Central Banks Will Unleash Inflation and Gold is Headed Above $5,000 Says Peter Schiff (Part 1)

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결론: 피터 쉬프는 중앙은행의 통화 남발로 금 강세장이 이제 막 시작됐으며 금값이 장기적으로 5,000달러 이상까지 갈 수 있다고 주장한다. 금 상승의 배경: 연준의 금리 인하 자체보다 전 세계 중앙은행의 통화정책 실수가 핵심 동인이다. 정부가 발행하는 법정화폐 대체물이 과다 생산되어 인플레이션을 유발하고 자산 버블을 떠받치며 있지도 않은 돈을 쓰기 위해 금리를 인위적으로 억제한다는 논리다. 이것이 법정화폐 가치를 훼손해 사람들이 금 같은 대안을 찾게 만든다고 본다. 투자자 인식: 투자자들이 아직 지나치게 안일하며 중앙은행을 과신하고 있다고 평가한다. 특히 미국의 처지를 제대로 인식하지 못하고 달러 등 법정화폐의 구매력 상실 규모와 중앙은행이 풀 인플레이션의 크기를 과소평가한다고 지적한다. 금 가격 전망(금): 2001년 300달러 아래에서 시작한 장기 상승 추세를 설명한다. 2011년 1,900달러 고점 이후 1,000달러 부근까지 조정받았으나 1,000달러 아래로 다시 내려간 적은 없다고 말한다. 최근 몇 년의 횡보(공고화)가 돌파되는 초기 단계로 보며, 장기적으로 5,000달러를 넘어 그보다 훨씬 높이 갈 것이라고 전망한다(단기 구체 목표가 없음). 1,000달러 재하락을 기다리는 매수 대기자는 영원히 매수하지 못할 것이라고 비판한다. 은(Silver) 전망: 금/은 비율이 사상 최고 수준(1온스 금당 은 93온스 이상)까지 벌어졌다가 최근 은이 금을 10거래일 연속 상회하며 비율이 되돌아서기 시작했다고 언급한다. 은의 바닥이 나왔을 수 있으며, 진정한 금 강세장에서는 은과 금광주가 금보다 더 오를 것으로 기대한다. 이 역시 강세 방향의 발언이다. 리스크/조건: 명시적 손절 조건이나 기간 한정은 없으며, 장기 견해가 중심이다. 출연자 전망: 금 및 은·금광주의 장기 강세를 전망하며, 기간은 장기다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. joining me today is Peter Schiff CEO of euro pacific capital peter you have come out saying the moves we have seen this summer and gold just marks the start of a longer bull trend and it doesn't have to do with the fed cutting rates so why is this time different well first of all I do think that the fed cutting rates as part of the reason that gold is going to be rally I mean it is the monetary policies and the mistakes that are being made not just by the Federal Reserve but by central banks all around the world that is driving the narrative for gold because gold is an alternative to all of these money substitutes that are being created by governments and the problem is they're creating too many they're you know creating a lot of inflation they're trying to sustain asset bubbles they're trying to make it possible for governments to keep on spending money they don't have and so to do that they need to artificially suppress interest rates and that destroys the value of these fiat currencies and that's what drives people to seek out a better alternative like gold well I remember when we spoke at the beginning of the year you said investors would start taking gold more seriously so is that also part of the equation are we seeing this happen well we're seeing the beginnings but I still think investors are much too complacent they have too much confidence in central banks they don't perceive the predicament that we are now in particularly the United States and they have no idea just how much value the dollar and other fiat currencies will lose in terms of purchasing power and how much inflation central banks are going to unleash if they did they would be buying a lot more gold and the price would be much higher than where it is now Peter you've been obviously a long-term Gold Bug and bull you know we've spoken about gold even possibly going to 5,000 an ounce is this the movement for you is this where it starts well I think it started a long time ago number gold started under $300 an ounce back in 2001 and so it got up to 1,900 in 2011 and that was the original you know stopping point we we backtracked down to just over a thousand we never actually got back below a thousand again I know there a lot of people that are waiting for gold to go back below a thousand so they can buy it they're never gonna buy if that's what they're waiting for but I do think that this is the beginning of the breakout of the consolidation that we've been in for the last several years but ultimately I think Gold's gonna go quite a bit higher than 5,000 it's hard to tell how much higher but it will go much higher what about silver Peter everyone's waiting for silver to follow suit here well we might have seen at the beginning of that you know we we saw silver fall to an all-time record low relative to gold I think you could buy at one point better than ninety three ounces of silver for one ounce of gold and that began to change I think we had ten days in a row that streak broke a couple of days ago but we had ten days where silver outperformed gold that hadn't happened for quite some time and so I think we may have seen the lows in silver in terms of gold and I think that's very good not only if you own silver but if you own gold because I do think that in a gold bull market a real gold bull market we would expect to see silver outperforming and in fact we would also expect to see gold stocks outperforming and that seems to be happening now too