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트럼프 트레이드는 여전히 유효하며 재무장관 발표 등 불확실성 해소 이벤트 임박. 연준은 금리인하 타이밍만 늦출 뿐 여전히 비둘기파적이라 봄. 엔비디아 실적은 긍정적일 가능성이 높고 수요가 공급을 초과하며 경쟁자 부재로 주가 단기 변동은 무시하라고 함. 연말 세금손실 매도 압력으로 많이 빠진 종목의 저가매수는 위험하다고 봄. 헬스케어는 RFK Jr. 영향으로 가시성이 떨어져 어려울 것으로 봄.
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join us now Tom Lee head of research at funstra Global advisors as well as the CNBC contor we can get to bitcoin uh in a second I want to talk uh just about the overall markets Tom and you think leading into Thanksgiving that that that slow sort of uh bleed that was slow bleed last week in the markets you expect that not to uh not to be lasting and multiple factors make you feel good about the next couple of weeks and one of them which is plays into what we've been talking about all morning and is the treasury secretary announcement we'll remove some uncertainty you're following poly Market to see who's in what bessent was it 70 but then musk said uh tweeted about letnik and his chances went up what what is it now uh they've both Fallen they've both Fallen to sub 40% so it uh you know part of it is Kevin warsh has moved up and Mark Rowan has moved up we're using poly Market to decide who's going to be the the treasury secretary things have happened right so that's you think we hear this week and that'll remove uncertainty or you that's not the most important thing well I I think as we remove uncertainty so it may not be announced in the next week or so I I think that's a like what I'd consider a clearing event it takes away some uncertainty uncertainty and the Trump trade I think is still intact the FED uh might not cut as quickly as as possible but you still said still we're in a good place doish wise that's right I last week uh mark markets were a little taken by surprise when fed CH P said he might you know slow things down for December but if you look at December 2025 a year from now the number of implied Cuts is still the same so I think he's doish he's just moving some of the timing um another clearing event Nvidia you expect it to be a bullish clearing event I mean most likely I I think markets get very hesitant in front of Nvidia earnings so once that's behind us we'll see demand is strong and I think Market breathes a s relief and then we did get a little bit maybe bullish or over our skis so we pulled back to a support level where you feel more comfortable that's right I think most of the major indices have pulled back to what would be technically viewed by our technician Mark Newton as support so the NASDAQ is on the support line S&P did a 60% retrace of its recent rally and small caps have held above their prior highs these are all bullish support levels I was wondering whether things were getting overdone when the journal says a melt up could be in the cards um and the Trump trade has already been going for a while you think it's just getting started at this point there there's a lot probably for the markets uh to like I guess in terms of I mean he likes easy money he likes low regulation he likes lower taxes I mean there's a lot it's more than a two-e rally maybe in your view that's right and I think maybe markets are course correcting because now with Doge the department of government efficiency there may be cuts to healthc care and Industrials because a defense spending so things that investors can focus on more deregulation of animal spirits more like small caps and financials all right what about um Healthcare you mentioned that in particular I mean it it it's not just Doge that's going to be looking for more ways of efficiency it's also um changes of foot with RFK Jr we're going to speak with Mark balini about that in a minute but how does the market kind of weigh that out yeah I I think it's going to be a a tough period for visibility for healthcare because um you know even recent comments about how much healthc care spending dominates advertising um when you're not in the political cycle and you're right there's there's concerns about safety of certain vaccines and RFK being in charge of HHS so I would just say there's clouds there's still going to be opportunities probably in biotechs but it's going to be challenging attention investors and Market enthusiasts the stock market is buzzing with electrifying developments and the buzzword on everyone's lips is NVIDIA with an earnings report lurking around the corner and speculation mounting about key treasury appointments in the Trump era the market remains on the edge Tom Lee from fun Strat Global advisers has sparked Intrigue by affirming that despite prevailing uncertainties the Trump trade sales ahead with strength as Nvidia prepares to reveal its anticipated Financial outcomes experts forecast a revenue jump from last year's figures will nvidia's report act as the much needed Catalyst to extend the Market's broad rally let's dive in and unravel the unfolding Market drama welcome back everyone to invest ocracy I'm segueing to Nvidia which is one of the few names that's up this morning and I mean 33 minutes into our broadcast we haven't mentioned generative AI we haven't mentioned Nvidia it's uh sacren to not uh to not get to those sooner well if you believe in what was put out by this uh company that we we put on TV called the information if you believe what the information says then it would be a massive shortfall and you should sell the stock I don't know that they said that well they said that Blackwell is is late they can't get it to work something very different from Michael Dell my regard as being somewhat TR true understood and Michael Dell did come out in defense to the point we made yesterday though is even if in fact it was true