저자: TerrySmith · 외국인
요약 보기
테리 스미스의 2022년 3분기 13F 포트폴리오 변화를 분석한 영상이다. 결론: 페이팔은 약 40% 축소, 오티스 월드와이드는 신규 편입한 주요 추가 종목으로 소개된다. 포트폴리오 개요: 스미스는 약 20개 핵심 종목에 집중 투자하며, 나머지 종목은 전체의 2% 미만이다. 오티스는 포트폴리오의 약 2%를 차지한다. 페이팔: 금융서비스 섹터, 시가총액 약 1,000억 달러. 3분기 최고가 약 100달러 부근이며 스미스가 그 근처에서 매도했을 가능성이 언급된다. 순부채 약 5억 달러, 배당 없음, ROIC 약 7%. 매출총이익률 약 43%로 하락 추세, 영업이익률 약 14%도 하락. 후행 12개월 잉여현금흐름 배수 약 18배, 향후 12개월 FCF 수익률 약 6%. 성장률 둔화가 보이며, 매도 이유는 밸류에이션보다 펀더멘털 문제일 가능성이 제기되고 1월 연례 서한에서 이유를 확인할 수 있다고 본다. 오티스 월드와이드: 산업재 섹터, 엘리베이터 제조. 시가총액 약 320억 달러. 3분기 최저가 약 64달러 부근에서 매수했을 가능성이 언급된다. 순부채 약 58억 달러, 배당수익률 약 1.4%, 배당성향 약 35%로 50% 미만이 양호하다고 평가. 자기자본 음수로 ROIC가 약 57%로 과대 계산되어 ROA 약 13%가 더 적절하다고 설명. 매출총이익률 약 28% 안정, 영업이익률 약 15%로 상승. 후행 FCF 배수 약 26배, 향후 12개월 FCF 수익률 약 5%. 분사(스핀오프) 기업으로 데이터가 2년치뿐이다. 스핀오프 관점: 연구상 스핀오프는 모회사와 S&P500을 상회하는 경향이 있다고 언급된다. 리스크/조건: 스미스의 실제 매수·매도 가격은 알 수 없고 분기 고저가로 추정한 것이다. 매도·매수 이유는 연례 서한 확인 전까지 불확실하다.
다듬은 글
in this video we are looking at the portfolio of Terry Smith it is the middle of November and right now it is possible to see what super investors bought during the third quarter of 2022 and Terry Smith is a famous British investor that I follow he managed to beat the S P 500 so it is really interesting to see what stock he bought and what stock he sold during the previous quarter so we will look at what approximate price he bought or sold these stocks and then have a look at some of the fundamentals of these stocks so let's get started first of all if you want to get updates about the portfolios of super investors or you have other stock investment ideas please write in the comments below okay Tara Smith is a super investor from Britain that I follow he managed to be the S P 500 he is the author of the book investing for growth which compiles his annual letter to shareholders highly recommend to read it a lot of valuable insights so right now it is the middle of November and it is possible to see what super investors bought during the previous quarter so if a fund has more than 100 million in assets he has to disclose what stocks he owns through 13f filings so to see what stocks own by super investors you can use the Edgar search on the ssc.gov you type the name of the fund which you have to know in advance the other choice is to use services like data Roma which compiles this information in much more simpler way so if we look at the portfolio of Terry Smith we can see that his portfolio is centered around 20 core positions so he has other stocks but they represent less than two percent of his part folio so what I'm interested at at his high conviction bets and if we sort his portfolio buy changes to portfolio we can see that his main addition was autist worldwide it represents close to two percent of his portfolio while PayPal still represents two percent of his portfolio but he reduced his position close to 40 percent so next let's look at these two stocks PayPal and Otis worldwide okay first let's look at PayPal we can see that it's from the financial services sector the market cap is close to 100 billion we don't know at what price Terry Smith sold his shares in PayPal but we know that the maximum price during the third quarter was close to 100 per share it is very likely that he sold lower but this was the maximum price so I believe that the investor is so good that he was able to sell at the maximum price if you look at some of the numbers of PayPal we can see that it has close to 10.8 billion in cash and close to 11.4 billion in debt this includes long-term debt and short-term debt so the net debt is close to 500 million they don't pay a dividend and they have returned invested capital of close to 7 percent so Terry Smith uses return on invest Capital as a measure how good is the company they also have gross margins of close to 43 percent we can see that the gross margins are decreasing for the last years and we also can see the operating margins at close to 14 which are also decreasing compared to the previous years if you look at some of the evaluation metrics we can see that they have price to free cash flow of close to 18.
so this is trailing 12 month price to free cash flow Terry Smith uses free cash flow yield as evaluation metric so this is the vice versa of this metric if we look at the next 12 month free cash flow yield we can see that currently it is close to six percent so previously for PayPal we saw much higher growth rate and right now the growth rate is slowing down so this is visible in their numbers but personally I believe the reason why he reduced his position in PayPal wasn't evaluation usually it's something in the company's fundamentals so it will be very interesting to read his annual letter to shareholders which is usually available in January so it will be very interesting to read the reasoning why he reduced his position in PayPal okay while he reduced his position in PayPal artists worldwide is his main addition we can see that it's from the industrial sector they produce elevators their market cap is close to 32 billion the lowest price during the third quarter was close to 64 dollars per share it is very likely that he bought even higher but again this was the minimum price I believe that super investor is so good that he was able to purchase the shares at the lowest price during the quarter but again it is very likely that he bought even higher we can see that they have net debt of close to 5.8 billion they are paying a dividend of close to 1.4 percent they have a payout ratio of close to 35 percent which is lower than 50 which is something I want to see in a dividend stock if you look at the return and invested Capital we can see it is close to 57 percent what is return invest Capital it is net income divided by Capital which is equity plus debt and we can see that Otis has negative equity so this is why they have such a higher autonomous Capital so maybe return invest Capital isn't the best metric in this case maybe we can use return on assets which is close to 13 percent we also can see that they have stable gross margins of close to 28 percent and even increasing operating margins of close to 15 percent if you look at some of the evaluation metrics we can see that they have price to free cash flow of close to 26.
again this is 12 month free cash flow if you look at the free cash flow yield next 12 month free cash flow yield we can see that it is close to five percent or this is a spin-off so that is why the data is available only for two years okay we looked at PayPal so PayPal is a stock that he reduced his position around 40 during the previous quarter we looked at orders worldwide his main addition during the previous quarter this is the new stock that he bought it will be very interesting to read his annual letter to shareholders when he describes his logic behind his purchases so usually it's available in January so approximately in one and a half months also all this is a spin-off and there is a research that shows that spin-offs tend to outperform both their parent company and the S P 500 so here is the video if you are not subscribed to the channel you can do this by pressing the button right here you will not miss a single new video thank you very much for watching till the end and see you in the next video
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