저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
장기 투자 관점에서 시장에 머무르라는 메시지. 인도 Nifty는 향후 5년 내 두 배 가능하다고 주장하며, 자본시장·부동산·방산·전력을 유망 테마로 제시. 1980년대 이후 지수 대비 큰 성장을 근거로 제시. 부동산은 재무구조 개선 중이라 초기 단계로 평가. 밸류에이션은 장기 성장 대비 아직 부담이 크지 않다고 봄. 단기 조정은 올 수 있으나 중장기 보유 권고.
다듬은 글
Market has been in a subdued mode after the long holiday weekend, reacting to the pause we saw on Wall Street. It's a good time to get a big-picture view of the street and what lies ahead. I caught up with veteran investor Raamdeo Agrawal to discuss how to construct a portfolio for the medium term, given the recent volatility and the first sign of a cool-off in the broader market.
Raamdeo says the Nifty can actually double in the next five years, and investors should remain invested. That's his big message and takeaway. He also likes sectors such as capital market-related plays, real estate, defense, and power. These are likely to be the key outperforming themes for the next several years. Towards the end, he also shares his view on HDFC Bank given its recent underperformance.
Staying out of the market won't help, because we don't know whether the market will be up 2% or down 2% tomorrow. The momentum is there, so you should stay allocated, because the long-term outlook is very good. I have stayed in the market for 45 years. I'm really the grandpa of this market. You started in the 1980s, right? In 1980, when the index was 100, the Sensex was 100. Since then I have seen the index grow about 730 times, and the dividend-adjusted figure would be almost a thousand times. Forces are gathering pace to favor India, so my sense is this journey is going to be the most exciting journey.
How do we develop themes, and where are the big trends? Take capital markets, for example. It's a trend only two or three years old. If we go from 150 million investors to, say, 500 million in the next 10 years, there is a long runway. It's also a very consolidated business, not a spread-out one. When we started in 1987, daily turnover was 200 crore, with 500 brokers who couldn't even settle the markets. Today, do you know how much we're doing? Total turnover is 400 lakh crore per day, and there are only 50 brokers. That's a real explosion in the capital markets, and it's still growing at 50%. Whatever is digitized scales up like that, so that's one big theme.
Let me ask about themes that are already about a year old and get your sense of whether there's more steam left. Autos are doing well, capex is doing well, and medical is doing well. Those are trending strongly. But the real fun is buying something that isn't trending well right now, or is at a very early stage, but will eventually become very large. Do you see something like that?
Of course, not stock names, just ideas. Real estate was in the dumps three years ago, and now it has picked up and is growing. But it's still early for them; they are still repairing their balance sheets. This sector, along with the stock market, can become very large, because housing demand is still not satisfied. As people get richer, the biggest growth sector will be real estate, because everyone wants a house. The issue now is how these companies use the power of their market cap and valuation to speed up project execution and deliver better value to customers.
Do you still find value in real estate stocks? You have to figure it out yourself. I'm telling you the broad trend in the economy and in the sector. From there, you can find small caps in Chennai, or any city, since every city has its own real estate company, and a brilliant guy could be there. You have to find those stocks and invest in them. Of course, the large caps like DLF, Oberoi, and Lodha are listed, and you can go and see what is happening there.
That sector can be very large. Defense expenditure, infrastructure expenditure, and auto expenditure all grow when the economy booms. Literally every sector participates. Capex is going to be a very big theme as we go forward, very big, seriously very large.
I completely understand where your optimism is coming from. When we talk to these companies, the managements talk about their order books and their opportunities, and they talk about government spending. But broadly speaking, how much has the market already discounted? Whether it's defense or capital goods, there is energy transition. There's so much room in capacity: fossil fuel transition, wind, solar. Those things haven't even started. So even in terms of valuations, there is still comfort. Don't worry too much about valuation. You size it up, but we can't size it up in these ten minutes. For every company, you have to go and figure out what the prospects are and where the company is heading. Understand it. Spend two days with them, and then you'll understand what's there.
Markets are not very good at discounting very long-term outcomes. They are very excited about the short term and have no clue about the very long term, which is exactly why you make money. Look at HDFC Bank or even Infosys. In 1996–97 it was very clear HDFC Bank was a winner, and even in 2000 it was a winner. After that, you got a 30% return for the next 20 years. How come? The story still remains the same if you understand it.
Yes, this is the time to really go and do research and figure out the future. Are they going to lose market share, or will they build on it? Credit growth and the banking needs of the country are going to grow at 15–16%. So the whole call is this: if they keep their market share, they will grow 15% plus. That's a very bullish call.
Raamdeo also says, earlier in the interview, that corrections will come. You cannot guess when or why, but don't be too perturbed. Stay invested for the medium to long term. That's when he says the Nifty can double, and then he lists the sectors he sees as the big defining trends that should be reflected in your portfolio.
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