저자: TomLee및게스트 · 외국인
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엔비디아는 AI 수요 폭발과 Blackwell 출시로 성장 지속 전망이지만, 5년 2,700% 상승 등 기대치가 이미 높아 추가 상승 여력은 제한적이라는 신중론도 제기됨. 3분기 실적(11/20) 전 모멘텀과 시즌널리티로 단기 상승 가능성이 언급됨. 반도체 섹터는 9월 이후 S&P 대비 약 7% 초과수익. 메가캡 실적 기대와 AI 투자 지속이 핵심 변수.
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bu so we'll leave it there in the world of stock market Marvels there's a giant Making Waves so big it's almost impossible to ignore buckle up folks because it is none other than Nvidia the Titan of the AI industry capturing headlines with jaw-dropping performance figures over the past 5 years nvidia's stock has skyrocketed by an astonishing 2,700 positioning itself as the lead in the rapidly expanding artificial intelligence market and it's not just sheer numbers causing a stir CEO Jensen hang has dubbed Nvidia the on-ramp to the AI Universe indicating the company's pivotal role in shaping the future but with their upcoming earnings report on November 20th can Nvidia continue this meteoric rise or are investors in for a surprise let's delve into the numbers the expectations and the hype surrounding Nvidia as it charts a course through the stock market Stratosphere welcome back everyone to invest stracy it's a top two position I think for you we're going to have to wait until November 20th for earnings so we got a minute to wait there um what's your read here what's your take on on Brinn buying more up here well I always Roe for Brinn but I would just say we know AI spending has been and should continue to be explosive question is how much is already baked into the expectations for the stock you're talking about a company that out of the last 5 years has had a triple digit return uh stock return in four of those five years you're basically talking about a company that uh over the last year has grown its earnings per share by 45% it's grown its sales by 195% and investors have gotten accustomed to that kind of eye bulging eye popping growth and it's just hard for me to understand where that's going to come from we already have the expectations based on all of the other mag seven names and the hyperscalers that are going to be doing this sort of investing we know that we also know that there's been a global push for companies uh to experiment with AI incorporate AI Etc so who who's left is is Jupiter and Mars going to start contributing here to the forward guidance so that's the that's the risk I don't necessarily think that that it has to be feast or famine there's a universe in which Nvidia reports great numbers the stock doesn't rally but doesn't get killed either it's just a a massive company with already embedded huge expectations and the gains of the past are unlikely to be repeated from here doesn't mean there's not another 10% or another 15% I just think it gets harder from these levels and I'm saying this as a long so in the at the heart of the buzz surrounding nvidia's recent performance is the company's dominance in the AI chip Market with a commanding 80% market share it's no surprise that analysts and investors are keeping a close watch on this stock now if you're wondering how Nvidia managed to leave such a significant Mark think of it as owning the most popular pizza joint in town everyone wants a slice from Tech behemoths like Amazon web services and Google to Innovative startups eager for a taste of that AI capability CEO Jensen hang speaking on the brand new bg2 podcast highlighted nvidia's strategy and growth prospects likening the company to the essential Gateway for all things AI investors are currently on tentor hooks eagerly awaiting nvidia's thirdd quarter earnings report historically nvidia's post-report stock movements have uplifted investors Spirits showing gains in six of the past eight quarters sometimes sparking rallies that would make a roller coaster jealous but of course the stock market has its own way of delivering surprises more unexpected than a hat trick on the roulette table let's face it if stock market investing is akin to a game of chess nvidia's consistency is like an undefeated Grandmaster plotting a winning strategy a feat characterized by its robust double-digit Revenue growth even as triple- digigit earnings growth became increasingly challenging to maintain given their burgeoning revenue base yet it's not just past achievements fueling nvidia's current Allure the upcoming launch of the Blackwell architecture promises performance unparalleled in the industry's history setting the stage for NVIDIA to further cement its leadership and power its growth forward demand for these nextg processors is so fervent that company insiders say it surpasses Supply the buzz is real enough to score its own Standing Ovati until i you're big in the name that's that's why I went to you next um but W you're in the name um is there more uh near-term risk in this name now um given the run that it's had as I as I said um the timing of Bren buying it here just give me the way that you would observe you know doing this now well just mathematically when you're coming up to an event Catalyst for the upside or downside given the performance you cited there is more risk but that's short-term risk and Bren buying it now I'm sure that regardless of what happens this quarter if you look out a few months she's going to be happy she did so it's always difficult to pick the timing on buying a name uh or adding to it and she is adding to it Haven been there for a long time so clearly right now they are in The Sweet Spot and clearly they can't meet the demand that they're seeing from customers and want to be customers so it's a great thing to do and as I mentioned I think a few weeks ago the fact that Jensen Wong has been so visible and talking about demand he's got to deliver and him not be anything but a foolish person M I believe he knows it's going to be a great P now what the whisper numbers get to be when numbers move like this who knows but who cares in makes the point too that I mean the factor of momentum is a very very powerful it's a very powerful thing but I but I'd also say that Taiwan semi Taiwan semi is the direct perhaps the most direct beneficiary of the strength in Nvidia and they announced on their Phoenix fab right that yields are 4% better than their Taiwan Fab so that is powerful that stocks had a good move but I still think it's going to have great move over the fouryear time period if