저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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수퍼마이크로 특별위원회 조사 완료 및 회계 관련 혐의 미확인 발표로 주가 반등 흐름. 엔비디아는 CES 2025 기조연설 기대감, 증권사 목표가 상향(175달러), 3분기 매출 351억달러(전년比 94%↑), 2025년 매출 50% 성장 전망 등으로 긍정적 평가. 다만 자막상 2024년 12월 영상 제목의 '200% 급등' 문구는 증권사 시각을 인용한 것으로 보임.
다듬은 글
David, we have news this morning for Super Micro, which has been a company that is directly involved with Nvidia. They don't seem to know how fast things are going. Everything is just moving so quickly and their companies. Super Micro, by the way, the CFO is out and that's very positive. Yes. Uh we should mention Super Micro was also completed that review by an independent special committee.
Interestingly, uh aided by the forensic accounting firm, Secretariat Advisors. Who knew that we'd be talking about the great horse and there it would be once again uh they better be really great because when you do one of those independent they don't like no evidence of misconduct on the part of management or the board of directors and that the audit committee acted independently.
No restatement of reported financials expected. Those are the headlines from this release from Super Micro that is out just a few moments ago. Um there's a lot more here guys that we need to go through in terms of specifics that they address. Of course, much of this, not all of it, began when uh their longtime accountant Ernston Young resigned and said they couldn't support the financials as they were reported at the time.
Stock plummeted. Greenberg points out the special committee is one person. Yeah, I was going to say that the farce of the special committee is what you got to focus on. Now, having unfortunately been involved in some of these situations with the special committee, government does not like selfexoneration.
You know, the SEC will call you and say, "Oh, really? Really? Your special committee? Are they made up of hacks? Are they made up of or they might just send a release out which just says there is no special committee because the government does not like self-exoneration. Government likes to investigate itself.
They like a little secretariat. Get inside here. They do. They do. No, I think this is quite a day because you're going to see winners win. What a cliche. Winners win. But Nvidia Nvidia is down two bucks this morning on story out of commerce that somehow they were going to be involved. And they do have good China business of a kind of a you know, you put a governor on a electric bike, you can't go fast.
They have a governor on the latest Nvidia chip and they were selling that well in uh China. So maybe that somewhat. But the fact is is that you just keep distancing yourself from the crowd if you're Nvidia. And I still think and you're going to you're going to have Ben Reges on this morning, right? Yes.
I think he's going to speak very positively about Nvidia. He has been the other guy. What what's so funny? It is funny to your guys point about special micro when when you read about a special committee typically you think a committee is people but in this case it's Susie Gerardano how about AI was there was she was assisted by AI but the special committee is comprised of Susie Gerardano she's an independent member of the board of directors of super micro an experienced attorney she joined the board in August this last August uh to lead the special committee's efforts to review the matters outlined above perfect independent from any existing directors.
So yes, the special committee was one person. Um that said, again, I would refer people to a press release I'm still going through and I'm sure others are. They do note lapses including ensuring guardrails were always in place and observed because company's chief financial officer primary responsibility process of rehiring certain employees.
He had pro responsibility for uh process lapses. Guys, it goes on from there. I'm not going to go through it all right now, but you can see the rebound that's taking place. Super micro shares. By the way, this been going on for some time after the plummet that took place when Ernston Young said, "We're out of here." Brace yourselves, investors and tech enthusiasts alike, for an electrifying piece of news that could send ripples through the entire stock market.
At the center of all the buzz is none other than Nvidia Corp., similar to a magician pulling rabbits out of hats, Nvidia is once again poised to captivate the market with a potentially seismic announcement. Rumors are swirling around CEO Jensen Huang's upcoming keynote address, promising a spellbinding glimpse into the future of AI and GPU technology.
What exactly will he unveil? That remains a closely guarded secret, fueling a sense of anticipation and excitement reminiscent of a cliffhanger in a best-selling novel. The whispers surrounding this event have reached a fever pitch with speculations as varied as the advancements in AI, applications to groundbreaking improvements in their processing capabilities.
Major players like City have positioned Nvidia on their positive catalyst watch, forecasting an impressive surge in stock value. This isn't just any rise in stock price. It's poised to climb by an impressive 200%. As the day of the announcement draws closer, the tension is palpable with the potential of shifting paradigms in tech innovation and redefining market dynamics.
Welcome back everyone to Investocracy. Well, I mean there's also been a the the interlocking people on this board and relatives on the board and all the deals that have been made are just ridiculous. And I think that this is not necessarily going to be the end of the situation. I think that there's a needs a further house cleaning.
