저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 암호화폐는 디레버리징 충격을 겪었지만 비트코인·이더리움 등 핵심 자산은 견조하며 회복할 것이고, 하반기에는 인플레이션 둔화와 연준 전환 기대로 주식에 유리한 위험보상 구도가 예상된다. 암호화폐 시장 충격 수익률 설계 상품과 레버리지 프로젝트의 가상 수익(phantom return)이 드러나며 디레버리징이 촉발됐다. 담보 관리, 회계, 규제 등 구조적 보완이 필요하다는 교훈이 나왔다. 비트코인·이더리움 전망 비트코인은 3년 전 2500달러에서 최근 약 2만 달러 수준으로 조정됐으나 주요 지지선 부근이다. 비트코인 블록체인은 해킹 없이 거래를 계속 처리하고 있다. 비트코인·이더리움은 회복할 것으로 전망된다(목표가 미제시, 기간 미명시). 올해 상반기 시장 흐름 연초 대비 약 21% 하락했고 하락 추세가 강했다. 하반기 인플레이션과 연준 전망 인플레이션이 공급망 병목과 전쟁 영향에 따른 일시적 현상일 가능성이 있다. 하반기에는 인플레이션이 둔화되고 연준의 금리 인상이 중립 수준에 가까워질 것으로 보인다. 채권시장은 연준이 중립 금리 도달에 근접했을 수 있다고 반영 중이다. 주식 전망 주가는 디레이팅되어 위험보상이 개선됐다. 연준이 속도를 늦추면 실적보다 멀티플 확장이 중요해질 것이다. 리스크 연준이 추가 인상으로 실수할 가능성이 시장에서 거론된다. 심리와 포지셔닝은 몇 달 전보다 훨씬 방어적이다. 출연자 견해 이 흐름이 실제로 확인되면 디스인플레이션이 진행될 것이며, 연준 사이클의 상당 부분이 진행됐으나 아직 도달하지 않았을 수 있다고 봤다.
다듬은 글
to see you and let's let's just start you know with crypto and where it's situated obviously the price declines in bitcoin and other coins have precipitated uh the shock to the system we have a little bit of a uh you know kind of the asset liability mismatch type stuff and essentially liquidity issues around the ecosystem what does it mean do you think for the asset class to go through something like this at this point uh this is this is a really important moment for the industry um you know it's the equivalent of a large deleveraging episode where folks have discovered that some of the programming codes don't really secure collateral properly and um decentralized finances is coming into question so i think there's a lot of reasons this is an important moment for the industry and you know it's a painful lesson for investors i i think that one of the big takeaways that have is that without question when it comes to handling money you know technology and code is not the only important factor you know some sort of structure on regulations and accounting and identifying collateral and counterparties as important and i think these are the sort of the developments that need to be added to the next set of projects and blockchains so those are obviously this is going to iterate and they're going to try to figure it out on the technology side what about for those people who really were just viewing it principally as an asset class as something to own whether it's because of momentum or because they were big believers in the digital gold attributes or anything like that uh can it come back from this i guess is the big question um yeah i think it's gonna come back um bitcoins actually held up i think tremendously well as you know bitcoin was 2500 just three years ago and even though it's down from its highs it's actually still around 20 000 and uh near some pretty important support levels but also you know the bitcoin blockchain for instance has has functioned pretty well it hasn't actually had uh any sort of knock-on effects except for price adjusting but uh you know bitcoin security there hasn't been any hacks it's still processing a lot of transactions and moving a lot of value and so i think it's it's showing that parts of the crypto system work really well but a lot of these sort of cutting edge innovative projects and you know attempts to offer yield and leverage and allowing what customers and investors thought was excess return turned out to be uh phantom or borrowing from the future and i think that's that's really the lesson here but to me you know the the court sort of the core pieces like ethereum and bitcoin have actually held up really well now obviously the the declines in uh in crypto prices has come along with and is whatever is somehow interacting with the general flight from risk that we've seen in equities uh in other parts of the financial markets where do we sit with that now tom i mean we're down as we've been talking about 21 in the first half of the year it's been pretty precipitous and and actually a pretty strong downtrend to this point we've been kind of uh trying to navigate between the stubborn inflation on one side uh the potential for economic growth to give way on the other and investors seem like they're they're actually not confident that we can steer clear of any of that uh what do you think is happening here for the for the next half of the year well uh that's a great question michael i mean the first half of this year has been really treacherous and tough because uh you know the markets have been dealing with inflation which has essentially been eradicated from the us for almost two generations and the feds responded very aggressively and it's it's really been there essentially a prime directive but i think as we're exiting first half i think it's there is evidence that some of this inflation that look to be persistent really is either a bull whip effect you know of how supply chains move and also uh supply chain glitches themselves and some war effects and as those start to mitigate uh the second half is going to really be a story about how quickly inflation cools but as as i look at the second half i just think the risk reward is so much stronger you know stocks have derated and if you look at futures pricing the market has really changed its mind the last few weeks about how much wood the fed has to do would it chop because the bond market itself not only tightened dramatically in the first half but now it's starting to think the fed might be much further along in terms of reaching sort of neutral and and maybe an easing cycle and so i you know from an investor perspective as you know when the fed really begins to slow it's not about the earnings that people are going to focus on it's really the fact that the fed starts to go to neutral multiples expand again so i think the risk awards very good for stocks and i think in crypto it's going to be the same story i mean basically you know crypto can't rise in a period when the fed is raising rates another way of i guess describing that sort of that sequence of logic in terms of inflation peaking and what the fed might do is the market is bracing for what will perhaps look like a mistake by the fed uh whether it's happened already or they're going to just kind of push it too far with another a couple of rate hikes this year and i guess is there a risk of of of kind of getting too far ahead of that process even though as you say stocks are a lot less expensive uh and and certainly sentiment and positioning is is much more defensive than it was a few months ago uh that's right michael um you know the fed has a very tricky problem it has to deal with because it has to eradicate uh not only sort of posted inflation but as they mentioned even this week the fed at sintra powell said sintra is that they don't want to de-anchor inflation expectations and it's it's i think primarily speaking to households and so it's important for inflation to improve in a way but i think one of the things that's changed in the last few weeks is that there's a lot of evidence that what we perceived as sort of sticky inflation or what's been structural really turned out to be a supply chain glitch driven and i think that in this in the second half of this year if it turns out that is indeed the case and we start to see disinflation and food prices fall and inventory of a lot of goods become high and so you have discounts that's not an inflationary environment and we've already seen it with a lot of the industrial metals and even energy commodities yeah uh no there's no doubt about that um you know it's we we've gone pretty far distance on this process we just don't know if we're quite there yet tom uh we'll talk to you again soon thanks very much thanks michael all right we're gonna have
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