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마이크로소프트·빅테크 반독점 규제 우려는 과장이며 FTC 체제 변화(Khan 퇴임 예상)로 빅테크에 우호적. AI 랠리는 2025~2026년까지 지속 전망. 테슬라는 자율주행 가치 1조달러 이상이며 과소평가, 12~18개월 내 2배 가능하다고 주장. 엔비디아 PEG 1.6 대비 테슬라 3.2로 밸류에이션 부담 언급 및 Gary Black 분석 인용. 머스크 칩 배분 논란 및 전기차 세액공제 폐지 시 테슬라에 유리하다고 해석.
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joining us now WB Bush Security's head of Technology research Dan IES Dan it's great to have you here on set great to be here there's never a dir of information in the tech sector for us to talk about but I do want to start with the Microsoft piece of this um because we always talk about whether the market feels like this is 1999 poised for a 2000 and here we are talking about Microsoft up for regulatory review that sure feels like 99 200000 look if Khan was staying that would be a different situation I think the view of us and the view of many on the street is that K's days the FTC are numbered I think you ultimately get a more we'll call even killed business friendly sort of chair of the FTC in there and and we just think Bark's worse than a bite when it comes to Microsoft Microsoft went through that battle in the 90s versus you know doj and US Government ultimately wanted look you're definitely seeing the strong get stronger in terms of big tech and as much as this is really going to be a UFC battle that continues to really play out between big Tech but I just think when it's all said and done the the noise is going to be more than the reality not just to Microsoft but I think even when it comes to Google and others how much is going to hinge though on the Trump Administration the picks for doj antitrust and FTC because there are a number of names floated for each of those positions and not all of them are I would say rah rah let Tech go wild some of them are much more focused on antitrust and a s I'll call it maybe potentially a similar approach to what we've seen in the last couple of years yeah I think on DJ you definitely get someone probably in between I mean look Vance is obviously antiac so you're going to definitely have someone that's that's a little on the aggressive side toward Tech but I think the big issue is on FTC because KH for big Tech it has been a nightmare in terms of KH the FTC her being gone which we believe is ultimately will be the the next step when it comes to January that's bullish for Tech I think look a big reason when Trump came in when you think about KH out the FTC that's bullish or big Tech I think less regulations and then who's at the table right next to Trump it's musk and I think that's going to also play a big role unofficially in terms of some of these picks and where this all goes but I continue to think in terms of this AI Revolution it is 10: p.m.
at that party that goes to 4:00 a.m. and I don't see any of these appointments that's changing that party or that party closes early I think we have a tech Market that goes well into 2025 2026 and I think a lot of this sort of noise that we see here more opportunities to own these games rather than time to get nervous do you buy Tesla here then given the rally we've seen the torrid rally we've seen this month I think get the popcorn out because I believe Tesla is a stock that could ultimately double from here over the next 18 month it's been obviously parabolic move but as me and you have talk about autonomous itself we think is worth a trillion dollars so when you think today I view Tesla is the most undervalued AI name in the market it is not ridiculous it might almost be conservative to think could this be a $5 $600 stock as the autonomous ultimately plays out I think the margin story is definitely stabilized here and I think investors look the haters continue to hate they hate it at $50 they'll hate it here but I think we sit here and this will be sort of a golden star you know in terms of when you look at the market in 2025 in terms of what we see for Tesla I believe 2 trillion on the horizon in the thring world of the stock market where numbers often speak louder than words a recent analysis has become the Talk of the Town prominent investment analyst Gary black of the future fund LLC has set the financial World a buzz with his stirring comparison of two industry Titans Tesla Inc and Nvidia Corp these companies while both leaders in their respective Fields have carved out distinct niches and amassed a legion of followers among investors each offering a unique value proposition to the market Tesla renowned for its Electric vehicles and pioneering strides in sustainable energy continuously captures the imagination of those looking toward a green future meanwhile Nvidia stands as a Cornerstone of technological advancement with its cuttingedge Graphics processing units driving innovation in artificial intelligence and gaming