Uh look, I'm not saying there's going to be a special committee here, but Ernston Young resigned. That's not been cured. I mean, they brought in they did bring in another, you know, they brought in with BDOM, but I I think that it's a longer term thing. It's like it's not done, right? um special committee as in Susie Gerardano uh did not see any evidence suggesting anyone at the company tried to circumvent export control regulations or restrictions which of course never end I mean that was like aware that the issue might be diverted to a prohibited end user location that's one again one part uh from here as well uh they are getting a new CFO as we said appointing a chief accounting officer appointed chief compliance officer appointing a general counsel expanding the legal department these are all measur was recommended by the special committee.
Well, that's positive. Or I should say Susie Gyroano. The special commit. What do you call a committee one person? Committee of one. Thank you. We've seen that's a CBS show along with fire country. Committee of one. Do you see that? Committee of one. The man go. You're holding a meeting of the special committee.
You go into a special chamber. That's track you want. Although do you have to do it in a special location as a special committee and you talk to yourself during this? Well, I'm telling you and you say Susie what do you think about this right? Yeah. Robust discussion. Yeah. Well, Agentics was they have to bring Agentics.
Agent Gentics is neutral. The air around Nvidia is undeniably buzzing and for good reason. News has it that the chip giant is gearing up for CES 2025 and anticipation couldn't be higher. As some analysts put it, Jensen Huang's keynote is the kind of event that has investors marking their calendars and tech enthusiasts holding their breath.
This isn't merely another industry event. It's shaping up to be a landmark in technological exposition. Of course, the rumor mill is in overdrive, feeding on speculations that range from nextg GPU releases to cutting edge AIdriven robotic solutions aimed at revolutionizing sectors like warehouses and manufacturing.
If you're betting on gaming GPUs, this entire scenario might feel like someone just unlocked a cheat code. However, instead of unlocking extra lives, they're unlocking a treasure trove of opportunities in AI robotics. City, one of the major players keeping a keen eye on Nvidia, has recently adjusted their predictions, and it's all upward.
. The internet was decentralized. It was open. There were lots of players. Prices were coming down. Well, what we have in this AI revolution is there are a few winners, right? You end up with closed systems. It's you got uh situations where everything's costing more and more importantly uh this is going to be one of those situations where you don't have the open systems that are needed.
So, we need a lot more competition in AI and hopefully that's going to change with, you know, you saw the investment this morning, uh, where, you know, Jeff Bezos is like backing the chip manufacturers, you know, in Korea to actually compete against, uh, Nvidia. You're going to see more and more of the companies, uh, that are buying lots of chips from Nvidia try to invest in alternatives because they don't want one winner or winner takes all market in terms of their supplier base either.
Does that tick off Nvidia and do they then as a result result stop giving as many chips to those companies that are now looking for you know other competitors to go along the way because those big buyers have been the ones who have been able to really shepherd a lot of the chips that are coming out.
They are able to pay the big bucks right now. What what does that mean? No, Becky, that's a great question. And I think the order books are out for the next 18 to 24 months. So it's about a 2-year buffer Nvidia has. But there's also this shift, right? These companies aren't going to keep buying those data center chips at that rate.
Uh they're going to need other alternatives. And what you're going to see is, you know, the shift to sovereign AI. Countries that actually have to deliver AI at scale to their citizens because this isn't something that any country can just pick up and do. Uh and smaller countries and smaller companies that don't have that capital investment are going to have to like build up uh that consolidated purchase towards AI capabilities.
And then after that, we'll have to see what happens. But that's like 48 months out in terms of any projections. With a buy rating firmly in place, analysts are eager to highlight the potential for Nvidia's profit margins to make a triumphant comeback as early as the April quarter. Imagine a Phoenix rising, only this time, it's armed with GPUs instead of feathers.
They've also increased their target price from $170 to $175 following a remarkable third quarter earnings release where Nvidia not only met but exceeded expectations. An astounding 94% increase in revenue year-over-year totaling a staggering $ 35.1 billion and surpassing Wall Street's estimates has cemented Nvidia's reputation as a trailblazer.
With such outstanding performance metrics, Nvidia isn't merely meeting benchmarks. They're setting new industry standards and inspiring others to follow suit. But that's not all. For those with an ear to the financial ground, Whisper suggests that CES 2025 might offer more than just an address in AI robotics.
Nvidia could potentially unveil updates about its RTX 50 series desktop GPUs based on the dazzling Blackwell architecture. This could send tech lovers and gamers into a frenzy akin to a kid in a candy store. With GPUs sweet enough to cause the market's appetite to skyrocket, it's no joke. Nvidia's stock has already surged 176% year-to date.
And if the buzz about CES holds any truth, this could just be the beginning. Should these projections align with reality, we're likely on the brink of a technological evolution that will secure Nvidia's dominance in the sphere of high performance computing for gen you have the smartest people in the world working on this problem and they're going to find their way through it and they're finding their way through things.
