저자: 짐로저스 · 외국인
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짐 로저스는 미중 무역전쟁이 결국 재점화되어 미국 경기 침체 시 트럼프가 외국 탓을 할 것이라며 강세장 종료 가능성을 경고한다. 미국 증시는 역사상 가장 긴 강세장을 기록 중이나 부채 누적으로 다음 약세장은 매우 심각할 것이며, 2019년 말까지는 괜찮을 수 있지만 2020년 가능성도 있다고 본다. 2007년 아이슬란드·아일랜드·베어스턴스·노던록·리먼 파산 순서처럼 위기는 주목받지 않는 곳에서 먼저 시작되며, 현재 라트비아·터키·베네수엘라 등에서 조짐이 보인다고 한다. 금: 과거 보유분은 계속 보유 중이나 최근 랠리에서 추가 매수는 하지 않고 있고, 버블이 형성되면 매도할 것이라 했다. 자녀에게 물려줄 보험으로서의 금 보유는 권장한다. 은: 역사적으로 금보다 더 저평가되어 있으나 심각한 붕괴 전까지 적극 매수하지 않겠다고 한다. 매수 현황: 폭락한 러시아 주식을 사고 있으며, 베네수엘라 투자를 원하나 미국 시민권자라 제약이 있다고 한다. 투자자에게는 매우 신중할 것을 당부하며, 일부 숏 포지션은 있으나 공매도는 하지 않는다고 한다. 트럼프의 중국·북한 관련 조치는 시장에 호재가 되겠지만 강세장 말기에 가까운 시점일 것이라 본다.
다듬은 글
well it's been far too long so I thought we'd start with a market overview here we've had a lot of action this summer we just wrapped the g20 and really the trade war talk and narrative between US and China has taken center stage how do you think this plays out is there a resolution anytime soon well yes they're gonna announce something it's gonna make us all feel good but that's one reason the markets are rallying now but later this year or next year when the economies around the world are getting bad mr.
Trump is gonna blame everything on the foreigners the Chinese the Germans the Japanese everybody in the trade world will come back Daniela and then it's all over so all the market euphoria is just all over welcome to bull markets over you know we've it's been the longest in American history we have not had a bear market it doesn't mean the county don't go on another ten years it doesn't have to end just because it's the longest but we have huge amounts of debt we had a problem in 2008 because of too much debt since then the debt in skyrocketed the next time we have a bear market is going to be horrible compounded by too much debt and by trade war because mr.
Trump is gonna come back mr. Trump believes in his soul in his brain that trade wars are good and then he can win trade was he mr. Trump knows he's smarter than everybody else so he knows he can win a trade war and it will come back strong when the American economy gets bad eventually he's gonna blame it on trade trend the trade war and it's gonna be terrible oh that's an interesting perspective is there any good in trade wars Jim well I have never found any good in it maybe you have and certainly some people benefit from trade Wars but the great and vast majority of people in the world have never benefited or from a trade war other than a small minority who sometimes benefit but if you know of a good trade war please tell me because nobody none of the rest of us know about no you're the expert here Jim much much more than I am but I'm happy you brought up the point about the recession because as you noted this month actually marks the longest period of time the US economy has gone without a recession we're seeing the SMP at all-time highs longest bull market in American history now we know you've been calling for a stock market crash for for quite some time now so is it finally going to give is 2019 the year Jim that we see a major correction here certainly by the end of 2019 I would think the things would be okay but they don't have to end daniela there's no rule that says just because it's been 10 years or 12 years it has to end except for the fact that the deaths worldwide are building up now daniela the way these things have always worked in 2007 iceland went bankrupt when most people had no clue about that and didn't know or care and then later though ireland went bankrupt few more people noticed little while later out to that bear stearns went bankrupt few more people started noticing few weeks later northern rock went bankrupt then people started catching on eventually lehman brothers went bankrupt and buy the hit it was on the evening news all over the world and everybody knew that there was a problem bear markets always worked that way they start where nobody's looking in a few months or whatever later everybody catches on it's already started we're having problems in some places now where nobody notices nobody cares if latvia went bankrupt nobody cares of turkey's collapsing venezuela some Indian banks you know people don't notice or care because they're not significant but eventually we're all gonna notice and we're all gonna care of course it's too late well that's a really interesting point and a good comparison to to oh hm and I want to talk about one of my favorite topics now gold and last time you were on you were saying how the metal might actually turn into a bubble and as you know we've been having a very good summer so far for the metal we've hit highs we and seen in six years after being in no-man's land for so long so what do you make of the rally and the excitement that were finally seeing back in the gold space now well I still own all the gold I've ever owned but I still have not bought any serious go for some time I am still waiting for the chance to stock up in a big way I yes go round up a lot mate six years Hoss it's been coming back down coming down smartly since then but I'm still not a major buyer of gold Danijela if gold goes up and I never buy another house it's okay oh I'll be happy but I'm hoping that there's a great chance to buy lots and lots of gold before this is over and I know you've always told me this in the past that you would never buy goals at these levels so during these rallies you wouldn't touch gold but would you be selling a part of your metal here no no I I've never sold any if gold turns into a bubble again then obviously you have to sell bubbles I hope it doesn't because I want my kids to own my gold everybody should own some gold as an insurance policy of nothing else if and when a bubble develops and it probably will it probably will down y'all because the world's facing gigantic problems in the next few years if that happens and I'll have to sell my gold because you you cannot you can but you're crazy to hold hold on any asset through a bubble once the bubble comes I'll have to sell but banan yo don't worry that's still awake but still a long way away it's not happening this week don't worry Jim what about silver prices the metal just so depressed would you be stocking up on silver now well if I had to buy one silver gold I'd rather buy silver silvers more depressed on a historic basis than gold I'm not buying either in any serious way y'all buy these things and give them as gifts to people but no I am not buying serious silver or gold until there's a very sharp collapse and it may not happen but don't worry Daniella I still have silver and gold so is there anything you are buying right now Jim well I'm buying uh let's see a Russian the Russian share I'm buying which is collapsed you know when I can find serious disasters I try to I would like to be investing in Venezuela but I cannot I'm a citizen with the land of the free Danielle and we're not very free in America anymore so we're not allowed you probably can invest in in Venezuela I'd like to I have learned that when countries collapse normally if you invest when the country has a catastrophe you make a whole lot of money over the next four or five years but I cannot do anything in Venezuela now Jim finally before I wrap and let you go many of our viewers and investors are eager to hear your your thoughts and points of view so what are you telling investors right now what should they be watching well which of us is what I would always tell be very careful we're in precarious times I've said we've had the longest bull market in American history I don't see an end to it yet except I do see signs in other countries that we're starting to see problems developing I would suspect that sometime in the next few weeks or months the bear market will come but it may be 2020 I mean it doesn't have to happen this year I am not I'm not sure I in any significant way I have a few shorts I always do but no no I'm not selling short but I would urge people to be very very alert and aware of what's going on Danijela that could be great news coming if mr.
Trump does something with the Chinese the markets will love it if he does something with North Korea the markets will love it but those would probably be near the end of the bull market but I don't see that happening yet not yet all right well you heard it here first Jim Rogers I always appreciate it thank you so much for taking the time to speak with us today it's always great fun Danielle let's do it again someday all right thank you so much and if you have any comments or questions you can tweet me at Daniela cam Boni we'll see you tomorrow
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