alike yet Black's insights reveal a stark contrast in their earnings trajectories and valuation metrics which might just as we navigate through this analysis it becomes evident that understanding these nuances could redefine where smart money should be heading welcome back everyone to invest ocracy welcome back amid constant criticism and debate over his leadership Elon Musk stands by the claim that he can turn Tesla into an AI leader but new documents reveal he asked Nvidia to prioritize Chipman chip shipments tox not Tesla musk confirming cnbc's reports explaining the chips would have been backed log in the Tesla Factory cbc.com Laura kadne is here to discuss what she's learned uh Laura thanks for joining us so just take us back to the start here what what exactly happened what did musk do so in December 2023 Elon Musk ordered Nvidia to ship 12,000 of these very coveted AI chips uh h100 gpus from Nvidia to X instead of to Tesla when they had been reserved for Tesla and then in exchange Tesla would get you know the next shipments of of chips in uh January and June so he effectively delayed Tesla's being able to continue building out Data Center and AI infrastructure by 5 six months so who paid for the chips Tesla or or X and xai there's still a lot to be reported out here uh ostensively Tesla would have paid for Tesla's chips and X would have paid for X's chips but maybe Elon mus can answer that for us so we don't know whether Tesla paid for chips that ultimately went to another entity we don't know that yet uh but musk just stepped in big-footed the process and said hey Tesla's not ready to use use these chips not able to put them to work but X and xai are so send the chips there instead is that the is that the nub of it he's saying now that Tesla wasn't ready for them this begs a question as to why excorp had the resources to you know get to work standing up a brand new data center but Tesla who's been talking about you know uh developing Robo taxis very sophisticated computer vision and AI uh wouldn't prioritize that and wasn't ready you know these delays weren't previously discussed in detail with shareholders in the financial Arena where predictions can be as volatile as the market itself Gary black stands out as a beacon of clarity and pragmatism his recent comparison of Tesla Inc and Nvidia Corp wields a scalpel to the myths and lays bare the numbers that matter most their respective price to earnings growth Peg ratios Nvidia which has become the apple of wall Street's eye trades at a PEG ratio of 1.6 times a compelling figure for potential investors looking for growth at a reasonable price Tesla's 3.2 time Peg ratio tells a different story reflecting the premium that investors are expecting to pay for its anticipated future growth this illustrates a fundamental aspect of investor sentiment the willingness to pay a premium for future possibilities Tesla's narrative deeply intertwined with Innovative visions of autonomous driving and sustainable energy contribute significantly to its higher valuation perception the numbers paint an unmistakable picture of the current market sentiment according to Black despite Tesla's impressive 32 2% long-term earnings growth projection it's the valuation that investors must watch closely Tesla's price to earnings ratio for the calendar year 2025 sits at a hefty 102 times placing it higher up the valuation Spectrum compared to nvidia's more modest 32 times this positions Nvidia as a more grounded investment possibly suggesting a steadier climb in stock value as opposed to Tesla's more volit Peak was talking to a couple people in the industry whom I I idolized last night and goat kept coming up goat kept coming up referring to Jensen W great greatest of all time and there there are some people are very cheery about knowing him because we know that he's ethereal we know that he's not a bus and we know that he carries himself like a gentleman and it's ethereal do you do you think he's a a bigger Visionary than Elon Musk yes you didn't hesitate yes and I tell you why because I think in the end in the end uh I do believe that those are that's technology and wheels and I think that musk can see around the corner but I think that Jensen is thinking about a legacy of changing the entire Paradigm about the way the world is is Jensen is creating single-handedly an industrial revolution and musk is creating single-handedly a way to be able to deliver things and those are both brilliant things without a doubt but to create an industrial revolution yourself to create the loom to create the train to create the steamboat who does he s do do do Lisa Sue and ginger have any part of that or is this completely a solo job no Lisa would Lisa's watching right now saying Jim why aren't you give me my du my current chips are equal to the