저자: TomLee · 외국인
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엔비디아가 일시적으로 애플을 제치고 시총 1위에 오른 이슈를 다룸. AI 칩 수요와 Blackwell 출하 확대로 실적 성장 전망이 강하다고 봄. 다만 2025년 상반기 AI 투자 소화(digestion) 국면 가능성을 경고하며, 단기적으로는 연말 신고가 가능성을 언급. 엔비디아 PER 58, PEG 0.14 이하로 성장 대비 저평가 주장.
다듬은 글
we the world of investing just got a jaw-dropping jolt with a headline that's setting the stock market a buzz inidia the Silicon Valley Powerhouse has briefly toppled the tech Titan Apple in a spectacular display of Market prowess this rare shift in the stock hierarchy didn't just cause waves it Unleashed a tsunami in financial circles worldwide for those paying close attention beyond the initial astonishment lies an intricate story of AI Revolution strategic Maneuvers and a ferocious battle for dominance among Tech Giants hold on to your portfolios because in a market where every tick counts nvidia's journey is nothing short of electrifying watch as Nvidia and apple among other Tech behemoths dance around dizzying valuations each striving to stay ahead in a rapidly evolving landscape of artificial intelligence hello everyone and welcome back to invest ocracy in a week where we're poised for a lot of semiconductor news whether it is NVIDIA speaking down in DC or AMD with its event obviously this update with super micro I mean is there still a trade to be had there are there still gains to be had in the sector I think again you're going to have to pick stock so I think with Nvidia it's not going to surprise me to see that hit new all-time record highs before the end of the year because Blackwell in a weird way the fact that it's been delayed is good for them because nobody wants to get out of line and Mis getting those chips because they're two to three times more powerful than the current generation of chips out there so we like quite a in what might seem counterintuitive we like Nvidia actually through year end because of that now I've been pretty open about saying I think there's going to be an AI digestion phase coming I think it's going to happen in the first half of 20125 I think you're going to have a big problem when that occurs because you haven't seen revenues for the companies spending all of this money on ai go up they've all gone down what do I mean by that Google Microsoft Amazon three of the four biggest Spenders on AI infrastructure after they reported the June quarter all of their Ford Revenue estimates went down and that's why those stocks had some issues so unless you see all this spending translate into revenues you're going to get a digestion phase and by the way that happened after covid nvidia's revenues went from being up over 80% year-over-year to being down over 20% year-over-year as these same customers digested all of the covid span so Nvidia is kind of complicated but in the short term I think there's a good shot you see new record highs before the year is over nvidia's astonishing rise to momentarily claim the crown as the most valuable company in the world is a story that reads like a blockbuster Thriller with its market value touching an unprecedented $ 3.53 trillion edging just a hair past Apple's $ 3.52 trillion the semiconductor giant has fueled excitement and speculation one might say it's like Nvidia powered up from level one to boss mode in the gaming World it knows so well the real Catalyst here nvidia's prowess in artificial intelligence chips these high performance chips are the engine driving the AI boom essential for models like open ai's chat GPT which has captivated the digital Frontier nvidia's chips take center stage in this AI performance and the demand is nothing short of extraordinary since its Inception as a designer of video game processors in Nvidia has transformed playing a pivotal role in the broader Tech Cloudscape Russ mold AJ Bell PLC investment director encapsulates the sentiment saying more companies are now embracing artificial intelligence in their everyday tasks and demand remains strong for NVIDIA chips yet what does the market tell us beyond the numerical dance analysts look toward the Horizon and see Nvidia shipping 55% more of its AI gpus in 2025 trendforce and mizuo suggest that with the launch of nvidia's NextGen Blackwell processors the company could see these chips account for up to 80% of its AI GPU shipments adding to the optimism taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing Co nvidia's Foundry partner is doubling down on its production capabilities an annual growth in its packaging capacity is on a tear which allies perfectly with nvidia's trajectorhe video and meantime shares of Nvidia up nearly 3% today for its fourth straight day of gains it is now up more than 40% from its August 5ifth lows less than 10% from its all-time high the chipmaker kicking off its 3-day AI Summit this morning Morgan Stanley reiterating the stock as an overweight rating guy think it was a super micro move if you throw that one up but you know we've talked about this I think Carter talked about it last week you're in this formation in Nvidia it's going to break one way or the other today it shows signs of breaking to the upside but I still think this pennant is intact the June 20th level the formation that Tim sort of alluded to I think the stock closed above 140 that day and reversed that's interesting it's not been broached yet so the question is which way does it break is it going to break to the upside out of this pennant or the downside today's action suggest the upside we'll see though it's not there yet Mel and in the