저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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Nvidia는 현재 독점적 초과이익을 내고 있으나 경쟁으로 점차 잠식될 것. 빅테크의 AI capex는 투자수익률 요구로 인해 막대한 매출(약 2,200억 달러 투자 시 약 450억 달러 매출 필요)을 만들어야 하나, 실질적 수익 앱은 아직 부족해 거품 우려가 있음. 엔비디아 매출 성장은 향후 2~3년 지속 가능하나 장기 밸류에이션은 응용계층으로 가치가 이동하며 제한될 가능성. 한편 진행자 측은 AI 인프라 붐이 초기이며 기술주가 1년 내 25% 추가 상승, 나스닥 25,000 가능성을 언급. 양자컴퓨팅은 상용화까지 최소 10년으로 봄.
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I think what I would tell you is that the bigger principle and we've talked about this a lot Jason is that in capitalism when you over earn for enough of a time what happens is competitors decide to try to compete away your earnings in the absence of a monopoly the amount of time that you have tends to be small and it shrinks so in the case of a monopoly for example take Google you can ere earn for decades and it takes a very very long time for somebody to try to displace you we're just starting to see the beginnings of that with things like perplexity and other services that are chipping away at the Google Monopoly but at some point in time all of these excess profits are competed away in the case of Nvidia what you're now starting to see is them over earn in a very massive way so the real question is who will step up to try to compete away those profits the old Bezos quote right your margin is my opportunity and I think we're starting to see and you've mentioned grock who had a super viral moment I think this week but you're starting to see the emergence of a more detailed understanding of what this Market actually means and as a result who will compete away the inference Market who will compete away the training market and the economics of that are just becoming known to now more and more people to make money right otherwise you're you're going to look really foolish for having spent 20 and 30 and4 billion so Nick if you just go back to the to the revenue slide of Nvidia I can try to give you a framing of this at least the way that I think about it so if if you look at this like what you're talking about is look who is going to spend $22.1 billion well you said it Jason it's all a big Tech why because they have that money on the balance sheet sitting idle but when you spend $22 billion their investors are going to demand a rate of return on that and so if you think about what a reasonable rate of return is call it 30 40 50% and then you factor in and that's profit and then you factor in all of the other things that need to support that that $22 billion of spend needs to generate probably $45 billion of Revenue and so Jason the question to your point and to Freed br's Point The $64,000 Question is who in this last quarter is going to make 45 billion on that 22 billion of spend and again what I would tell you to be really honest about this is that what you're seeing is more about big companies musling people around with their balance sheet and being able to go to Nvidia and say I will give you committed pre- purchases over the next three or four quarters and less about here is a product that I'm shipping that actually makes money which I need enormous more compute resources for it's not the ladder most of the apps the overwhelming majority of the apps that we're seeing in AI today are toy apps that are run as proofs of concept and demos and run in a sandbox it is not production code this is not we've rebuilt the entire autopilot system for the Boeing and it's now run with agents and Bots and all of this training that's not what's happening so it is a really important question today the demand is clear it's the big guys with huge gobs of money and by the way Nvidia is super smart to take it because they can now forecast demand for the next two or three quarters I think we still need to see the next big thing and if you look in the past what the past has showed you it's the big guys don't really invent the new things that make a ton of money it's the new guys who because they don't have a lot of money and they have to be a little bit more industrious come up with something really authentic and new yeah constraint for great art yeah we haven't seen that yet so I think the revenue scale will continue for like the next two or three years probably for NVIDIA but the real question is what is the terminal value and it's the same thing that Sach showed in that Cisco slide people ultimately realized that the value was going to go to other parts of the stack the application layer and as more and more money was acred at the application layer of the internet less and less Revenue multiple and credit was given to Cisco and that's nothing against Cisco because their revenue continued to compound right and they did an incredible job but the valuation got Nvidia having secured its place as the leading supplier of Graphics processing units for AI data centers Nvidia is at the Forefront of a technological Revolution with staggering demand that far outpaces Supply the buzz around Nvidia is not just about its immediate success but an even more promising future CEO Jensen hang's ambitious prediction of a$1 trillion investment in data center infrastructure for AI over the next four years is enough to Captivate any Investor's imagination yet this could just be the tip of the iceberg as nvidia's Blackwell gpus find their way into Tech giants like Microsoft the implications for financial growth are not only significant they're transformational welcome back everyone to invest accy yeah look I mean I think we're as me you have talked and talking the show this is just the beginning I mean I think this is ultimately going to be another 2 threee bull marker for Tech because it's a fourth Industrial Revolution that's playing out in front of us and that's going to be big Tac and the multiplier and I think this is it's only 10 p.m.
