저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 시장은 이미 금리 인상을 상당 부분 반영했으며, 연준의 추가 서프라이즈가 줄어들어 위험자산(주식)에 유리하다는 낙관론이 중심이다. 연준 정책 및 금리 시장: 2년물과 연방기금금리 스프레드가 1994년 5월 이후 최고 수준이나, 이번 인상 후 2022년 4월 수준보다 낮아져 연준이 덜 뒤처진 것으로 인식될 수 있다고 봄. 금리선물 시장이 인상 경로를 이미 가격에 반영했다고 판단. 경기 및 고용: 해고 증가와 현재의 긴축 금융여건이 경기를 둔화시키고 있다고 평가. 휘발유 가격이 CPI 인식을 좌우하는 변수라고 언급. 기업 실적: 팬데믹 때 기업들이 비용을 절감해 실적 방어력이 예상보다 강했음. 투자자들이 현 환경에서 기업 실적이 크게 훼손될 것으로 과도하게 가정하고 있어, 실적이 예상보다 버티면 주식이 크게 개선될 수 있다고 주장. 인플레이션 및 연착륙: 주택·자동차 연체·압류 증가가 주거비와 재화 가격 인플레이션 내러티브를 약화시킨다고 봄. Cleveland 인플레이션 트래커 기준 코어 인플레이션이 둔화 중이며, 인플레이션 하락이 위험자산에 가장 좋은 뉴스라고 주장. 연착륙 전망에 긍정적. 반대 의견(출연자 Jimmy Slamat 등): 자동차 대출 연체 확산이 신용카드·모기지로 번져 소비자(경제의 70%)가 압박받을 것이며, 금리 인상은 식품·에너지 가격을 낮추지 못한다고 비관. 연준의 연착륙 가능성에 회의적. 리스크: 연체 확산에 따른 소비 침체, 에너지·식품 물가 지속, 연준의 과도한 긴축 및 경기침체 가능성. 출연자 전망: Tom Lee는 주식이 이후 상당히 나아질 수 있다고 낙관. 반대측은 단기 조정 및 소비 위축을 우려.
다듬은 글
market react uh i think markets have already priced in 75 if you look at interest rate futures so i would say that makes a lot of sense because the fed doesn't necessarily want to surprise markets and i i think that i'd agree with those who say that a move like today is probably better for risk assets only because it really narrows the perception about how far the fed is behind you know a simple way to look at it is the spread between the two year in fed funds which jeff gunlock has mentioned many times and it's at the highest level since may 94 today but after the hike this brings it down to levels that were actually lower than we were around april this year so i i think in some ways you know investors could actually start to feel better that the fed isn't as behind uh fewer upside surprises and of course the data has to start cooperating going forward but they're going to be really aggressive going forward don't you agree with that you saw fed funds futures what leasement was talking about where rates could really be going the market's just going to be just fine in that scenario i think people have a hard time believing that it is uh yeah there's uh i i would say that you can't nobody can say the macros is super clear right now um i think it's been helpful to see some of the slowing uh and the job cuts because that just shows the current hikes and the current tight financial conditions are slowing the economy and i think of course the unknown is what happens with gasoline because that that is really driving people's perceptions about cpi but on the flip side i'd agree with what kevin and jim have been saying you know there's a real test happening to corporate america here uh you know in the pandemic uh people expected earnings to collapse but companies slash costs and manage through that well and i think that really earned them a view that they're kind of much more durable than people expected and now i think investors are also assuming that companies are going to get massacred uh in this current environment but if they're going to navigate through this better than expected and earnings hold up better then we're talking about a a situation where investors are risk off the fed isn't necessarily going to shock markets with further surprises so even if rates you know if the fed hikes from here a lot of that's already priced into future interest rates so there's fewer surprises to discount rate and what you think risk premium should do and so i think stocks could do a lot better john and jerry and i want you your counterpoint i suppose uh because you're extremely negative it sounds to me against what is farmer jim and kevin o'leary and tom lee's optimism yeah i mean i i'm an optimistic guy overall scott but i'm also a realist and i'd love to hear tom's opinion on tom you heard today that ford had significantly higher delinquencies granted that's coming from a low rate i get it but that's only going to be accelerating for the next year that's going to go over to credit card debt it's going to go over to mortgages we all know how this snowballs so how can i be as optimistic as you tom if i know that consumers that are 70 of the economy are going to be strapped they're not going to be able to trade you know as far as they'll be more people renting because home affordability is going to be going down meeting that mortgage payment is going to be a lot tougher unless biden actually did something about an energy policy which he has only done a negative energy policy so far i mean you you already said the price that will be paid to transport items for people i mean increasing interest rates doesn't bring food prices down doesn't bring gasoline prices down it just doesn't you cannot impact other things right but those two will not be brought down because people have to eat and they've got to get somewhere strapped consumer right if not now it's coming yeah there's uh this is sort of the peculiar uh that would be peculiarly positive actually for equities uh john and it's not because i want people to lose jobs and and not repay their loans um these are obviously you know bad signs but in the aggregate it actually has two effects one is it's really going to slow perception about inflation because if you've got delinquencies and repossessions and housing slowing well that just kills two stalwarts of the inflation narrative you know one is housing and owner's equivalent right in the future and second is goods pricing and it also weakens the job market and as you know the fed is really concerned about how tight the job market is so i i think if what's happening uh on the margin actually supports the idea of a soft land and if it's a soft landing the fed doesn't have to go as far that's a very minority view right now because i think people are really concerned about inflation but it's uh even if you look at things like the cleveland inflation tracker core inflation is cooling not maybe fast enough for the fed but there are signs of cooling and if we add all these things it means conflation could drift lower and that's probably the best news for risk assets i mean and they're not only worried about inflation as to why they think there's there's not going to be a soft landing it's because history suggests that the fed can't pull it off and maybe that's the overwhelming factor in the reason why there is a level of pessimism that the fed can do what the market suggests is going to happen by fed funds futures and then somehow they're also going to have the incredible ability to avoid a recession we will see and tom i know we'll talk to you multiple times in the weeks and months ahead i gotta run i'm tight on time but we'll see what happens this afternoon we'll see you soon coming up we do have many
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