저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 2024년 연말 증시가 강세로 마무리되고 2025년에도 상승 흐름이 이어질 것으로 전망. 연준 금리인하 기대, 트럼프 행정부의 시장 친화 정책(트럼프 풋)을 근거로 제시. S&P500은 상반기 7,000 가능, 연간 예상치 6,600, 2025년 중 6,700 이상 가능성 언급. 소형주·비트코인·지역은행·금융주에 상승 여지를 봄. 엔비디아는 매출·EPS 고성장과 블랙웰 수요를 근거로 5조 달러 시가총액 가능성 제시. 비트코인은 6자리(10만 달러 이상) 가능성 언급.
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should we be surprised at this Resurgence um this melt up and it's um maybe caught some people by surprise um I I think investors should realize 2024 has been a year of uh surprising strength the market has avoided so many opportunities for weakness and now we're entering the final weeks of the Year where quite good visibility next year so I I think stocks should finish very strong why do you think money is going to the mega caps now in the manner that it is up 1 and 3/4% today the NASDAQ up almost 4% over a month and able to achieve this Milestone one reason is Mega caps have been leading um so it's sort of what people reach into the Shelf when they risk on but second we know that when interest rates fall uh the mega caps actually are very sensitive to that and I think today was a day where the odds of a December cut increased you know the probabilities are are now solidified and that's actually bullish for Tech because the CP was you know some would say sticky but it was largely in line is that how you read it the yeah that's right and I think it's allowing the CPI print today allows people to imagine a path to 2% because shelter now is cooling to a level that's in line auto insurance which was at 25% earlier this year year-over year is now down to 13 so the two biggest contributors CPI are in a downshift I don't think the fact that used cars are going up is going to reverse the fed's view I don't think the fed's going to tighten because used car prices are up all right so fed's cutting next week that's your base case yes and then what happens after that all bets are off wait and see what do you think uh I think the fed put remains in Play Because neutral is let's say 2 and a half to 3% we're at 4 five after the December cut so we know the fed's in a cutting cycle I actually think the best case is for the FED to do the fewest number of cuts next year that means the economy is pretty strong that's right it's strong they don't they're not harm the economy by keeping rates here and the labor market is is holding up and now we have a lot of Firepower for future cuts which support stocks okay you talk about a fed put you also talk about another put and that's a trump put yes he's going to be here tomorrow by the way ringing the opening bell people are excited about that uh down here for sure um but you say that that is a substantial part of your outlook for the new year the Trump put explain uh the Trump put is on the simplest level it is the a white house that is going to measure its success by how the stock market performs but it's also a president that's coming in into a second term but with a lot of EX previous experience so this is a cabinet that has good private sector acceptance and I think very markets friendly overall I I think investors who might have been cautious for the last few years now want to be risk on next year all right so you're Outlook to me is interesting the way you sort of game out where the S&P can go because you say we're going to 7,000 by mid year which sounds amazing cuz most targets that I've seen are 7,000 at the top end for the entire year your full year forecast though is 6600 why uh part of it cyclical we're coming off two backtack 20% years and there are five precedents to look at five of the five precedents since 1880 had a weaker second half so I'd say that's the base case the reason I think markets do better in the first half is that there is going to be a lot of enthusiasm about a new White House some of the headlines that come whether it's uh deregulation Etc and we know there's still a ton of cash and a lot of low leverage on the sidelines that's why stocks can rally and by the way 11% in in a few months we've seen that routinely the last couple of years but in the second half I think markets start to worry about the larger macro risks like the Middle East the potential risk of tariff and executing that and potentially the fact that Doge could be so successful that it could slow the economy s in graphics processing units is not just competing it's vying for the ultimate title with a market cap surpassing $3.4 trillion there's a palpable Buzz about its potential to outpace Apple for the world's largest company Accolade speculation swirls around its futuristic advancements and Stellar growth trajectories ushering in a wave of intrigue and excitement could Nvidia riding on the wings of its nextg Blackwell architecture and increased demand from Tech giants like meta and Amazon achieve a staggering $5 trillion market cap by 2025 stay tuned as we delve into this exhilarating race to the top welcome back everyone to invest ocracy you saw it in Bitcoin wrect and you saw it in sectors of the market that would benefit from that's right presumably who but who know know from a from a trump presidency so, 1500 points a me out of the gate more to come or are we already we're already there uh I think we need to respect this move I mean it was a tremendous Rally post election and it continued yesterday I think it really does reflect a lot of money was taken out of the market because of the uncertainty around the election and now we know that because of policy changes and animal spirits that this is really going to benefit things like Bitcoin coin and small caps and Regional Banks and financials so I do think there's still a lot of upside I mean small caps trade at 10 times median forward earnings I mean that's a you what do you think that should be 12 times what kind what's the what's the opportunity set in your mind well since 1987 small caps traded on a median PE basis at a premium to the S&P the S&P is at 17 times so I think small caps could in the next couple years outperform by you know more than 100% And what do you think think about some of the macro issues that I think create a different level of uncertainty we' keep talking about the bond market and what that might be saying what you think has happening with gold you know are the Bond vigilantes going to be this governor on whatever you think is going to happen in Washington uh as James Carville famously said you know uh the bond market is everyone's scared of the bond market so that is something we need to watch but we've had plenty of periods where stocks have risen with bonds rising and I and I kind of agree with Powell's assessment that it's not be yields have gone up not because of inflation but because there's sort of a change in growth expectations I thought that a sweep was for either party was the death nail for the markets and frightening to all involved and now we're getting a sweep why isn't it more frightening maybe a sweep the other way would have been a little more