저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 곤들락은 다음 경기침체와 구제금융 과정에서 달러가 약세를 보일 것이며, 미국 경제가 어두운 방향으로 가고 있다고 본다. 달러 약세 전망: 다음 침체 때 구제금융이 다시 나오면 달러가 크게 약해질 수 있다고 주장한다. 달러는 과대평가 상태이며, 쌍둥이 적자(재정·경상)를 기준으로 한 달러 지수 방향을 핵심 지표로 본다. 다만 이 지표는 시차가 길고 약 8년 주기로 움직인다고 설명한다. 금리와 인플레이션: 1980년대 볼커 연준의 고금리 이후 금리 상단이 점점 낮아졌고, 2018년에는 기준금리 1.8%에도 경제와 증시가 흔들렸다고 본다. 연준이 금리를 올리기 어려운 구조이며, 인플레이션이 달러를 갉아먹고 있다고 주장한다. 인플레이션 수치: 미국 CPI 전년비 6.8% 수준이며, 곧 7%대 진입 가능성이 높다고 본다. 유럽식 방식으로 계산하면 7.8%라는 점과 주거비(OER) 산정 방식의 문제를 지적한다. 지정학·기타: 대만-중국 상황이 종착점에 가까워지고 있다고 언급한다. 인플레이션 심리가 소셜미디어로 빠르게 확산되어 초인플레이션 위험이 커졌다고 본다. 리스크: 자산별 구체적 매매 권유나 목표가는 없고, 전반적 비관론 중심이다. 영상 후반은 후원 콘텐츠 소개가 많다. 출연자 전망은 전반적으로 비관적이다.
다듬은 글
we finally got the shocking interview jeffrey gunlock he's the billionaire founder of double on capital and he sat down with yahoo news where he made some stunning predictions regarding the future of this country and economy the interview is over 30 minutes long but in today's video we're just gonna focus on a couple of specific clips regarding the astonishing predictions jeffrey is making the big question on everyone's mind is specific to one thing where is this all going and is a great depression coming to this country before you call me out for clickbait here is the king of bonds billionaire investor and one of the most respected names in finance saying the impossible america is headed towards a dark place but before we begin i just want to give a quick shout out this video was made in partnership with the daily upside a free financial newsletter that offers high quality coverage of daily business and finance news visit the link in the description to learn more now back to the video let's take a listen i almost feel like there's no turning back on some of these things i feel like uh the taiwan chinese situation is getting near an end game i i think the us dollar reserve currency situation is getting more near an end game and that's really going to be the game change when i say the next bailout is going to be the one that is maybe breaks the camel's back i think it'll take the dollar down so it's in the next recession i think that we're going to see dollar weakness and the dollar is very very overvalued versus our twin deficits one of my most trusted indicators is the direction of the dollar broadly versus the twin deficits as a percentage of gdp there's a long lead time it's a long-term thing it doesn't work for a year it's something that has like an eight-year cycle okay that may have not sounded shocking to a regular person but what jeffrey just said there is that in the next recession when bailouts happen again just as they did in 2007 the dollar is done if you were not aware the us dollar is the reserve currency of the world without getting into the details this means that the united states and its citizens enjoy many economic privileges that other countries could only dream of historically once a country loses its status as the worldwide reserve it's the final nail in the coffin the end of an empire this process of slow decay has already started for the dollar to understand this you have to understand the relationship between interest rates and inflation in our country we have seen this relationship disintegrate putting our powerful dollar at risk you see when times get tough the fed lowers rates to promote economic activity it's their job to keep this delicate balance lower the rates too far and you'll overheat the economy raise the rates too much and you'll end up with a recession so how does all of this relate to the downfall of the dollar well the story starts way back in the 1980s when the us faced a massive inflation crisis paul volcker and ronald reagan solved it by raising interest rates specifically they raised the rate to a crazy 18 percent this put a massive strain on businesses but it ultimately fixed a problem with the decaying us dollar eventually the federal reserve began to lower these rates once they realized inflation was disappearing with each subsequent year of progress the rate fell and fell until it reached 6 percent in the mid-80s at this point the fed decided to up to rates once again giving them more breathing room in the future if times got bad and they needed to cut rates to spur economic progress but remember back then raising the rate to give more breathing room was done at six percent which was a low number back then they did this until about 1989.
