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hi welcome to the video and on monday big short investor michael birdy says tesla stock could plunge 90 without major fallout and a slump could produce speculation let's take a look at his tweet cassandra at michael j bury says tesla below a hundred dollars per share by later this year will not crash the system there is no reflexivity in such a fall but it would trigger the end of an error for a certain type of investing tesla stock on monday february 15th is at 816 dollars per share for it to drop to a hundred dollars would represent a decline of over 85 percent closing in on a 90 percent which is unheard of for a mega cap company but it's because michael bury thinks tesla is severely overvalued i disagree and we'll talk about why regarding whether the system will completely fail or not i think he totally could be right just because tesla were to crash wouldn't necessarily result in the crashing of other stocks but today i want to focus on this price target of below 100 a share and i want to take this opportunity actually to revisit my previous video and to clarify some of my thoughts so this video michael bury predicts tesla stock will collapse is one of my most popular videos with over 15 000 views in this video i talk about how i thought michael bury was wrong to say sell tesla and that chamon's idea that you should hold and you should not sell was a stronger idea because personally i am very bullish on tesla a lot of people liked it but also a lot of people disliked it uh we can go over some of the comments now saving the world off tesla cheerleader be real you're pumping your wallet tesla shareholders are like ostriches they stick their head in the sand and hope the lion will not devour them sell now before it's too late if a lot of people that don't have a clue about a stock keep on buying then don't short if the truth comes out then short it the ticking time bomb is the tesla stock i'll be honest i was a little surprised at how much pushback i got on this video i was also called a cult leader or fanboy of tesla as if it doesn't matter what tesla does i will stick with them that is absolutely not true i see tesla for all its flaws i understand why people don't like elon he can be or seem to be fairly erratic at times and tesla is by no means a perfect company you can see it by the quality control of their cars about a lot of their production issues a whole host of issues me as a person yes i might agree with their mission or their stated mission accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy but at the end of the day i am an investor and if i'm putting my money in some place i would want to know if this company is not dependable therefore when i put my money in tesla it's because i believe it has the best chance of giving me the best return not because of some blind faith you will not be a good investor if you are relying on faith so me being bullish on tesla is just based on my research and we could look at brewery who's bearish or we can look at chamath who's bullish by the end of the day you have to come up with your own idea about a company after reading all your comments i just want to say that i think a lot of the worries are actually valid for me investing is all about probabilities because again there are no absolutes only the sith deal in absolutes when i see a company like tesla when i see all of the things it has down its pipeline i roughly give it a let's say 80 85 chance of doubling within three years i think its journey has just begun it's building gigafactories everywhere it has the million mile battery coming out even though they didn't explicitly state that it was ready because elon doesn't want to scare off current buyers from buying its cars but that's coming there are videos of the batteries being produced full self driving is also coming it's a matter of time so i think tesla has a very very high chance of doubling or even more than doubling in the next three years now on the bearish side what are the chances that tesla would drop to 500 do they exist sure but i think the chances of it dropping or its share price getting cut in half is probably easily below 10 what are the chances of tesla going to zero i would say close to none there's essentially no chance tesla will go to zero it's now a very very large mega cap company those chances are equivalent to facebook or apple dropping to zero so if there is another company that can give me this high of a probability of doubling or more than doubling in the next three years i would put my money into that no question as of right now i don't see another company with those odds there's a lot of great companies to invest in but at smaller caps the risk of it dropping are much higher at this big of a company tesla's ceiling is a lot higher and that's why i will continue to hold tesla and if tesla were to drop to 400 or 500 that's actually a buying opportunity one other thing i also want to know is that why is michael bury saying this stuff michael bray has explicitly said he has a short position on tesla and a lot of my comments were saying like we should trust michael berry he's right he was right about the housing crisis so he's probably right about this i will concede michael bury is a very smart individual and he could be right about this he could be right let me repeat that again but a big but when you have a short position you have a time limit he has to be right in a certain amount of time so if tesla were to go up to 1500 over the next four years michael bury would lose all of his money and then let's say in four years tesla gets cut in half or something happens michael bray would still lose a ton of money so him posting this twitter thing right now he's trying to push the stock down when chaman says something bullish about tesla it's not equivalent because tremont is a long-term investor so people saying that i'm trying to pump the stock up or chaman's trying to pump the stock up it doesn't make sense because it doesn't matter chamoth is going to hold tesla for probably at least 10 more years so he has all of the time in the world to see tesla fluctuate up and down and if anything if i am a bull on tesla i'll be honest i want tesla to drop because i want to buy more there's no incentive for me to push the tesla stock up now way past what it's supposed to be evaluated at if i'm