it doesn't mean that demand is in any way being impacted over the long term maybe you have a quarterly hiccup in some way in terms of deliveries but that would be about it inidia still stands alone Jim for the uh it would seem look I say own it don't trade it I don't be confused by anything about the information because there's one there's two things you need to know about Nvidia one is that they have incredible demand far more than they can handle maybe even enough to be able to do exactly where we are right now next year and you know secondly there's no competition because no one's even remotely near them including AMD which is a company I like very very much but they're not um and you know for his part Jensen Wong considers the data center now sort of its own supercomputer it's almost one entity uh is the way I've heard him describe any number of these podcasts that he seems to consistently do yeah had another good one yesterday he he just there was an Atlanta conference for super computers Happ this week and once again you understand that he's just a bigger thinker he understands it if the problem where the largest supercomputer in the world is now right yeah it's in Tennessee it's a that's correct Tesla and by the way you know it's not Tesla what's right and what's incredible is is that when you speak to Jensen he'll just say they are amazing to work with yep uh remember there was a a conference call referen by Elon Musk which basically said yeah and they're good at it but they are this is the part of the brain of why we should have self-driving and this man musk has thought as far ahead as Jensen yeah Jenson has uh has praised and basically sits in awe to a certain extent of what uh of what xai was able to do yes in terms of putting up that data center in Memphis the one I referenced last week when he talked about the latest Capital raise of xai some potentially as much as $6 billion addition way funds being raised by that company postmarket value of 50 billion for xai that and all of it almost all of it going to go buying even more h100s and the like to increase the capacity of that already biggest supercomputer in the world in realize this is not I mean let's say we were going 46 to penum Intel it's not like that you can have the h100s which is not the latest model the h200 the the great you know this is all um one generation old h100 right it doesn't matter it all works software sta right cuz Nvidia that's that what it's all about I mean that's why Reuben is going to work perfectly that's next year's iteration what you're what you're getting here is nothing more than a an inflection Industrial Revolution in our country and the fact that Taiwan semi has to come here and build things the fact that all the companies who are in Autos have to build things is a great Renaissance I wish we had the people that's why we need the computers that's why we need Blackwell uh which is the latest iteration of of uh Nvidia and just when just a close loop on Nvidia what will probably happen is that the collection will be pushed back from the January quarter to the April quarter uh but it'll still be incredibly lucrative the story unfolds with the charismatic insights of Tom Lee who with unshaken optimism suggests the clouds hanging over the stock market aren't as stormy as they appear while some Ma J that predicting the market is as reliable as using a broken clock to tell time Lee stands firm especially with nvidia's impending report the recent Market Jitters triggered by speculation over the next treasury secretary are predicted to clear with impactful announcements shortly amidst this suspense Lee also cast light on the federal reserve's dovish stance despite Jerome Powell's comments on rate Cuts if you look at December 2025 the number of implied Cuts is still the same Lee elaborated suggesting a POS positive trajectory for the market what's causing further excitement is nvidia's forecasted earnings with analysts proposing a revenue leap from 18.12 billion a year ago to $33.12 billion this quarter if nvidia's upcoming earnings sore P passed even seasoned expectations based on its succession of beating estimates it could reaffirm investor confidence aligning with Le's bullish predict's hard to talk about the market without talking about Nvidia and Tesla which are both really helping prop things up and part of the turnaround right now 100% um Nvidia in particular today it's really interesting because it's like Nvidia is moving in a seesaw with the rest of semis to some degree yesterday Nvidia was down and the other semis that had been lagging was up um I just saw the numbers come through from interactive brokers the prior 5 days the number of customer orders in Nvidia over the last 5 days and Tesla were like 7 to 10 times what Apple was right so just relative to market cap the level of turnover and excitement around them is almost self- sustaining and so it's really hard to handicap what's being priced and now with Nvidia we're going to have a quick Benchmark as to whether this was justified we're going to get some guidance about next year's demand and all that stuff so it it's a little more t Ed to the fundamental story whereas for Tesla it's a it's a lot of uh you know atmospherics and we think good things might happen the longer he hangs around Mar Lago the more stock might never leave yeah well okay so let's talk about Nvidia uh I want to give a hat tip to Josh who's you know the one I think of all of us who's been in it the longest maybe you too Jason um but look the report is likely to be very good tomorrow there's no reason to think it will be otherwise when you look at what the hyperscalers are talking about capex and basically