that year the rate got to 10 percent and the economy began to sputter soon the u.s entered the recession once again to fix this the fed lowered the rate just as they would in any other recession and the economy went back to normal but this process of lowering interest rates and then raising them after recovery revealed a massive flaw with our system each time the fed completed this process the limit of how high they could push interest rates before the economy sputtered grew lower and lower by the time 2018 came around we saw that even when the fed raised the rate to a mere 1.8 percent the economy gave up and the stock market collapsed this is the real reason why we have zero percent interest and it's why the feds simply can't afford to raise the rate even a little bit we saw earlier this week that even when they just mentioned that they planned on raising the rate to 0.75 percent this year the entire market took a massive l this is also why multiple experts say that the fed is stuck it can't raise the rate without creating a massive recession but by sitting idle they watch inflation destroy the dollar while the official inflation report reveals a 6.8 decay in the dollar the real number felt by people is likely much much worse because the government has manipulated the stats for years in their favor this isn't some conspiracy theory it's a fact accepted even by prominent hedge fund managers take a listen to jeffrey explain this massive issue that continues to break down society but before we get into his comments let me quickly tell you about today's video partner the daily upside if you struggle to find useful and unbiased financial news the daily upside may be the solution to your problem the daily upside is a completely free daily email newsletter written by a team of former investment bankers scholars and journalists it has quickly become the first thing i read in the morning as the insights they offer on business and financial news are clear unbiased and a bit witty unlike traditional financial click bait the daily upside goes beyond the headlines to give you real perspective and analysis that is not dumbed down just last week they had a great piece on this as someone who needs to stay on top of news to create business like this i cannot recommend the daily upside enough whether you're a financial professional or just looking to get an edge on the markets the daily upside will help check out the link in my description it is totally free and if you don't love the daily upside you can always unsubscribe now let's get back to jeffrey's comments and inflation is going to continue to go up at least in the next couple of months where do you see inflation this year um it's well okay we have to look at different measures of cpi um cpi is at 6.8 right now year-over-year the one that's rolling off uh for last december is 0.2 so the way things are going it seems pretty likely that we're going to get a 7 handle on the cpi soon but the cpi of course is a strange construct it's not calculated the same way as european cpi if you use the european cpi methodology our cpi right now would be at 7.8 so it's calculated a little bit differently also the there's this strange thing about shelter that's almost a third of our cpi and shelter includes largely something called owner's equivalent rent a noise equivalent rent is not a real thing it's not like you're going out there and measuring rents what you're doing is asking people that don't rent out their house if you did went out your house what do you think you'd rent it out for versus last year as if a regular homeowner that doesn't rent out their house has any idea i probably couldn't estimate what i could rent my property out for within within 20 percent i've no idea i've never looked at it so there's your main problem with all of this we measure inflation by trusting the government sources to provide us with the data most of the time nobody cares about inflation but when it gets bad enough and people feel their paychecks becoming worth less and less they start to get angry imagine you're a skilled inspector who made 25 an hour in the midwest this was once a respected salary but when the taco bell worker down the road is offered 18 your mind begins to boil the natural human instincts of jealousy and justice and selfishness kick in now add in the fact that your rent is shooting up the price of food is skyrocketing and you have a recipe for disaster slowly your paycheck buys you less and less and the government is telling you the housing is only up three percent an absurd estimation given the fact that by most other accounts rents are up over 21 percent this year alone in all cases throughout history the government makes many attempts to downplay the facts on the ground when it comes to the collapse of their currency two years ago anyone who mentioned that the us may experience hyperinflation would quickly get labeled as a conspiracy theorist now with each passing day we are seeing that these michael berry tweets are getting closer and closer to reality the government can spew whatever nonsense it wants regarding the cost of goods but you can't stop the people from feeling their paychecks erode away at an unprecedented pace if you understand inflation psychology you know that it's a dangerous state of mind that leads to consumers spending more quickly than they otherwise would in the belief that prices are rising in the past this psychology took much longer to develop among the masses but today with the presence of social media cell phones and a 24 7 news cycle many experts theorize that this will move much faster in the 21st century essentially they believe that hyperinflation is much easier to achieve in the era of social media whatever the case may be we can easily conclude that jeffrey's comments are very concerning it's sad to hear a prominent hedge fund manager state that he believes the dollar will collapse in the next bailout as always thank you guys for watching please make sure you and if you haven't already please make sure you click the link in the description to check out today's sponsor the daily upside
Comments 0