Why Terry Smith Bought Adobe Stock? | $ADBE Analysis and Fair Value

요약 보기

Adobe(ADBE) 투자 매력도 분석 결과 현재가 기준 연 17% 내외 기대수익률 제시, 저평가 판단. 기업 지표: 시가총액 약 1,600억 달러, 주가는 1년간 약 520달러에서 342달러 수준으로 하락. 순부채 약 -15억 달러(순현금), 배당 없이 잉여현금흐름으로 성장 투자. ROIC 약 25%, ROA 약 17%로 효율성 높음. 사업 구조: 디지털미디어(Creative Cloud 등) 매출 약 33억 달러, 성장률 약 10%. 디지털 익스피리언스 부문 약 10억 달러, 전년 대비 약 14% 성장. 매출의 약 60%가 미국, 나머지 분산. 전문가 Terry Smith의 포트폴리오 약 3% 편입 종목이며 전환비용이 높은 것이 해자로 제시됨. 밸류에이션: 잉여현금흐름 수익률(FCF yield) 현재 약 5%, 3년 평균 약 3.2%로 평가. 이 지표 기준 공정가치 약 540달러, 상승여력 약 57%로 제시. 수익률 분해: FCF 수익률 약 5% + 자사주 매입 약 1% + 마진 개선 약 0.5% + FCF 성장률 약 10.7%(향후 2년 애널리스트 추정) = 연 약 17%. 리스크: 최근 5년 평균 FCF 성장률 약 16% 대비 성장 둔화. 성장률 둔화 시 FCF 배수 하락으로 주가 하락 가능성. 성장주 투자의 일반적 위험 언급. 결론: 영상은 ADBE가 저평가 상태이며 연 약 17% 수익을 기대할 수 있다고 판단하나, 성장 둔화 리스크를 함께 언급.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. in this video we are looking at Adobe stock ticker adbe the goal of this video is to determine kind of return an investor can expect if invested at the current price level so first we will look at some of the numbers of adobe how Adobe makes money their main sources of revenue we will look at some of the ratios return on assets return as the capital of their current debt level we will look at their current valuation we will use free cash to yield as a valuation metric and then in the end we will look at what kind of return we can expect from the stock so we will make free cash flow projections for the next two years so let's get started first of all if you have investment ideas or you want to make a deeper dive on super investors portfolios please write in the comments below okay Adobe is a stock that is owned by Terry Smith around three percent of his portfolio is in Adobe so we will look at some of the ratios that Terry Smith uses in his analysis but first let's look at some of the numbers of adobe their current market cap is around 160 billion for the last year the price is down from close to 520 to close to 342 at the moment of running the video if you look at their debt level we can see that they have more cash than that so they have minus 1.5 billion of net debt they are not paying a dividend which is actually maybe a very positive thing so they use free cash flow to grow you also don't have to pay taxes on the dividend so for growth companies like Adobe this is actually a very positive thing if I look at the return on assets and return investor Capital which Terry Smith uses in his analysis we can see that the business is highly effective they have very high return versus capital of close to 25 percent and return on assets are close to 17 okay how Adobe makes money if you look at the risk and thank you report we can see that they have revenue of close to 4.5 billion and they have two main segments digital media which includes Creative Cloud which also includes products like Adobe Photoshop Adobe Illustrator I personally use them before if you start using them it's very unlikely that you will switch to other products so this is the source of their mode their switching costs are extremely high and this segment brought around 3.3 billion of Revenue in the previous quarter the growth rate in this segment is around 10 percent the other segment digital experience which includes other services brought around 1 billion in the previous quarter and it grew around 14 year over year if you look at the revenue by country the most Revenue comes from America segment but the revenue is also Diversified so around 40 percent comes from other segments but again the most of the revenue comes from America segment we also can see that they're buying back the shares the average rate is around one percent as Warren Buffett famously said if they keep doing that I will be the last shareholder okay now let's look at their valuation we do not want to overpay for the stock we will use free cash flow yield as evaluation metric a very similar metric is used by Terry Smith and his analysis so this is the next 12 month free cash flow divided by current market cap if you look at their chart or free cash flow yield for the last three years we can see that currently it's around five percent while the average is around 3.2 percent so according to this metric the stock offers more than 50 upside so the stock is significantly undervalued according to this metric and the fair value of the stock is around 540 dollars per share the upside is around 57 according to this metric okay so Adobe has higher originality capital it's buying back the shares it has high quality free cash flow according to free cash flow yield metric the stock seems to be undervalued what kind of return we can expect from the stock first let's make free cash flow projections so in two years according to analysts the free cash flow will be close to 9 billion right now the free cash flow is around 7.6 billion so this implies the growth rate of around 10.7 percent if we also include five years before this date the average growth rate was around 16 so the growth rate is slowing down so the growth rate of adobe was much higher and I believe this is one of the risks investing in Adobe so if the growth rate is lower the free cash flow multiple that it trades at may also be lower as a result the stock will trade lower so this is one of the risks investing in growth companies okay so we looked at free cash flow projections for the next two years the average growth rate as we saw is around 10.7 percent so let's calculate the total return an average investor could get if invested in Adobe So currently free cash flow yield is around five percent we add the shares BuyBacks which are around one percent we add margin expansion which is around half a percent so if the business is getting more efficient they have higher margins as a result they get more free cash flow and as we saw the free cash flow growth rate for the next two years is projected to be close to 10.7 percent according to analysis so the total return is around 17 so 17 is the average return an investor could get investing in Adobe okay Adobe has a white mode the source of their mode their competitive Advantage I believe are switching costs so it's very hard to learn new products that's why the switching costs are extremely high their business model is highly effective they have higher Cinemas Capital High return assets Adobe is a stock that is owned by teresmith so it's a very positive sign that super investors are buying or holding the same stock that we're researching if we use free cash flow yield measure the shares are currently undervalued around 50 percent undervalued and the average return an investor could get over the next two years is around 17 percent so that includes five percent from free cash flow yield currently one percent from shares BuyBacks half a percent from margin expansion and 10 growth rate of free cash flow so the average return and then investor could get is around 17 percent also if you want to know more about other stocks that were purchased by super investors here's the video if you are not subscribed to the channel you can just by pressing the button right here you will not miss a single new video thank you very much for watching till the end and see you in the next video