every news item is people can't get enough of the chips as far as the short-term price action I would say really don't pay attention to it a lot of this has to do with short-dated options that are people putting on to play the pop presumably after earnings happen and then they sell the calls and that makes the stock go down so don't be worried about the short-term action um regarding Tech in general I think for the same reasons that we've all been talking about earlier in the show people are going to be loathed to sell these going into year end again you don't want to take a taxable gain and if your index are in some way benchmarked you're not going to want to take the risk of falling behind The Benchmark by the way and I just want to tie this into what Josh was saying a second ago when you talk about bottom fishing and why it's really a bad idea right now is because the opposite of what I just said applies the things that have gotten decimated this year are likely to be tax loss candidates they're likely to get bare mauled in December that's not where you want to be shopping right now Jason and you've owned a video Jim just said you might have been in at the longest what do you make ahead of the print is it too late for someone that hasn't gotten in at the price action that we're seeing now I don't think so I think I think the question is obviously is how how sustainable is this on ongoing AI compute demand how how sustainable is going forward um yes the Stock's up 189% uh year today we're expecting about $33 billion worth of Revenue we probably will surpass that somewhat I think in the next quarter however when you really start to see Blackwell come through uh that will be the bangout quarter which is the quarter that we're we're working through right now which we potentially see $38 billion worth of Revenue um so I continue to like this story We again we hear from the hyperscalers and all the CeX spend that's going um in this space that obviously inidia continues to capture there's not a lot of competition for them currently um so I continue to like the stock and I think that you know maybe maybe you're not buying it right here but there will be opportunities that present yourselves we've seen how this stock has traded over the last few quarters the potential treasury appointees keep investors riveted as the appointments effect on policies could pivot market dynamics bolstering Le's cited Trump trade predicated on deregulation and low tax initiatives elements beloved by Traders meanwhile predictions from Top envidia analysts such as truist William Stein and Key Banks John Vin capture attention each maintaining buy or overweight ratings amid expectations for sustained growth windfalls despite Supply constraints conversationally speaking as Nvidia strengthens its reputation investors can't help but wonder if the magnetic pull towards AI technologies will sustain or fizzle like yesterday's news hint Stein and Vin both view the risk reward ratio favorably long term as Blackwell ramps up and overshadowing Hopper success seems imminent nvidia's turn in the spotlight is one to watch closeat are you waiting for ahead of Nvidia as an owner of this name as well there's a report out there that the implied swing for NVIDIA up or down is expected to be about 8 and a half percent that's in line with the average swing that we've seen over the last 12 quarters but the company is much bigger than it's ever been it's $3.5 trillion so a swing of that magnitude is almost $300 billion which is more than almost every publicly traded uh company's market cap so we are basically looking looking at a situation where the biggest most loved most celebrated most well-regarded stock in the entire Market is coming out with an earnings report that yet again they guided higher going into analysts are now looking for 33.2 billion which was a guide up from last quarter 70 cents in earnings per share that equates to 84% year-over-year Revenue growth and 89% earnings per share growth so my comments here would be yes we all hope for the best but let's all be very honest with each other a company at $33 billion in Revenue being able to do 84% growth on that and then telling you they're going to do it again next time is very low I think the tight RPP that Nvidia now has to walk is to remain optimistic about the future but not continue to push out those expectations and and give people the impression that year-over-year sales double for a 30 uh for A3 trillion company is in any way realistic as far as expectations I think they get it I think there's a way to do that I think there's a way to give guidance sound optimistic but not keep painting yourself into a corner of people looking for doubles every time you report we'll see if they can pull it off that's what I'm watching for as the market eagerly anticipates nvidia's report a persuasive investment narrative coils around this star stock with nvidia's year-to-date performance boasting an impressive 197.4 increase amid a volatile backdrop the company's prospects indeed seem promising considering analysts commentary on the insatiable demand for nvidia's Technologies even with Supply constraints its stock holds a futuristic Allure with critical support levels holding firm on major indices perhaps now is a strategic moment for investors to contemplate embedding nvidia's Financial narrative into their portfolios Market sentiments Express a palpable curiosity will nvidia's Triumph continue to outshine its peers Discerning viewers and investors what do you make of nvidia's Stellar ascent and its tantalizing promise for sustained growth in an Ever evolving Market landscap
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