you look out 23 to 26 forward earnings they'll have double revenues right they'll have doubled earnings I mean that's tremendous performance not quite in video likee but I also think it's much more sustainable why why is there a willingness Jim to get into a name even after a run like this because when you look at as we get ready for Mega cap earnings next week the bulk of earnings growth in Q3 is going to come from Tech and Comm Services um now the mega caps need to deliver the bar is high but when you look at the earnings growth expectations as I say Tech and Comm services are expected to lead the way Tech up 15.2% earnings growth in Q3 com Services up 13.5 in Q3 you take those out and where do you get earnings growth out of the rest of the S&P 500 down 0.2 so this is the show it will continue to be the show and there is no trepidation from Brin buying a name like Nvidia of 3 weeks or so 3 four weeks ahead of its number just on the Nvidia before we get to the earnings um you covered the momentum Josh and Brinn covered the fundamentals there's one other aspect that I think we need to cover which is the seasonality when you have this big a year uh you know anyone who's behind their Benchmark is going to play panic time to catch up and how do you do that you throw money at the winners like Nvidia it is likely in the next couple of months to go higher along with the market because that's the easiest way for professional money managers who are behind to Simply catch up and also by the way a retail investor isn't want to going to want to sell this I advise retail investors I wouldn't tell them to take capital gains right now now let's sprinkle in some Joy a quick chuckle for Market enthusiasts why did the Nvidia chip attend therapy because it couldn't keep up with its processing power Jokes Aside nvidia's Financial minations are anything but overwhelmed the company's gross margins reside comfortably above an impressive 70% fortifying investors confidence in their profitability Pros supporting these gusts of optimism is data from formidable sources like Bank of America which recently escalated nvidia's price Target to $190 this forecast mirrors nvidia's ability to tap into an expanding $400 billion AI chip market and demonstrates the company's potential in securing deals with Cloud luminaries like Microsoft meta and xai looking forward analysts predict that nvidia's fruitful Endeavors might translate into a whopping $84 billion in Revenue by fiscal 2025 from their AI operations underscoring monstrous growth and laying the foundation for potentially capturing a substantial segment of the AI accelerator Market projected to hit $280 billion by 2027 one thing's for sure even as Nvidia gears itself for Skyhigh aspirations The Horizon remains both dazzling and promising possibly justifying the increasingly enthusiastic investor interest that Nvidia continues to commtart off with nvidia's record run this week the AI darling stock ending the day just short of all-time highs up more than 16% this month the chipmaker are also briefly topping Apple in market cap today the world's two most valuable companies neck and neck ahead of ahead of a big wheek for the tech trade most of the mag 7 stocks gearing up to deliver results alphabet Microsoft meta Amazon and apple all on Deck so will next week be the Moment of Truth for big Tech and the AI trade can the reports feel even more upside ahead and I guess people will say you know what are they going to spend and is it going to prove that nvidia's market cap nvidia's PE is worth it Tim well that that is the question and I think we've talked about that a a lighter capex load might actually be something to Rally the mega caps on because I just think at times especially we we know with meta that the year of efficiency led to a lot of gains people have been conf concerned I think with with with Google who's going to report on Tuesday I mean there's a dynamic here that I think um there is some need to see some follow through here um I think ultimately as we go into this period if you look at the NASDAQ 100 or the triple q's and the mag 7 obviously outside of Tes TLA which has been on a tear um have have not made new highs going all the way back to July whereas semis um have retaken some leadership if you look at that period from September 9th or there's been a couple different periods I think the market has used to both rotate uh out of growth back into value and this and that but from September 9th or shortly after we got that payroll number uh and some reaffirmation of of the consumer and the economy um you actually saw the growth come back in the semiconductors and that leadership they've outperformed the S&P by almost you know 7% just since September 7th and will they make new highs we haven't made new highs on semis also since July but I I get the sense that's where we are and I I think everything we're going to hear from the hyperscalers is that this is a very important part of again that prisoners dilemma they got to be there yeah b as Nvidia prepares to reveal their third quarter earnings the stage is set for potentially Monumental movements within their stock market trajectory with eyes wide open investors assess the fine print in the demand for nvidia's Blackwell architecture against an impressive backdrop of historical gains and analyst forecasts the current Share value hints at room for further growth particularly with Nvidia being well positioned at the epicenter of the AI explosion though the market can be as unpredictable as a Cat on a Hot Tin Roof all indicators Point toward nvidia's capacity for sustained progress the company's existing dominance is fueled by Innovation unprecedented demand and an anticipation of what's to come forward-looking statements about major Revenue influx has hinted optimism not just for immediate returns post earnings but a confidence in nvidia's ability to navigate future market trends with Flare should you're considering a fora into the AI stock realm embracing Nvidia might just be an opportunity it's a rare mix of high-tech and resilience trading at an attractive forward earnings multiple but enough guitar solos it's time we heard from you what's your take on nvidia's trajectory are you on the brink of adding this Tech innovator to your Investment Portfolio or do you see competition on the horizon let's discus video
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