Terry Smith Portfolio Update – Sold Starbucks $BUX, Added $MTD - 13F Filings

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Terry Smith의 2022년 2분기 13F 공시 기준 포트폴리오 변화를 분석한 영상이다. 결론: 스타벅스(SBUX) 전량 매도가 가장 큰 변화이며, 메틀러 톨레도(MTD) 추가 매수가 주요 편입 확대이다. 포트폴리오 개요: Terry Smith 포트폴리오는 20개 핵심 종목이 전체의 50% 이상을 차지하며, 13F 공시를 통해 분기별 변화를 확인할 수 있다고 설명한다. 스타벅스 매도: 2분기 중 매도했으며 매도 추정가는 최고 약 90달러 수준이다. 시가총액은 1,000억 달러 이상, 순차입금은 약 210억 달러로 잉여현금흐름의 약 5배라 부담 요인으로 지적했다. 애널리스트 성장률 전망 약 7.6%, PER 25배 기준 적정가 약 62달러로 계산되어 약 30% 고평가로 평가했다. 메틀러 톨레도 매수: 2분기 저점 기준 약 1,100달러 이상에 매수한 것으로 추정했다. 시가총액 약 300억 달러, 순부채 약 18억 달러로 재무 부담은 크지 않다고 봤다. 애널리스트 성장률 약 18%를 가정하면 적정가 약 1,800달러로 약 35% 상승 여력이 있다고 계산했으나, 성장률은 재검증이 필요하다고 덧붙였다. 방법론 및 리스크: 현재 PER과 현재 성장률 기반 단순 계산이며, 실제 매수·매도가는 정확히 알 수 없다고 명시했다. 업종 평균 PER 비교 기능 등 분석 도구 개선 아이디어도 언급했다. 출연자 전망: 발표자는 Terry Smith를 우량 투자자로 평가하며 포트폴리오 참고를 권하나, 특정 종목에 대한 명시적 방향 전망은 제시하지 않았다.

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01. in this video we will look at the portfolio update of terry smith it's the middle of august and right now we can see the 13 filings for the second quarter of 2022 so it is possible to see what super investors bought or sold in the second quarter of 2022 and terry smith is a famous super investor that i follow so first we will look at his overall portfolio his portfolio is centered around 20 core positions we will look at what stocks he sold during the quarter and what stocks he bought and thirdly we will look at one his main edition medler toledo international and one stock that he completely sold it is starbucks so we will briefly look at their fundamentals and see at what price terry smith bought or sold these positions so let's get started first of all if you want to get updates about the portfolio of terry smith you can subscribe to the channel by pressing the subscribe button under the video you will not miss a single new video okay terry smith is a famous british investor that i follow he is the author of the book investing for growth which compiles his annual letter to shareholders for the last 10 years he also managed to outperform the s p 500 so it's really interesting to see what stocks he bought and what stocks he sold during the last quarter and right now it is possible to see what super investors bought or sold during the second quarter if a fund has more than 100 million in assets it's obligated to list what stocks he owns so it is possible to determine what changes were made to the portfolio of course you can see this info directly using ssc.gov using the edgar search or you can use services like dataroma which is much more easy to use okay we can see that the portfolio of terry smith is centered around 20 core positions he has other stocks but these 20 stocks represent more than 50 percent of his portfolio so what were the main changes to his portfolio during the last quarter if we sort his stocks by the change to portfolio we can see that he sold starbucks so this was the biggest change to his portfolio we also can see that his main edition was medler toledo international so right now we will look at these two companies first we will look at what price terry smith bought or sold approximate price that terry smith bought or sold these stocks then we will briefly look at their fundamentals and then we'll try to come up with their fair value we are building a tool to make fundamental analysis much easier so we will use this tool also if you have some additions what would you like to see in this tool please write in the comments below okay first let's look at starbucks we know that terry smith sold the stock between april and the end of june so the highest price was close to 90 dollars per share i believe that terry smith is so good that he was able to sell the stock at the highest possible price but it's also very likely that he sold much lower we can see that its market cap is more than 100 billion we can see that it has net borrowings of close to 21 billion if we compare that to free cash flow it is around five times free cash flow so that might be an issue analysts are projecting for the growth rate to be around seven point six percent right now the current price to earnings is 25 if we make the calculation of fair value we get the fair value of around 62 dollars per share which implies that the current upside is negative 30 percent so according to this metric the stock seems to be overvalued okay we briefly looked at starbucks we saw that if we use discounted earnings per share method the stock seems to be overvalued around 30 overvalued and the highest price that terry smith was able to sell the stock was close to ninety dollars per share also we don't know the exact price the price might be much lower but ninety dollars per share is the highest price that it was during the last quarter now let's look at his main edition medler toledo international we can see that the lowest price during the second quarter was close to eleven hundred so terry smith was able to purchase the shares at 1100 or higher we can see that the market cap is close to 30 billion we also can see that they have that net debt of 1.8 billion if we compare that to their earnings that not seems to be an issue if we look at their valuation analysts are projecting for the growth rate to be close to 18 percent so if we do a deeper dive on metal toledo we need to double check the growth rate if we use the current price to earnings we get the fair value of close to 1800 which implies an upside of close to 35 percent so if we use discounted earnings per share method we get the upside of close to 35 percent okay we briefly looked at mettler tolerator international if we use the current growth rate and current price to earnings we get the upside of around 35 percent but if we do a deeper dive on this company we need to double check the growth rate so we saw the portfolio of terry smith we saw his main edition and we saw the stock that he sold also it will be very interesting to read his annual letter to shareholders when he describes his purchases so if you are following terry smith it is possible to make changes to your portfolio also when using the tool when we saw the price to earnings what i really like to see is the average priced earnings for the industry for example to take all the stocks from the s p 500 take the stocks only from the healthcare industry get the average price to earnings and compare that to the company we can do that for other evaluation metrics so i believe it will be nice addition to this tool also if you have other ideas what can be added to this tool please write in the comments below if you want to know more how terry smith selects his stocks here is the video if you are not subscribed to the channel you can just press the subscribe button right here you will not miss a single new video thank you very much for watching to the end and see you in the next video