frightening to some yeah uh I mean I think part of the reason investors are getting somewhat optimistic is that president Trump is entering office again but this time with a lot more knowledge of how to build a you know a cabinet and a team and um so in some ways this would end up being more Market friendly and and I think that's why investors are becoming optimistic I mean I kind of agree with the idea that there are animal spirits growing he'll never be deficit friendly will he I mean he will be deficit friendly he won't be you know if we cut taxes on tips Social Security overtime um remove the salt cap extend the tax cuts if you do all those things that that seems like it it's going to be very difficult to fix the deficit with just changes in taxes and spending but it's probably why Bitcoin is kind of interesting here because uh it's potentially a treasury Reserve asset and you know as if Bitcoin rises in price it actually helps offset the liabilities which is the deficit the heart of nvidia's momentum lies in its remarkable Financial and technological Feats from 2023 nvidia's Revenue exemplified a jaw-dropping leap of 320% while its profits shot up an astronomical 1,340 such figures are rarely seen yet Nvidia achieves them with an air of inevitability its stock price has soared by 600% since 2023 making investors eyebrows rise and turning casual observers into firm Believers as history tells us stock price and profit growth often move hand inand like two dancers in an intricate Waltz so when was the last time you saw a tech company doing a moonwalk at the financial ball perhaps the answer lies in Nvidia as it continues to impress with these dance moves into 2025 but what's the secret sauce Behind These staggering numbers let's talk Tech not necessarily by by the end of this year or I I think six figures is still possible for before the end of the year yeah but and then more next year year and the year after yeah I I think because now you know post having and uh now bitcoin's becoming a lot more relevant and I think maybe the regulatory overhang is is diminishing that there's a lot of upside from here yes okay S&P um end of next year Well I uh between now and year end 5 to 10% is probably the base case just because that's the type of Rally post election and we have a doish fed and you know the normal seasonals is that the right move right now for the Fed I think inflation fighting uh war is largely over and you know the real rate is still too high so I agree with fed's view that we need to move towards neutral which you know which is towards 3% so I think it is supportive of markets and uh you know business investment has been constrainted so I think these things are positive so what about uh 2000 what's next year is that 25 they move so fast they're like months now the years so what about 2025 so uh 5 to 10% more would get would put us well above yeah more than 6,000 before year end uh I I think it at least for the foreseeable future no recession no recession and and people want you to answer when I ask you a question so what are you saying 60 what 100 on on the S&P I think well past like 6700 is possible sometime next year 6700 yeah sometime next year because that's another 20% isn't it yeah it's well maybe 10 15 yeah because you know margin debt hasn't really risen in the last four months and the stock market's up so we know investors haven't been adding risk and now we have earnings visibility and we have a continued doish fed and then the selections behind us so multiple Tailwinds exist wow you're you're pretty bullish I I think I'm pretty positive on on the US and fundamentals yes okay good nvidia's Supremacy isn't just a flash in the pan its Hopper architecture currently leads the GPU manufacturing domain but enter Blackwell the NextGen architecture promising to revolutionize AI model training with a four-fold speed increase over its predecessor this Advance has Tech Behemoth eagerly lined up ready to integrate Blackwell's power into their AI initiatives among these Giants meta platforms hints at ramped up Capital expenditures for building an AI computing Network likely relying heavily on nvidia's prowess the plot thickens as Microsoft Amazon and alphabet all major players in cloud computing also Express a growing demand for AI computing power further tethering their fortunes to Nvidia if excitement had a measurable form it's found here sprinkled with a dash of Envy for competitors Wall Street analysts are keeping their calculators handy projecting 51% revenue and a 50% EPS growth for NVIDIA but there's a notable caveat the stocks premium will likely rise from 45 times forward earnings an indicator of potential slowing growth yet with its robust business model Nvidia seemingly ticks every box for promising returns offering a captivating proposition for those ready to ride the next wav was speaking with the founder of a tech company that is absolutely foundational to the generative AI era if you will uh and thus an early indicator of what's happening in the market and this person said to me that they think that we are much closer to being oversaturated and over supplied in Nvidia chips than anybody realizes your thoughts well it doesn't seem that way right now I mean some of their older generation Parts like the hopper Parts Supply has gotten a lot better um as we've gone through the year um the Blackwell parts that they're getting ready to launch now seem absolutely constrained right now now there is a lot of capacity that is coming online as we go through the year um and this is why people get get positive about Nvidia because if the demand is there to meet that Supply as it comes online it's it still suggest a good amount of upside relative to where I think expectations and numbers are so that will be the debate again as we go through 2025 as that Supply comes online is the demand there to meet it or not I would say as we stand right now the demand still looks off the charts at least at this point like all these guys are going to be selling everything that they can make peering into the crystal ball of tech stock futures Nvidia shines as a beacon of potential wealth and Innovation as the Horizon of 2025 comes into view a $5 trillion market cap is not just a fantasy it's a tangible possibility contingent upon continued demand and performance the growth trajectory mirrors a well-calculated chess game where Nvidia seems poised confident and strategically ahead with Wall Street analysts painting a dynamically expanding canvas it's evident why Nvidia is heralded as a strong Buy in the Symphony of stock market speculation and calculated investment Nvidia plays a leading role inviting scrutiny investment and perhaps even a little friendly rivalry with apple let's now turn the floor to you are you betting on Nvidia reaching that illustrious $5 trillion Mark or do you foresee challenges lurking ahead you're in sites could be just as pivotal as the next tectonic shift in the
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