h100 it's not it's not Superior uh Pats as nice as ever Black's analysis doesn't stop at surface numbers it digs Into the Heart of Strategic investment reasoning for those investors who prioritize buying low and selling High Nvidia seems to be the horse to bet on in this race of Market Titans in a wide ranging strategic context where valuation meets potential upside Nvidia offers a compelling intersection the company is at the Forefront of the AI Revolution and cloud computing sect poised for exponential growth in the coming years in a riveting turn of events that underscores Black's insightful analysis we see data not only backing his comparisons but elevating The Narrative to a broader strategy for investors for instance the future fund active ETF has delivered a striking 28.3% year-to-date return handsomely outpacing other indices like the spyer S and p500 ETF trust illustrating the fund's ability to capture Market opportunities with Precision with Tesla showing a 34% % gain and Nvidia soaring by a formidable 18.96% according to benzinga Pro the evidence speaks volumes about the dynamic play between growth and valuation investors tuned into Black's analysis can't ignore the robust strides Nvidia is making this significant leap accentuates nvidia's momentum within critical sectors driving our digital age signaling the company's pivotal role in sustaining technological growth even if Tesla's engine is roaring at a different pace The Savvy investor know where to look for mileage on a journey toward maximizing returns thus the stage is set for Discerning investors to weigh the balance between futuristic ambition and achievable prospects guiding their strategies towards markets that resonate with their risk appetitean I think musk goes to a different set of rules and I think as it all plays out as we're seeing this is going to it could have some bumps in the road but I don't see how this is all going to change other words I think autonomous is going to get significantly FASTT tracked the AI piece is going to get FASTT tracked and that's bullet look the poster trial who's going to benefit here is going to be is going to be musk and Tesla what about um the angle uh from Tesla with the credits one thing I I've heard is that if they remove credits then the Lesser peers uh struggle more and that I mean that one seems like there's a few leaps logic there well removing the the credits is negative for the EV industry negative for Detroit 313 ARA could bullish for Tesla because they have the scale and scope that's unmatched they make profits on a $35,000 car $10,000 you look at the the tax credits would essenti give an even playing field to give affordable cars to some of these new entrance that's out yeah that's bullish for Tesla okay so you're saying basically like a a rivan I don't know the name names or I mean like some the companies that are losing a ton on their vehicles basically will have to like cease operations but also rivan's a high-end consumer they're not focused on tax credits like we're talking about you're talk vehicles in the 35 40,000 range look at gm4 GMS 10 12 Vehicles come out you take the you take the credit out it's a game changer and guess what musk musk is almost like wasn't invited to the party for eight years that being the White House party it's all about Detroit bar GM totally Biden UAW now all of a sudden they come to his house and he's sitting there in Mara Lago that's not a good situation for uh for GM as the curtain falls on this gripping Market Tale one thing is clear the balance of power in stock narratives is continuously shifting inviting both caution and curiosity among investors Gary Black's insightful analysis urges investors to pay heed to valuation metrics that truly matter making a persuasive case for NVIDIA as an enticing investment opportunity within today's volatile and everchanging markets with its favorable PEG ratio and resounding market performance Nvidia shines brightly on the investment Horizon a beacon for those seeking stability coupled with growth conversely Tesla's fireworks and long-term growth continue to draw their gaze demanding attention from investors who are willing to embrace risk for potential rewards for potential investors pondering the trajectory of nvidia's stock the predictions remain decidedly optimistic analysts foresee continued Vigor in its Market course underscored by sustainable and robust earnings growth rates that hint at promising prospects this forward-looking optimism posits Nvidia not merely as a current performer but as a continual innovator set to influence future technological dominances meanwhile Tesla's commitment to trailblazing Energy Solutions remains a Fascination for those willing to stake premium on Avant guard technolog
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