case of Nvidia versus an apple I I think you obviously have two stocks where I I would stay with Carter and I just don't think the expectations in apple are that great Invidia we know they're great and and so now we've dealt with some production issues we've had the company come back and pretty much reassure fourth quarter demand they they're saying is going to be extremely strong and I I get back to the stock and I get back to even some of the market dynamics that have made Nvidia now performer in addition to those ones that are obviously Nvidia specific I I think the macro supports Nvidia I think it supports the names where you have growth uh and I think the market is less worried about that multiple here for the humor inclined navigating these dizzyingly high stock valuations can feel like the roller coaster at your local amusement park only your seat here is lined with silicon and the thrill isn't just gravity defying drops but soaring valuation peaks with a price to earnings ratio of 58 at the current cut of analysis and taking some flak for it Nvidia can still justify it consider its PEG ratio dipping below 0.14 marking it undervalued relative to its potential growth understatement of the year not bad for a semiconductor company that used to Simply power graphics cards no one can talk about Nvidia without mentioning apple and its strategic pivots while nvidia's chips power up AI Apple isn't standing still integrating chat GPT into its Siri assistant carving strides into AI territory meanwhile China remains a tough market for Apple with tepid iPhone sales contrasted by a surge from Huawei yet even amidst these shifting tectonic plates nvidia's narrative keeps captivating audiences an astounding 740 jump in stock inflating its market value by a whopping $3.1 trillion says it all but as Rick meckler of Cherry Lane Investments LLC pondered the question is whether the revenue stream will last for a long time and will be driven by the emotion of investors rather than by any ability to prove or disprove the thesis that AI is overdone looking to the Future the conversations are vibrant anticipating Invidia third quarter earnings analysts are all eyes and ears why because an expected 82% Revenue growth is not something you brush aside casually for context this isn't just beating a drum loudly it's orchestrating a symphony in a dense competitive market with Nvidia leading the buclear is a wonderful Way Forward as one of the sources of energy one of the sources of sustainable able energy it won't be the only one we're going to need uh energy from all sources and balance the the uh uh the availability and the cost of energy um as well as the sustainability over time um export controls are a big topic as we go into the November election particularly when it comes to competition with China is NVIDIA on track to make a China safe blackw chip uh we haven't announced our future products yet uh but the first first thing we have to do is comply with whatever policies and regulations that are uh being imposed uh supported uh F fully and and um uh meanwhile do our do the best we can to compete in the markets that we serve we have a lot of customers there that depend on us and we'll do our best to support them do you think the US should back off on China train trade STS um do you think the restrictions are effective well we have to defer uh all of the all of the uh policy making to uh the administration the uh they understand uh that um The Balancing National Security uh versus the prosperity of uh American Technology all over the world we're exporting exporting American technology which is really terrific for the United States that the world is built on nid on American Standards uh Nvidia is a is an American company and and um our government and the administration would love to see us succeed and so finding the right balance is is very difficult to do and but they're doing a wonderful job I'm curious have you been in touch with either of the campaigns to you know counsel them on this technology uh no our my focus is to build our company and and uh I trust that they're going to do the best thing for our country thank you great thanks so much appreciate it the compelling case for NVIDIA is difficult to ignore while the stock presently pulses with exuberance and basks in its near Mythic market cap it also stands as a beacon for potential heightened returns Wall Street May throw shade with a trailing PE ratio critique but nvidia's foresight in AI unlike other contenders has yet to stumble NextGen Blackwell processors and foreseeable increases in AI chip demand are likely to push this semiconductor stall to even mightier Financial Heights considering the Quicksilver pace of AI technology adoption and nvidia's Undisputed role in it the scenario plays out promisingly yes Nvidia dazzles today but it is its future trajectory that entices investors still the market takes no prisoners and the battle for the top market cap Position will not easily retire to comfort the numbers inidia posted in the previous quarter an astonishing Revenue Spike of 122% paired with a 168% leap in earnings per share are tiles on a walkway they must continue laying with Precision so where does that leave aspiring investors with a question that demands reflection are you ready to stake a claim in nvidia's Journey because as AI continues to weave into every fabric of industry and daily life Nvidia stands as a central figure unyielding and full of promis
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