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well the Market's been in a sort of subdued mode after the long holy weekend reacting to perhaps the pause that we saw on Wall Street as well it's a good time to get you a big view on the street and what lies ahead I caught up with veteran investor Ram agraval to discuss the portfolio construct for the medium-term given the recent volatility and the fact that we've had this first sign of a cool off in the broader Market Ram says the Nifty can actually double in the next 5 years and one should remain invested in the market that's his big big message and takeaway he also likes sectors like Capital Market related plays real estate defense and power these are likely to be the key outperforming themes for the next several years by the way towards the end he also shares his take on HDFC Bank given its recent underperformance take a look see first thing is you should remain allocated staying out of Market is not going to help because we don't know as we are talking Market will be up 2% or down 2% you know it is that kind of momentum is there so you be allocated because the long-term Outlook is very good I have stayed in the market for 45 years I mean I'm really Grandpa of this Market you you started the 80s right 1980 1980 when index was 100 SX was 100 I have seen index growing by 72 7 30 times x dividend come dividend would be almost thousand times wow forces are gathering Pace to favor India so my sense is this is this journey is going to most exciting Journey now here how do we look at things how do we develop themes where are the big trends yeah so which are the early Trends and where things can be big like say uh say like Capital markets I said it's just 2 three years old Trend I think if if we are going to go from 150 million to say 500 million in next 10 years I think we have so there's a long Runway long and it's a very Consolidated business mind you it's not a very spread out business M mhm when we started in 87 the turnover was 200 cres per day and there 500 Brokers they were not able to settle the markets today we are doing do you know how much we're doing 400 lakh cres per day total turnover total turnover and there are only 50 Brokers so it's it's a real explosion that's happened in the capital markets it's still going at 50% sure sure so I think we have a see whatever is digitized I think it just scales up like mt so that's one big theme the let me ask you about the themes that are already now about a year old and get your sense on whether there's more Ste or not should be Auto is doing well capex is doing well is doing well medical is doing well so those are the things which are which are trending very well but there are the real fun is buying something which is not trending well right now or at a very L stage but eventually is going to become very large and do you see something like that of course so not stock mies but just ideas so sell real estate real estate was in dump three years back and now they have got up and growing but still it's early stage for them they are repairing the balance sheet is still but this this sector along with the stock market can become very large because still the housing is not done and as you become rich I mean the biggest growth sector is going to be uh real estate because you want to in in house so now the issue is that how they use the power of market cap power of their valuation to uh to speed up their project execution and give better value to their customers but what about the stocks uh do you still find Value in real estate stocks I see don't see you have to you are the in you have to figure I'm telling you the broad Trend in the econom broad Trend in the sector from there you can find some small cap in Chennai or I mean every city has their own real estate company and Brilliant guy could be there so you have to find those stocks and invest in them of course large cap dlf your oberoy your Lo high and those things are listed you can really go and see what is happening there absolutely absolutely so that sector can be very large defense expenditure infra expenditure Auto expenditure actually when the economy booms M literally every sector participates in that sure some someone's like capex is going to be very big theme as we go forward very B is seriously very large so you know I completely understand where your optimism is coming from because when we talk to these companies the managements they talk about their order books they talk about the opportunity they they talk about government spending uh but just broadly speaking uh in terms of how much the market has already discounted whether it's defense whether it's capital goods there is energy transition power now I mean there's so much of even capacity your fossil fuel transition your wind solar those things are not even started so even in terms of valuations there still Comfort don't worry too much about why you so upset about valuation you size it up I mean we cannot size up in this 10 minutes sure every company you have to go and figure out what is the prospect for the company what the company is going there go and understand stay two days with them then you'll understand some sense of it what is there so Market are not very good in discounting very long term they're very good in fact they're they're they're very excited about the short term and they have no clue about very long term no clue at all and that's why you make money you see in HDFC bank or even infosis and all you made money back ended not in the front- ended I mean in 96 97 it was very clear HDFC bank is a winner or even 2,000 was winner you see after that what has happened you got 30% return for next 20 years how come and now so now yes the story still remain same if you understand yeah yeah I this is a time to really go and do research and figure out what is the future of it are they going to lose market share or are they going to build on the market share because the the credit growth or uh the banking needs of the country is going to grow at 15 16% so the whole call is if they keep going market share they will grow 15% plus that's a very very bullish sounding Ram agal but he also says in the earlier part of the interview that Corrections will come you cannot guess when and why but don't be too perturbed uh stay invested for the medium to long term and that's when Nigel he's saying the Nifty can double and then he lists out all of these sectors that he sees are sort of big defining trends that you must see a reflection of in your portfolios well that's right uh good one s well you can keep catching excerpts of that all through the day on with regard to that interview as well by the way before we move on just put
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