저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 그랜섬은 2021년 1월 현재 미국 시장이 1929·2000년급 대형 거품의 막바지에 있으며 결국 나쁘게 끝날 가능성이 높다고 본다. 거품 진단 근거: 버핏지표(시총/GDP)가 2000년 사상 최고치를 넘었고, 2020년 IPO 480건(이 중 스팩 248건)으로 2000년 406건을 넘어섰다. 3배 이상 오른 비소형주가 150개로 최근 10년 중 어느 해보다 많다. 소액 개인의 미국주식 콜옵션 거래량은 2019년 대비 8배 증가했다. 실러의 CAPE는 2000년 고점에 근접하지만 채권 대비로는 주식 고평가가 덜하다고 보았고, 채권은 역사적으로 더 비싸다고 지적했다. 시점 예측 불가: 거품 붕괴 시점은 예측이 불가능하며 고평가는 필요조건일 뿐 충분조건이 아니다. 그는 '하락장 성공'을 정확한 타이밍이 아닌 결국 시장 밖에 있어 돈을 아낀 상태가 오는 것으로 정의했다. 연준 비판: 그린스펀·버냉키·옐런·파월 모두 자산가격 상승을 경제에 도움이 되는 부의 효과로 활용했으나 붕괴 책임은 지지 않았다고 비판했다. 연준이 시장을 무한정 떠받칠 수 없다고 본다. 투자자 심리: 거품 막바지에는 투자자들이 시장을 정당화하는 비합리적 이유를 만들어낸다. 2020년 중반 이후 가속 상승은 후기 거품의 전형이다. 출연자 전망: 그랜섬은 시장 하락을 예상하며 현금 비중 확대 및 방어적 태도를 권한다. 다만 단기적으로는 더 오를 수 있으므로 하락 조짐이 보이면 빠르게 빠져나와야 한다는 입장이다. 군중 심리 경계: 버핏의 '남들이 탐욕스러울 때 두려워하라' 격언을 인용하며, 미디어와 유튜브에서 주식 매수 권유가 넘쳐나는 현 상황을 경계할 것을 강조했다. 영상 요약자 의견: 영상 제작자는 그랜섬의 경력(40년 이상)을 근거로 신뢰를 강조하고 군중 추종을 피하라고 권한다. 대상 자산 직접 언급 없음: 개별 종목·지수에 대한 명시적 가격 목표나 방향 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
jeremy grantham one of the most legendary investors on wall street who is arguably in the ranks of warren buffett charlie munger and ray dalio has just come out with some extremely harsh and detailed reasoning as to why he believes we are currently in an epic market bubble today i will cover the main points of his most recent publication waiting for the last dance and also talk about why as warren buffett puts it you should be fearful right now as an investor so stay tuned hi everybody welcome back to the contrarian for those of you who are new here my name is logan i really like to talk about overall success in investing and most of all going against crowd thinking mentality within the investing world and elsewhere so if you like these kinds of topics just consider subscribing and i also will make a disclaimer that i'm not a financial advisor so don't take any of this as personal financial advice and first of all to begin with i want to make it clear how big of a deal this is for jeremy grantham to be saying this um jeremy grantham for those of you who don't know he's a long-term investor and strategist and the co-founder of gmo he co-founded it in 1977 um so he's been around for a long time he's a very experienced and seasoned investor he's been through a lot of markets market cycles he's seen a lot of bubbles pop in the past so he's not one of these kind of newbies or come by night um investors who are out there just trying to get attention he's a very well seasoned investor he's fairly old kind of like warren buffett he's been through a lot of market cycles and this is also not going to be an exhausting you know exhaustive reading of his entire article i'm just going to um you know pull out some sections that i think really do summarize his main points so we'll start out with the um basic summary of his entire article the long long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully fledged epic bubble featuring extreme overvaluation explosive price increases frenzied issuance and hysterically speculative investor behavior i believe this event will be recorded as one of the great bubbles of financial history right along with the south sea bubble 1929 and 2000.