bullish for 10 years i would rather it be at its fair market value i don't want it to be overvalued if it's overvalued i can't justify spending any more money on it a couple of years ago everybody was bearish about tesla everybody and just seeing these comments it actually really really opened my eyes and this shows me that there's still a lot of fear around tesla and some of it is justified but i also think some of it is not some of the people posting comments don't really have a deep understanding of what tesla does in my opinion but don't take my word for it let's look at some current price targets right now so here is adam jonas of morgan stanley he very very recently raised his price target up to 880 dollars and gave it a buy rating and we can look at his past performance average return of 13.1 percent he's ranked 841 out of 7 310 investors on tick ranks that's a pretty good track record let's look at another price target this is mark delaney from goldman sachs he has an average rate of return of 16.9 ranked about 1013 out of 7310 his tesla target price is 835 and it's also a buy these aren't even their bull cases and now we have a tesla bear one of the more famous ones from jp morgan and we see this in the news all the time jp morgan lowers tesla price target jp morgan continues to be bearish but let's look at this analyst ranking he's ranked 6822 out of 7 310 with an average return of negative 3.8 and literally one of the most bullish runs we've ever seen in our whole lives he has managed to be negative you could literally throw darts on a dart board and have more success than this guy let's look at his tesla rack uh his position to sell 135 dollars negative 83.46 downside this is still higher than what michael bury posted of a hundred dollars i don't think that's actually michael berry's price target but he's just saying stuff because i think he wants to push it down when these companies come out with their recommendations it's not to educate us it's not out of the goodness of their heart oftentimes they are trying to manipulate the market or in jp morgan's case this guy already has very very little street cred so him saying that this is not a good company he's like their sacrificial lamb send them out it doesn't matter if he's wrong this is going to cause more fear and uncertainty in the stock and ultimately drive it down almost every time jpmorgan has released a new price target the stock has come down a little bit and i guarantee you jp morgan is buying when that happens that's the reason for this i'm not trying to say all this because i want to prove that i'm right or anything i just don't want people viewing this to be stuck in a mentality that everything is black or white and miss out on opportunity you see this a lot for these mega companies people talk about how jeff bezos is mistreating its workers and yes that's true but amazon has also changed the world how bill gates was this ruthless businessman and he was a very very bad person until he wasn't and if you have this thinking if they're doing one bad thing or there's something about them i don't like therefore i don't invest you are going to be missing out on a lot of opportunities so a couple of quotes by tremont to end this video quote i don't understand why people are so focused on selling things that work when things are working you're paid to stay with people that know what they're doing and this is a guy elon musk who has consistently been one of the most important entrepreneurs in the world so why bet against him quote i tweeted this a while ago that i thought the world's first trillionaire would be a person fighting climate change it very well could be elon but if it's not him it'll be somebody like him it will be because of this delivering clean energy allowing the world to be sustainable is an incredibly important thing that will be rewarded by markets and individuals end quote that's what i was saying when he was saving the world that might have felt like a little bit of a hyperbole but it's true now on the flip side maybe elon's just doing this because he has a huge ego both things can be true elon could want to have his name in the history books he want could want to be hoarding wealth for his family but he could also be wanting to save the world to actually make the world sustainable because of selfish reasons at the end of the day we don't know his heart i can only go off what he says and what he's doing based on what he says and what he's doing i think he is ultimately a force for good by transitioning the global feat of vehicles away from ice cars to ev cars is going to help us fight climate change that's a fact and we cannot continue to use oil and gas for our energy there's just a finite amount it's not going to work back to the article pauli hapatia added that the power utility business was ripe for disruption and that there were trillions of dollars of bonds of capex of value sitting inside the energy generation infrastructure when those are harnessed he says tesla will double and or triple again and that's it for today hopefully that clarifies some of my thoughts let's forget about all the experts for one second let me know what your price target of tesla is generally when we talk about price targets well we are estimating about a year from now so where do you think tesla will be a year from now or three years from now i want to say thank you to all of the people who love comments especially the people that were supportive even the people who disagreed with me a majority of them had very reasonable well-intentioned counter-arguments and i always appreciate that i'm always always open to changing my mind nothing i say is absolute i just want to encourage you guys to also just be open-minded and don't think that just because one thing is true that this alternate thing could not also be true a lot of the correct stances on positions often times are somewhere in the middle and it's a balance between two opposing forces between the bears and the bulls ultimately if you like this video please consider subscribing i know a majority of you are not subscribed but there's going to be plenty more videos just like this in the comment section for us to duke out our ideas this is green night trading where squires i'm nice to y'all so much for watching i appreciate you and i'll see you soon you
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