2,300 a share. What is happening?
Right? I...I remember saying then, I felt like I was in the Twilight Zone. Everyone was so optimistic, and I'm like: What are you guys doing? You know, SanDisk, since I've been making these warnings, you know, at a price of 2,300, $22 a share, it's down 31% from where it was . At one point, it fell by 57.5% .
You know, I don't know exactly what will happen next with the equipment trade. I don't think you'll get into some crazy FOMO (fear of missing out) environment. I… I… I just don't believe it . I don't think there's a collapse in leverage and FOMO and then it goes away and then comes back. I've never seen anything like this before.
I have never seen any market sector experience FOMO ( fear of missing out) twice. Like electric cars, right? The FOMO of 2021 never happened again. Cannabis was FOMO in 2017. He never returned. Solar energy, you know, there was also some FOMO in 2021. It never came back, even though the fundamentals of these companies actually improved.
So, FOMO and fundamentals don't really mix. So, we saw an 11-12% pullback in the NASDAQ, a deleveraging event . I don't think you need to see some kind of grand correction that Tom Lee is calling for, do you? Hmm, there will definitely be volatility. But I don't think you need to see the kind of correction we think you do because you've already seen it.
And unless we get bad news from economic data that suggests the Fed may raise rates, or unless we get, you know, bad news from the Iran war, which seems unlikely to me, I don't see a catalyst for a broader market pullback unless we get some kind of broad market rally. And we've seen a little bit of growth recently, but I don't think we're that overwhelmed.
Look at the software profits , right? Whether it's Data Dog, or Adobe, or a bunch of companies came out and reported great earnings, Apple, Loven, and still fell about 20%. Figma, you know, little misses, or most of them actually won and just got crushed. There is a lot of fear and skepticism in certain areas of this market, but again, keep in mind that this is the midterm election period, so there will be a lot of hedging of events.
There are a lot of risks surrounding the midterm elections right now, right? And the seasonality around that . So what is Wall Street doing? They say, “Oh, look, there’s a period of seasonal volatility before the midterm elections. We have the risk of intermediate events. We may have something happen that could exacerbate this.
"Let's go get our briefcases, shall we?" So, overall there will be more volatility, but I don't think you need any correction, as you think a correction is something like a 10-15% decline. But again, this is something I struggle with now that our portfolios are up 94% year-to-date in the trading community.
If you guys want to get involved, the link is below in the description of today's episode. Again, don't be stupid, please. Hmm, draw your own conclusions. Of course, you have to understand the companies you invest in, but what are you doing now, you know? And when I look at the environment, I see so many people who are still pessimistic about the stocks that we bought.
It's like: are you recording a profit now? What are you doing? Hmm, I'm personally not doing anything in this portfolio right now. For example, I don't do any serious hedging or anything like that. But if you are in a similar position and have a large profit, I think selling call options probably makes the most sense.
You still give yourself some profit if the stock falls. If your positions are falling, you can still make money when they fall, right? So selling call options, I think, is quite attractive right now , especially if some of the stocks you own have performed well. But also remember that this is earnings season, and there are irrational reactions in the market right now .
And one example is Apploving. You know, the stock is up 53%. Management forecasts 30% compounded income growth over the next 10 years. The stock is trading at about 20 times the S&P forward earnings multiple . Stocks fell. You know, in June it was a $600 deal. Today it costs $320. There will be irrational emotional reactions in the markets right now.
And I think you want to be a sniper, right? When you see these opportunities, you want to take advantage of them, you know, because that's how you beat the markets. That's how you, you know, win and make a lot of money as an investor. I do n't think you should buy the NASDAQ or S&P at all-time highs right now.
But if maybe Target drops 20% because of some weird metric they missed, it's like: really? Does this make sense? Should they have fallen by 20%? You know, and I'm just making up nonsense. It can be any promotion that interests you. You want to be a sniper in this environment, taking opportunities as they come, not necessarily rushing into everything.
Does this make sense? Now we're going to talk about this in more detail, look at it in detail and in depth over the course of this weekend. So, if you guys resonate with some of our words or want to hear more, hit the subscribe button so you don't miss future videos. Again, . That's all. Click the Like button before leaving. Have a nice day, and see you next time.
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