저자: LiLu · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 영상은 Li Lu의 2022년 4분기 포트폴리오 변화와 구글(GOOGL) 추가 매수를 분석하며, FCF 멀티플 기준 약 50% 상승 여력을 제시한다. 포트폴리오 구성: 리루(Li Lu)는 집중 투자형으로 보유 종목이 6개(알파벳 A·C주 포함 시 실질 5개)이며, 최근 분기 구글 주식을 대폭 추가했다. 구글 매수 규모: 구글(알파벳 A·C)이 포트폴리오의 약 1/4을 차지하는 고확신 베팅이다. 매수 가격: 직전 분기 구글 최저가가 주당 약 83달러였고, 실제 매수가는 이보다 높았을 가능성이 크다. 기존 밸류에이션: 잉여현금흐름(FCF) 수익률법과 주당순이익(EPS) 할인법으로 주가가 약 30% 저평가된 것으로 나왔다. FCF 멀티플 분석: 애널리스트 추정 기준 2년 뒤 FCF가 약 840억 달러, 현재 트레일링 12개월 FCF 멀티플은 약 22배다. 목표 시가총액: 22배를 적용하면 시가총액 약 1.8조 달러가 예상되며, 현재 약 1.2조 달러 대비 약 53% 상승 여력이다. 적정 주가: 이 방법으로 약 140달러로 산출되며, 영상 촬영 시점 주가는 약 94달러다. 리스크/전제: 제시된 상승 여력은 애널리스트 FCF 추정치와 멀티플 22배 유지에 의존한다. 매수 가격·추정치 정확도에 대한 불확실성이 있다. 출연자 전망: 구글의 현재 밸류에이션, 미래 성장률, 넓은 해자(wide moat)가 리루의 추가 매수 이유로 제시되었다. 기타: 세스 클라만(Seth Klarman) 등 다른 슈퍼인베스터의 구글 보유 사례도 언급되었다.
다듬은 글
in this video we're looking at the portfolio update of lilu lilu is one of the famous super investors that I follow it is the middle of February and it is possible to see what super investors bought or sold during the fourth quarter of 2022 and I know that lilu is long only investor he has a very concentrated portfolio watching his lectures I know that one of his core ideas is that we're buying not a piece of paper but a piece of the business and we should analyze stocks like a business so he has only several stocks so in this video we're looking at his portfolio and we will look at his main addition in the previous quarter he added Google Seth clarman one of the famous super investors that I follow also added Google and his portfolio in the previous quarter so we will look how the portfolio of lilu looks like after the purchase at what approximate price lilu added his shares of Google and then in the end we will look at some of the numbers of Google previously we used two valuation metrics in this video we will also use another method the free catch the multiple method so let's get started first of all if you want to get updates about the portfolios of super investors lilu Seth clarman Ray dalio Terry Smith and many others you can subscribe by pressing the Subscribe button under the video okay so let's look at the current portfolio of lilu so this is the portfolio after the fourth quarter we can see that he has only six stocks so technically he has six stocks but alphabet has two classes of shares Class A shares and Class C shares so lilu bought both classes of shares so he has only five stocks in his portfolio and during the recent quarter he made a significant addition of Google stock so after the purchase if we can buy Class A shares and Class C shares almost a quarter of his portfolio isn't Google stock so a very high conviction bet we don't know the exact price lilu paid for Google stock in the previous quarter but we know that the minimum price during the previous quarter was close to 83 dollars per share so it is very likely that he bought even higher but this was the minimum price so previously we used two valuation metrics we used free cash flow yield method and we used discounted earnings per share method according to these metrics the stock was around 30 percent undervalued if we use another method e if we use the free cash the multiple method so according to analyst projections that I was able to find for Google the free cash flow in two years will be close to 84 billion their current free cash to multiple this is trailing 12 month free cash flow multiple is around 22 so again this is 12 month free cash flow multiple market cap divided by free cash flow so it's around 22 so let's make the projections again if free cash flow in two years is around 84 billion if we use the free cash to multiple of 22 the projected market cap is close to 1.8 trillion the current market cap is 1.2 trillion so this represents around 53 upside so according to this method the stock offers around 50 upside and the fair value of the stock is close to 140 dollars per share so a very significant upside from the current price of around 94 dollars per share which is the current price at the moment of running the video so Google's current valuation their future growth rate and their wide unquestionable mode maybe one of the reasons why Lulu decided to add his position in Google other purchases of Seth glorman here's the video if you are not subscribed to the channel you can just
Comments 0