these great bubbles are where fortunes are made and lost and where investors truly prove their mettle for positioning a portfolio to avoid the worst pain of a major bubble breaking is likely the most difficult part even career incentive every career incentive in the industry and every fault of individual human psychology will work towards sucking investors in but this bubble will burst in due time no matter how hard the fed tries to support it with cons consultant damaging effects on the economy and on portfolios make no mistake for the majority of investors today this could very well be the most important event of your investing lives speaking as an old student and historian of markets it is intellectually exciting and terrifying at the same time it is a privilege to ride through a market like this one more time so to begin with he really focuses on a lot to begin yeah his first point major point is that this is an epic bubble it's in the ranks of these past major bubbles that we would look back on and think you know oh this could never happen again you know the great depression crash of 1929 you know the dot-com crash of 2000 you know these things would never happen again but according to jeremy grantham that is what is actually currently happening um also just what i like to focus on with investor psychology and avoiding avoiding following the crowd is what grantham is really focusing on here um and just how tempting it will be and how tempting it currently is for investors to get sucked into the market right now i'm just every sort of fear of missing out and following the crowd is wanting to lead you down that path but he really focuses on you know you have to think for yourself um and also he apparently believes that the fed cannot prevent this kind of crash from you know occurring i know that a lot of people out there think that the fed could basically you know buy everything and backstop everything to prevent such a crash from happening but apparently jeremy grantham is not um in that category he does not believe the fed has unlimited buying power i would also agree with that to some extent just simply because the fed cannot they never you know are looking forward they're always reacting so if such an abrupt crash were to happen there'd just be no way they could respond in the amount of time that it would be needed they would have to respond instantaneously if not you know preemptively actually before the crash so on there is just no way they could backstop such a crash as that um let's read on how are clients to tell the difference between extreme market behavior and a manager who has lost his way the usual evidence of talent is past success but the long cycles of the market are few and far between winning two of two events or three out of three is not as convincing as a larger sample size would be even worse the earlier the earlier major market breaks are already long gone 2008 2000 or 1989 in japan or practically in the history books most of the players will have changed certainly the satisfaction felt by others who eventually won long ago is no solace for current pain experienced by you personally a simpler way of saying this may be that if keynes had really said the market can stay irrational longer than the investor can stay solvent he would have been right i'm long retired from the job of portfolio management but i'm happy to give my opinion here it is highly probable that we are in a major bubble event in the u.s market of the type we typically have every several decades and last had in the late 1990s it will very probably end badly although nothing is certain i will also tell you my definition of success for a bear market call it is simply that sooner or later there will come a time when an investor is pleased to have been out of the market that is to say he will have saved money by being out and also have reduced the risk of volatility on the round trip this definition of success absolutely does not include precise timing predicting when a bubble breaks is not about valuation all prior bubble markets have been extremely overvalued as is this one overvaluation is a necessary but not sufficient condition for their bursting calling the weak month or quarter of the top is all but impossible so here grantham really talks about how yeah this is probably you know we're probably in a market bubble situation similar to um these past you know historical bubbles that we look back on but also it's just so impossible to predict when these bubbles will pop certain people like to say that they were able to predict you know when the housing market bubble burst or when the dot-com bubble burst but oftentimes it's just really often times they're just they had been saying that for the last several years and then they you know they said it you know the week before it ended up bursting so it is just really really difficult if not impossible to predict when a bubble will pop but yeah let's read on he really goes into the details of why he believes this is very overvalued the buffett indicator total stock market capitalization to gdp broke through its all-time high 2000 record in 2020 there were 480 ipo's including an incredible 248 specs more new listings than the 406 ipos in 2000 there are 150 non-micro-cap companies that is with market capitalization of over 250 million that have been that have more than tripled in the year which is over three times as many as any year in the previous decade the volume of small retail purchases of less than 10 contracts call options on u.s equities has increased eight-fold compared to 2019 and 2019 was already well above long-run average perhaps most troubling of all nobel laureate and long time bear robert schiller who currently correctly and bravely called the 2000 2007 bubbles and who is one of the very few economists i respect is hedging his bets this time recently making the point that his legendary cape asset pricing indicator which suggests stocks are nearly as overpriced in the 2000 bubble peak shows less impressive overvaluation when compared to bonds bonds however are even more spectacularly expensive by historical comparison the stocks oh my so i'm not at all surprised that since the summer the market has advanced at an accelerating rate and with increasing speculative excesses it is precisely what you should expect from a late stage bubble an accelerating nearly vertical stage of unknowable length but typically short even if it is short the stage at the end of a bubble is shockingly painful and full of career risks for bears i'm doubling down because as prices move further away from trend at accelerating speed and with growing speculative fervor of course my confidence as a market historian increases that this is indeed the stage of a bubble a bubble that is beginning to look like a real humdinger so yeah he really lays out a lot of fundamentals there for why just this is such an outsider in terms of