Why Terry Smith Bought Adobe Stock – Risks & 22% Upside Potential - $ADBE

요약 보기

Adobe(ADBE) 적정가치 분석 영상이며 결론은 현재가에서는 매수하지 않고 더 낮아질 때까지 기다리겠다는 것이다. 영상은 Terry Smith가 Adobe에 약 3% 비중으로 투자한 점에 주목하며 시작한다. 그는 장기 보유형 투자자로 알려져 있다. 재무 현황: 시가총액 약 1,930억 달러, 최근 1년 주가 약 19% 하락, 최근 5년 약 187% 상승(연평균 약 20%). 매출의 약 93%가 구독 매출이며 구독 매출은 전분기 대비 약 10% 성장했다. 크리에이티브 클라우드가 주요 매출원이고 미국 지역이 매출의 57%, EMEA가 27%를 차지한다. 리스크: 인플레이션과 거시 변수, 기술주 특성상 높은 성장률이 주가에 선반영되어 있어 성장률 둔화 시 멀티플 하락 가능, 태블릿 등 모바일 환경 대응 실패 우려, 무료 대체 소프트웨어 확산 위험. 연구개발비는 전분기 대비 약 10% 증가했다. 재무 비율: 현금 47억 달러, 부채 46억 달러, 잉여현금흐름 68억 달러이며 배당은 없다. ROA 18.58%, ROE 13.5%, ROIC 26.18%로 경제적 해자(moat)가 존재한다고 평가했고, 전환 비용이 높은 점을 근거로 든다. 적정가치: 할인 EPS 모델은 주당 493달러(약 20% 상승여력), FCF 수익률 모델은 주당 502달러(약 21% 상승여력), 두 방법 평균 주당 498달러로 제시했다. 단 성장률이 14% 아래로 떨어지면 가치가 하락하는 민감도 리스크를 강조했다. 결론: 진행자는 안전마진 20%로는 부족하다고 보고 현재가에서는 매수하지 않으며 더 낮아지길 기다린다고 밝혔다. 예측 발언 요약: Adobe 주가에 대해 '단기 방향' 예측은 명시되지 않았고, 현재가 기준 매수 보류(관망)이며 적정가치 대비 약 20% 상승여력을 제시했다. 해당 자산의 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언은 없다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. in this video we will look at adobe first we will look at their quarterly report we will look at some of the numbers and then we will try to come up with a fair value of adobe stock using the discounted earnings method and the free cash flow yield method ultimately we will decide if adobe is a good purchase at this price level subscribe button on the idea of researching adobe came to me when terry smith famous british investor that i follow entered a significant position in adobe as we can see after the purchase he has around three percent of his portfolio in adobe and fundamentals and what kind of valuation adobe has terry smith ipiles 10 years of his annual letter to shareholders he's a long only long-term investor and he very rarely buys and sells stock fundamentals adobe has we are building a tool that will help us to analyze stocks and get the fair value very quickly the data is pulled automatically from multiple sources we can see that adobe has 193 billion market cap it is down around 19 for the last year it is up 187 for the last five years the average compounded annual growth rate is around 20 okay if we look at the recent quarter of the report we can see that the most revenue comes from subscription-based services so around 93 of the revenue comes from subscriptions and the subscription revenue grew around 10 from the previous quarter if we look further we can see that the most revenue brings creative cloud basically if you use creative cloud you get access to programs like adobe illustrator adobe photoshop we can see that 57 of the revenue comes from america's segment and 27 comes from europe middle east and africa segment so more than half of the revenue brings america segment if we look at some of the risk factors we can see that among the usual suspects like higher inflation or the impact of corvette we know that adobe is from technology sector and technology is changing pretty fast as we will see in future analysis a high growth rate is priced in into the stock and if the growth rate will be slower in coming years it will trade at lower multiple as a result it may decline further in price for example a lot of users are using tablet devices and if adobe fail to adjust their business model to use tablet devices it will hugely impact their growth rate i know that a lot of small startups are using free software they do not use photoshop or illustrator they are using free similar software so i see it as a major risk investing in technology companies in adobe particular that is why adobe is spending and increasing their spendings on research and development as we can see it is up around 10 from the previous quarter okay now let's look at some of the ratios we will look at their debt level we will look at their growth rate and numbers indicating their competitive advantage their moat okay if we look at some of the ratios we can see that they have 4.7 billion in cash we can see that they have close to 4.6 billion in debt that seems not to be an issue if we consider that they have 6.8 billion of free cash flow they don't pay a dividend if we look at their competitive advantage we can see that they have return on assets of 18.58 what is return on assets it is net income divided by assets they have 13.5 percent return on equity it is net income divided by total assets minus total liabilities if we look at the return on invested capital which is a metric that terry smith looks at when he research his stocks it is net income divided by equity plus debt we can see that it is 26.18 these numbers are indicating that adobe definitely has a mode if we look at the growth rate we can see that it was from 13 to 20 for the last five years the average compound growth rate was close to 20 percent okay so we looked at some of the ratios we can see that that seems not to be an issue they don't pay a dividend and they definitely have a moat now let's try to come up with a fair value of adobe stock first we will use the discounted earnings per share method we saw that the growth rate was around 15 to 20 percent so analysts are projecting for the growth rate to be around 14 so this seems reasonable in our calculation we will use the current price to earnings what we basically do is we take current earnings per share grow them using the growth rate multiply by future price to earnings and discount them back today using the required rate of return of 10 after adjusting for net debt we get the fair value of 493 dollars per share which implies around 20 upside we also need to consider that if we use lower growth rate lower than 14 percent the price to earnings will also be lower as a result the price will be lower because of the lower growth rate and lower priced earnings so this is the risk of investing in high growth companies if we use another valuation metric which is similar to what terry smith uses in his analysis if we use the free cash flow yield method we can see that the last or current free cash flow yield is 3.9 the free cash flow yield is next 12 month free cash flow divided by market cap so the last is 3.9 while the average for the last five years is 3.17 as a result we get the fair value from this method of 502 which implies around 21 upside if we take the average between the two methods we get the average fair value of 498 dollars per share okay i like the fact that terry smith bought the stock even at higher price even at lower for cash flow yield i like the fact that it has a subscription based model i like the fact that it definitely has a moat if you start using adobe products if you learn how to use them it is very time consuming to learn new software so that is why the switching costs are extremely high and that is why adobe has a huge mode we also need to consider that it is a 200 billion dollar company and it is growing at more than 10 growth rate so if the growth rate will be lower the price will be much lower so i believe this is the main risk investing in adobe for me i would like to have a higher margin of safety than 20 so i'm not a buyer at this price level i would like to see it lower before i consider purchasing it also i have made a video on which tech stocks offers the most upside potential just ill the end and see you in the next video