in the AI party that goes to 4:00 a.m. yeah have you gotten any later in the party or are we still it's always kind of early isn't it I mean it's been a year now but we're still at 10 P oh we started at 9: okay started at 9: now 10 p.m. and look we think tech stocks are up another 25% over the next year and I think NASDAQ 25,000 a year from now is something that we're going to start talking about going into the end of next year early 26 yeah so much of this there it is the last line there so much of this depending on the numbers are staggering we talk about them all the time quarter to quarter but you think AI capex is going to exceed a trillion dollar why in 2025 I should say yeah why yeah it's everything seeing look that's that's why we travel the globe right trying to understand where the AI cap X is and e AI cap PS potential by 30 to 40% and I think the biggest thing here is the multiplier for every dollar spent on a video attack that's why you have names like the Messi of AI pounder you have other use cases that are now starting to be in software sales force you know front and center and this is just the beginning it's get the popcorn out because the rest of tech now sees the benefit of the AI Revolution the year 2023 was a groundbreaking one for NVIDIA its revolutionary h100 GPU dominated the AI data center chip Market securing a staggering 98% market share but like any seasoned performer who refuses to rest on their Laurels Nvidia has rolled out its Blackwell architecture offering a leap in performance that makes a Quantum jump look like a hop skip and jump imagine this the Blackwell based gb2 200 NV l72 system processes AI inference at 30 times the speed of its predecessor the h100 system this game-changing enhancement isn't just about speed it's a symphony of cost efficiency sure a single gb200 GPU commands an $83,000 price tag double that of the h100 but what you're really buying is Monumental performance gains that translate to tangible savings IO fund their lead tech analyst Beth kig and Beth uh you know you you you put some great charts in your your report uh underscoring just the threat to specific computer chip names is this one of the reasons why the chip we're sharing them on the screen right now uh you've got lamb research you've got uh uh asml uh k k klac is this one of the reasons you think that we've seen so much pressure in Sim and just over the last few weeks hi Charles that's a great question considering we have ai leaders such as Nvidia uh taking up all of the attention semiconductors topped back in June and July and we absolutely think some of this is due to tariffs to put it into perspective uh from 2024 to 2025 if these tariffs come into effect we're tracking a 25% decline in what's called wafer fabrication equipment this is the equipment that helps to build the chips um for sure you know these leaders such as Nvidia we think will be quite strong next year but can they carry uh the entire ETF we're finding that that Nvidia is not strong enough to carry all of that pressure right and we and to your point we've seen that we've seen where the semis in general have gotten hammered and and and nvidia's gone back to New highs also though I read or heard this morning nvidia's hiring in China what what is it that they must do they know that this maybe this tariff thing could be short aled in video's story of China is quite interesting because they came under very strict export controls uh one to two years ago these AI chips that have been driving so much of the market were seen as a security threat therefore they've had to reduce the uh we they've had to reduce the generation down uh make them a little less powerful in order to sell them to China uh however if you go back to what Jensen Wong has said about China there is only one China and what he's trying to say is when you have that kind of massive population at all of them you know middle class or above quite a few of them middle class or above it is quite hard to make up for that loss globally Microsoft ever the tech Titan has emerged as the largest buyer of these impressive gpus their Grand Vision extends Beyond enhancing their own AI prowess they plan to offer this computational muscle to other AI developers via their Azure Cloud platform and it seems they won't stand alone amidst the tech behemoths Amazon web services Google's cloud and Oracle are lining up each vying for a slice of nvidia's magic to illustrate the scale Nvidia shipped 13,000 Blackwell samples in its fiscal 2025 third quarter alone and that's barely scratching the surface pundits at Morgan Stanley don't just foresee a continuation of this momentum they predict an escalation Nvidia is anticipated to ship a whopping 300,000 units in just the last 3 months of 2024 and an eye popping 800,000 in the first quarter of 2025 as Wall Street projects nvidia's fiscal 2026 revenue is set to climb to new heights to 195.40 reports from Morgan Stanley Echo hang's optimistic Outlook just four Tech behemoths Microsoft Amazon alphabet and meta are poised to spend an astounding $300 billion on AI infrastructure in 2025 alon come out of nowhere you know I was with a guest yesterday we were just talking about CPUs being replaced by gpus and now this qpu right uh I I I don't know about you but I think it may have saved Google or potentially could save Google uh because I hardly use it as much as I Ed it for search and things like that do you think Willow is it too early to judge whether or not it can live up to the hype this whole Quantum thing in your mind I do Quantum Computing is very very early it you can think of it as a Time vehicles or what they call um high performance Computing which are the supercomputers that governments use these are really R&D departments that will take some time before Wall Street sees the profits That Wall Street likes to reward if I were to guess I think we are minimum 10 years out before we see a commercialized application for Quantum Computing all right before I let you go so in the last three weeks there's been an interesting theme in this market companies that report and can mention AI in a positive way get rewarded really nicely right we saw it last week uh in the last few weeks with names like salesforce.com I'm looking at Oracle and yeah posted a a chart there and I think they said everything right but the stock didn't react the same is it because the shares are already up or are there are or or is the market starting to really Define true AI winners from those true AI also Rands that's a great question Charles of course a company like Oracle will get into AI of course a company like Salesforce will get into AI but will we see those exponential moves like what we saw with Nvidia I would be cautious there I really continue to like the hardware layer the hardware is where a lot of these problems are being solved as we look into 2025 um I had said Blackwell's revenue for NVIDIA will exceed 2023 and 2024 combined the complexity of that Hardware is going up 4 to eight times from what we just saw in 2024 uh that is really where you want to be concentrated and that's not quite where Oracle is at I go you taking into account all these factors envidia finds itself in a powerful position with a path to surging above $800 per share come 2025 its potent mix of market dominance in AI enabled gpus substantial pricing power and a burgeoning demand curve make for an enticing investment story as more companies gear up to sync Capital into AI infrastructure nvidia's narrative not only remains untarnished it ascends to new chapters of growth and opportunity the stock that once seemed costly now stands at the precipice of being undervalued ripe with potential to soar by next year driven in part by Future prospects of their Ruben architecture a sleeper story waiting to unfold in the company of such Innovation and growth one might question not the necessity of investment but the astuteness in the timing of it could now be that golden moment and finally if
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