past statistics regarding the market i'm just the buffett indicator being at an all-time high but then all these really really bad signs of you know ipos all these new specs all this speculation going on in the market it just really doesn't bode well and now he goes on to talk about more of the speculative and investor psychology behind bubbles and this is what i really like to focus on on my channel is investor psychology and how you as an investor can avoid these kind of common traps that investors fall into and most of all avoid following the crowd because if you want to beat the market if you want to beat the crowd you have to go where the crowd is not going and that's just fundamental rule of beating the market so let's read on all bubbles and with near universal acceptance that the current one will not end yet because because in 1929 the economy had clicked into a permanently high plateau because greenspan's fed in 2000 was predicting an enduring improvement in productivity and was pledging its loyalty or moral hazard to the stock market because bernanke believed in 2006 that u.s house prices will merely reflect a strong us economy as he perpetuated the moral hazard if you can win you're on your own but if you lose you can count on our support yelen and now powell maintained this approach all three of powell's predecessors claimed that the asset prices they helped inflate or turn in turn aided the economy through the wealth effect which effect we all admit is real but all three avoided claiming credit for the enduring market breaks that eventually followed the equity bust of 2000 and the housing bust of 2008 each replete with the accompanying anti-wealth effect that came when we least needed it exaggerating the already guaranteed weakness in the economy this game surely is the ultimate game with the devil so yeah he goes on to say how you know again we're at all-time highs where it um yeah the fundamentals are not there for the economy and the stock market to be doing this well and the economy is actually not doing well um but yeah it's just he goes into why as as bubbles get near the the peak that investors sent them in just is so wrong people just end up making up these reasons as to why you know the the market why they think the market will continue going higher and just these really nonsensical reasons that don't make any sense and just just recently um there's been so much of that going around on wall street right now just you know how you know current claims that oh you know technicals have overcome fundamentals or um you know the fed can backstop anything and they'll buy anything if it crashes so just continue to buy the dip i just see so much of that same investor sentiment out there right now so let's go to the end where he finishes up so here we are again i expect once again for my bubble call to meet my modest definition of success at some future date whenever that might be it will have paid for you to have ducked from mid-summer of 2020 but few professional or individual investors will have been able to abduct the combination of timing uncertainty and rapidly accelerating regret on the part of clients means that the career and business risk of fighting the bubble is too great for a large commercial enterprises they can never put their full weight behind bearish advice even if the pe goes to 65 times as it did in japan the nearest any of these giant indus institutions have come to offering fully bearish advice in a bubble was ubs in 1999 whose position was nearly identical to ours at gmo that is to say somewhat brave and foolhardy luckily for us they changed their attack and converted to a fully invested growth stock recommendation at ubs princeton and its subsidiary in february 2000 just before the market peak this took out the 800 pound gorilla that would otherwise have taken most of the rewards for stubborn contrarians so he's basically saying that it's going to be very rare for investors to see this coming into wait and to have the patience to wait but obviously if you know me i like going against the crowd it's the only way you can really beat the market so i really encourage you to just think for yourself at this point in time and to heed jeremy grantham's wards and take them with put a lot of weight to them because he's a very experienced investor so this is jeremy's take and i put a lot of weight behind what he says he's not just some youtuber clickbait creator and he's not some inexperienced trader again he's had 40 plus years of experience on wall street and he's seen the extent that market euphoria and crowd thinking can override you know sound investment thinking and this is the kind of situation you as a contrarian investor should be fearful in according to a famous quote by warren buffett which is be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful and in the past few months and accelerating until recently i cannot explain how quickly investor sentiment has shifted from caution to indifference and now to full-fledged euphoria or greed as warren buffett would put it um and yet you don't have to look far to see all of these headlines how you need to get into equities now just bye bye bye is the message out there by basically all the investing media and the crowd of investors who've been sitting out for the last nine months are finally jumping back in um so yeah just look at this headline of jim cramer saying you need to get into equities same with chamoth polyhepatia and cnbc and bloomberg and market insider and youtubers are all going wild with enthusiasm but now is not the time to follow the crowd in fact if you want to be the crowd you never want to follow the crowd and so be what warren buffett told you to be which is fearful which is his way of saying be very cautious at this point in time don't let your emotions or fear missing out get in the way of making sound decisions um the truth is that there are still some very real concerns that the market and crowd of investors is ignoring as grantham just laid out the fundamentals for another bull market aren't there and rather the fundamentals for an epic crash are currently there so you could potentially stay in a little longer and make it big in the coming weeks um yeah it could continue to run up even more but um you if you do stay in more you should really be ready to get out very quickly if you see it yeah it's starting to crash um you know it very it very well could be a very short-lived market run up before an epic crash um so yeah this is you know the major points of jeremy grantham's waiting for the last dance that i wanted to share with you and also just um yeah encouraging you all of you guys out there to think for yourself and to not get led astray by the crowd of euphoria that's going on out there so uh if you guys like these kinds of topics just consider subscribing and i hope to see you again
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