There there was other bottlenecks a few months ago, a few months ago. These are really smart folks that are working their way through things. But I think the the positive surprise here is data is the new is the new gold is the new oil it as and it's really coming into its own. We are creating data with AI.
We're creating synthetic data. We're creating data from scratch and these guys are figuring out how to feed that into models. Also uh you know you have Elon Musk taking more and more video uh revolutionizing self-driving. I think they've made a lot of advances through video and Jim's talked a lot about that, but that's really just taken hold.
I I think we'll find our way through this and the data center is the new manufacturing hub, so to speak, for AI as as Jensen said during the conference call. Let's get let's get back to Nvidia just from your projections. I mean, what are what are your anticipations in terms of next year's revenues, the growth rate, and therefore back into a a multiple for me as to why you have a a where your price target is?
I next year I have revenues growing 50% and I think it's conservative and then the next year I'm at 22%. I who knows if it that 22 sounds pretty light considering Jensen's track record. Our target is only 35 times our 27 estimate which is really calendar 26. So it's a PE to growth that's still very appetizing right now for this stock.
Of course, you know, on any given day, the stock can go down, but I think given the growth that's out there for this company and given it's a systems company, sort of like Apple is for the consumer, that's what this is for the enterprise. It's going to be bigger than people think still with more profits as a percent of the total industry than people think still and last longer.
just, you know, from my experience, the vertically integrated companies that do it all, that tend to hit it right, tend to go on longer than people think. I I'm interested when you're talking about your revenue projections at 50% and then at 22% and how Nvidia executives are sort of walking this walk carefully, talking about growth, but you're probably not going to see 50% forever and still keep people excited.
I mean, can they can they walk this carefully? Well, what what needs to happen at some point here is this is a cash gusher, too. And Nvidia wants to go, we're a growth company, but at some point they have to buy back more stock because there's simply nothing they can do with it. Um the government probably can't let them buy anybody even close to, you know, you know, uh a trillion, of course.
So, they're going to have to do tuckin acquisitions and they're going to have to give stock back. I think they are going to go through just like Apple did that metamorphosis of more mature, hey, we have more recurring revenue. That's why they're building a software business. That's why they're going to continue to do that.
And I think that they realize that. But right now, they're in growth mode and it's go go go. But I think, you know, let's put some trust in Jensen and Colette that they know they have to build up those recurring revenue streams and return more cash to shareholders when appropriate. And those days are coming and we'll see how they they do.
But I have confidence that this is a systems company which makes it a little different than just a chip company who's running and gunning um like some of their peers. You you even wrote you compared it to iPhone 6 era for Apple which I'm trying to think is that about the time services got taken seriously over there.
Well, you know, iPhone 6 was this huge uh big screen transition and then Luca Maestry uh along with the CFO Yeah. Then the CFO really did a great job of saying, "Hey guys, this base we just did is we just built is going to have all this recurring revenue. TR, you know, here's what it is. More disclosures around it more." Now, they're not ready yet in Nvidia, but they said last night that 2 billion in software revenue as we exit the year.
Within a year or two, that number is going to be way more significant, way more tracked. But also, there's DGX cloud. There's other things they're driving. They're driving NIMS. they're they're enabling the market and um these kind of things are going to get more important as we go throughout and uh and I think a lot of companies especially enterprises are not going to be able to live without these products as they adopt AI as the dust settles on this whirlwind of speculation and expectation one thing is clear Nvidia stands at the precipice of a new dawn in tech innovation with a consensus price target not far shy of its current performance the prospect for these stocks with the prediction of some soaring to $220 is nothing short of contagious.
As investors weigh in, the collective sentiment leans towards a promising uptick. A reflection not only of Nvidia's current prowess, but of its future potential. Nvidia's secret sauce lies in its ability to blend continued innovative breakthroughs with robust financial fundamentals, creating waves of confidence across markets globally.
A strong history of stellar financial performance gives Nvidia more than a leg to stand on. It's poised to sprint forward. Are you ready to catch this wave? The company's noteworthy stature and the potential for upcoming advancements in AI and GPU technology make it more than just a stock. It's a conversation starter.
Whether you're an investor with a keen eye on futures, a tech enthusiast thrilled by the whispers of what could be, or just someone who recognizes the power of technology to reshape the future, Nvidia serves as a focal point of interest. So, what do you think? With this myriad of speculation and seemingly unstoppable growth trajectory of Nvidia, is it time to make that investment leap?
Let us know where you stand on Nvidia's horizon of possibilities. As we look to the future, we may very well be standing on the brink of a transformation that could redefine technological landscapes worldwid.
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