저자: TerrySmith · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 테리 스미스의 13F 공시 분석 결과 J&J를 거의 전량 매도하고 Adobe, Mettler-Toledo를 신규 매수했으며, 영상은 세 종목의 밸류에이션을 비교해 저평가 여부를 판단한다. 13F 공시 내용: 테리 스미스는 J&J(JNJ) 지분을 거의 전부 매도했고, 마이크로소프트는 약 20% 축소했으며, Adobe와 Mettler-Toledo를 새로 매수했다. 다만 MSFT는 여전히 포트폴리오의 약 10%를 차지해 강한 약세 신호로 보기 어렵다고 설명한다. 매도 배경 추정: 영상은 더 나은 투자처가 생겼거나 사업 악화가 있을 때 전량 매도하는 그의 스타일을 근거로 들며, J&J 매도 이유를 밸류에이션 관점에서 살핀다. J&J 분석: 시가총액 약 4,640억 달러, 배당수익률 2.4%, ROE 26%, 최근 1년 주가 횡보. 애널리스트 성장률 4.6% 가정 시 적정가 주당 136달러로 현재가 대비 약 22% 고평가로 계산. FCF 수익률 5.2%는 평균 5.4%와 유사해 자체 역사 대비 고평가·저평가는 뚜렷하지 않다고 본다. Mettler-Toledo 분석: 시총 약 270억 달러, 의료기기, 배당 없음, 해자 있음. 최근 1년 횡보, 5년 상승. 애널리스트 향후 5년 성장률 17%를 현실적이라고 가정하면 약 34% 상방이 있을 것으로 보며, FCF 수익률 3.1%는 평균 2.67%보다 높아 저평가 신호로 해석된다. Adobe 분석: 시총 약 1,880억 달러, IT 섹터, 최근 1년 하락, 배당 없음, 해자 강함. 향후 5년 성장률 14% 가정 시 순부채 조정 적정가 481달러, 약 21% 상방. FCF 수익률 약 4%는 최근 3년 평균 2.9%보다 높아 역사 대비 저평가로 본다. 조건/리스크: 성장률 가정(JNJ 4.6%, MTD 17%, ADBE 14%)이 실현되지 않으면 밸류에이션 결론이 달라질 수 있다. 영상 내 종목별 투자 판단은 분석 도구 계산 결과에 근거한 참고 의견이다. 출연자 전망: 종목별로 Adobe와 MTD를 저평가로, JNJ는 고평가로 보는 시각이 드러나며, 테리 스미스의 장기 보유 성향상 매도·매수 신호를 과도하게 해석하지 않아야 한다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
in this video we will look at portfolio of terry smith he's a famous british investor that i follow he has a great track record of beating the s p 500 in the recent quarter he sold johnson johnson he sold almost all of his position ticker jnj he also trimmed microsoft and he bought two new stocks so in this video we will briefly look at the fundamentals of johnson johnson we will try to determine the reason why he sold his position in jnj and we also briefly look at to his recent additions in the middle of may we can see what super investors bought in the first quarter of 2022 and terry smith is a super investor that i follow he has a great track record of beating the s p 500 additions he have and what he sold in this recent quarter so i know that he's a long-term investor he very rarely sells and buys stocks so for me it is really interesting to see what kind of stocks he added and what he sold so this is from their 13f filing you can open it using the edgar search you type the name of the fund in this case fund fund smith if a fund owns more than 100 million he has to disclose what he bought and what he sold so the fund has to disclose all his positions after 45 days after the quarter ends so terry smith manages around 30 billion so after 45 days after the quarter you have to disclose what positions he has there is a much simpler way to do that instead of searching the edgar search on the ssc.gov you can use services like that aroma so according to his 13f's filings he sold almost all his shares of johnson johnson ticker jnj he has trimmed 20 of his stake in microsoft and he also added two new stocks he added adobe and mtd so he sold almost all his shares of johnson johnson he usually does that if he finds something better or if he sees the deterioration of the business in case of microsoft he trimmed only 20 of his position so i do not see it as a huge indicator that he is bearish on microsoft he still owns around 10 of his portfolio in microsoft so we will concentrate on the sale of johnson johnson and the purchase of adobe and mettler toledo international we are building a tool that will help us to determine the key ratios and will help us to determine its intrinsic value so we will run the calculation for each of these three companies okay first we will look at johnson and johnson okay so we punch in the ticker jnj we can see that it's from the healthcare sector it has a 464 billion market cap we can see that the price is almost flat for the recent year if you want to make a deeper dive on any of these companies please write in the comments below that seems not to be an issue it pays a dividend of 2.4 percent it has a payout ratio 56 it definitely has a mode it has a return on equity of 26 if we look at some of the valuation metrics we can see the growth rate for the last five years around five percent so if we look at the intrinsic value of the stock we can see that analysts are projecting for the growth rate to be around 4.6 percent for the next five years if we use the current price to earnings we can see the intrinsic or fair value of the stock of 136 dollars per share which implies that the stock around 22 overvalued okay terry smith uses free cash flow yield as a valuation metric if we look at the current free cash flow yield of johnson johnson we can see that the current or last free cash flow yield is 5.2 percent while the average is 5.4 so it is very close to its average free cash flow yield so it doesn't seem to be undervalued or overvalued according to its own history okay so now we will compare it to another stock mettler toledo international it is also from the healthcare industry so it is possible that he changed johnson johnson to meteor toledo okay so we punch in the ticker mtd we can see that it is also from the health care sector you can see that it is a much smaller company around 27 billion it produces medical devices we can see that it gone almost nowhere for the last year it is significantly up for the last five years we see that the debt seems not to be an issue for mtd it doesn't pay a dividend it definitely has a mode according to these numbers the average growth rate was around five ten percent for the last five years but analysts are projecting for the growth rate for the next five years to be around 17 if we do a deeper dive on this company we have to determine if the growth rate of 17 is reasonable if it is reasonable then the stock seems to be undervalued and offers around 34 upside okay if we compare the free cash flow yield of mtd mettler toledo international 2 johnson johnson we can see that the last free cash flow yield for mtd was 3.1 while the average was 2.67 so compared to its own history the stock seems to be trading above its average for cash flow yield so the stock seems to be undervalued the free cash flow yield is high almost it was in 2020 so it has a much higher for cash flow yield compared to its average compared to johnson johnson and his second edition is adobe i have used adobe photoshop adobe illustrator so it definitely has a mode if you worked in photoshop it takes so much time to know and study another software so the switching costs are extremely high okay let's briefly look at adobe's fundamentals okay we punch in the ticker and dbe we can see that is 188 billion market cap it's from technology sector the stock is down for the last year we can see that that not seems to be an issue doesn't pay a dividend it definitely has a moat and it's visible in their numbers analysts are projecting for the growth rate to be around 14 for the next five years if we use the growth rate of 14 and the price to earnings current price to earnings of 39.58 we get the net debt adjusted fair value of 481 dollars per share which implies around 21 upside so adobe seems to be undervalued according to this metric if we look at the free cash flow yield which terry smith uses as a valuation metric we can see that currently it is close to four percent while the average for the last three years was 2.9 so adobe seems to be undervalued compared to its own history so knowing his investment style we can determine the reasoning behind his purchases okay so tara smith sold almost all his shares in johnson johnson he added two new stocks so this is how his portfolio is looking right now so he trimmed other positions but the decrease wasn't as significant as johnson johnson so i do not believe that he is bearish on these stocks okay s additions his portfolio had in the recent quarter also i have made a video on the investment style of terry smith
Comments 0