Nifty Can Double In 5 Years; Remain Optimistic On Long-Term Growth Outlook: Raamdeo Agrawal

요약 보기

향후 3~5년 내 조정(correction)은 불가피하지만 장기 상승 추세는 유효하다고 주장. 기업이익 성장률 약 15%를 전제로 니프티가 15%/년 복리 성장해 5년마다 두 배가 된다고 봄. 현재 PER 21~22배는 다소 높다고 평가하며, 이익 성장 전망과 PMI·세수 호조를 근거로 낙관적 입장 유지. 정부의 국영기업 지분 매각 필요성도 언급. 투자자에게는 시장 타이밍을 피하고 장기 투자를 유지하라고 조언.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. move on remain invested in the market as long uh as the long-term Outlook remains very positive that's the word coming in from Ram agraval as he discusses market valuations and the recent midgap correction with Sur upadhi he also expects the Nifty to comound at 15% every year and double every five years listen so how do you look at the next three years given the fact that it's been pretty much a nice one-way ride from Co onwards correction will happen don't ask me when and why okay but it will happen it has happened for last 40 years it will happen again you know uh what will spur that I don't know it might be just a supply there will be so much of Supply that every day you are taking $1 billion from the market by block deal clearly there will be correction people will get fed up and now government is not even selling the PSU dment is not even started so government should also sell this is a golden opportunity for them I think post election the new new FM or whoever is the in charge dep and all they must sell if they don't sell then there a invested opportunity because they must use by selling 2 lakh cres they must go and build whatever fancy Road they want to make instead of four land you must make eight land roads but you must sell so uh clearly I mean there see the overpricing is not a healthy thing if something should trade at 15p and if it is trading 35p see the person who's holding the stock he loves it but it is a completely wrong thing it is not healthy at all for the market some rate is going to collapse so correction will happen correction will happen next 3 to 5 years uh what are what kind of a market are we looking at and how should we gear up how should our portfolios be ready for it yeah so my see I it is it is dependent on the fact how the corporate profits move if a company keeps making losses it is worth five bucks only whoever is BU buying it doesn't matter God comes to buy then also it is worth five rupes because it is making losses so if the earnings which is say Nifty earnings let's talk about broad so this year our guys are saying that we will earn anywhere between 980 to 990 975 something closer to th000 Bucks next to the forecast what they can see as an aggregate is about 1150 so they're saying about 15% earnings growth earnings growth is possible and now that could be in reality I mean generally things are going better than what they're saying so it could be 1170 1180 that as time comes they will revise I mean it also depends on rate cards and whole lot of things so but then trajectory of the earnings about 15% my multiple see it is p multiplied by earnings so earnings are this is outlook for the earnings P multiples are pretty rich at about 21 22 I would say that if it is uh say 20p so that gives me a a minimum of 23,000 and if it is 22 then you can do about uh another 3,000 so we might end up at 25,000 that is the most optimistic I would say the Outlook is clearly you know going up and up right now the momentum is positive PMI is positive everything is yeah looking good tax tax collection is very powerful every month you get the high speed data correct you know so tax collections are very strong in fact it is beating the government expectation revised by re estimates also so clearly everything is right now there is no reason to say that earnings are going to collapse so as we look at this wave where we are probably 2 three years into this bull market uh what is the the one lesson that you would want everyone to remember one is don't don't time the market it'll always give a lot of un necessarily there could be sharp correction they deeper correction stay invested have faith in this country's future and future of this Market it can give you pain for sure nobody can guarantee you a straight kind of thing but in last 40 years I have seen when things were not as good as what it is today uh things were not looking as rosy in 2000 or 92 and all still it has given 15% return compounded and you know power of compounding so better your investors know power of compounding first to Rel feel the future because future you can see only with the past the past has compounded for 15% for last 40 years I have no reason to believe to say it will be even 14 and a half I would say rather 15 and half because of optimism but I would say strict to 15 only or rather considered 14 okay and 15 means you saying every 5 years it will double every 5 years so let's live first five years that's index will double of course then you should do much better as an active participant so 22,000 will go to 44,000 next 5 years I would think in 5 years index should touch about anywhere between 4 to 45,000 all right so Pearls of Wisdom about Market investment coming in from Ram Agarwal all right with that we'll slip into a short breather on