저자: DanIves · 외국인
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AI 인프라 수요가 구조적으로 확대 중이라 엔비디아가 독점적 지위로 수혜를 받는다는 주장. 하이퍼스케일러의 대규모 capex, 메타의 Llama 4 학습 컴퓨팅 수요 급증을 근거로 제시. 블랙웰 과열·출시 지연 우려는 단기 노이즈로 보고 실적 상회 기대. 금리 인하·규제 완화 등 정책 순풍이 기술주 랠리를 뒷받침한다고 봄. 엔비디아 실적 발표 직전 낙관론과 시장 기대치 과열 가능성이 함께 언급됨.
다듬은 글
Uh I do want to talk about how things are changing on the margin and at the risk of zooming out too far but kind of the one other point there uh Dan on the origins of this is how much do you think kind of the just whole system was proven out the way we lowered rates we put money into capital markets for anyone who kind of doubts that uh prosperity stems from innovation can we attribute some of this to the money that was injected into the economy to get these ideas flowing right isn't that like how tech revolutions happen.
Of course, that's how that's how revolutions happen. I mean, it goes back no different than you could go back to when I covered textile financial crisis and tarp and everything else that created the next level of innovation from 2010 to probably 2016. That's how the system works. It's how it should work.
And I think when you look at essentially, you know, Fed Engineering, Pillsbury, Doughboy, soft landing, and that's why a lot of times the Bears, you know, they sound smart with their spreadsheets and valuations, but they've missed every transformational technique the last 15 years. Uh, okay. So then where we're at right now, do we need any additional economic stimuli or are the wheels and the gears kind of turning themselves now that we've had the AI and the uh breakthrough from Nvidia particularly on powering all this stuff?
Uh how much is kind of selfmoving now Dan? I think 50% self-moving 50% you still need and that's why like lowering of taxes deregulation essentially when you know when it comes to Khan FTC gone others I think when it comes to where money is being spent inflation reduction act that's going to be massively shifted I think Musk is going to play a huge role there it's not necessarily kind of like the red tape poster childs like an Intel it's going to be much more focused on the AI I think hypers scour is going benefit Alexa, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Palunteer and others.
Look, I think the reality is is that we are on the cusp of really an unprecedented revolution. But that's why when you combine that with Trump getting in a red sweep, the Cinderella story for big tech, and I think that's why we've even seen that significant rally since Trump got in. Buckle up because today's stock market buzz is hotter than ever with Nvidia Corp.
leading the charge. Just yesterday, the tech giant shares skyrocketed by nearly 5% ahead of its much anticipated quarterly earnings report. Investors are on the edge of their seats with Nvidia poised to sweep the field as it allies with tech behemoth, Meta, Google, and Microsoft in ramping up capital for AI advancements.
But that's not all. Tesla and Walmart, among others, are also stirring the pot with their share gains. Get ready to dive into a whirlwind of stock market magic where AI reigns supreme and Nvidia holds the scepter. Welcome back everyone to Inestocracy. Nvidia will meantime release its quarterly results after the closing bell tomorrow.
Uh expectations are high despite reports of overheating issues with its newest chips. Our next guest believes Nvidia will beat estimates and there is no alternative as a pure play in this area. but he does have some add-on names that support the space if you're looking for a little bit lower volatility.
David Miller is co-founder and chief investment officer at Catalyst Funds. David, welcome. Good to have you with us. Your views on Nvidia have changed, I'm told, uh, since the last time you were with us. Explain what you were feeling then and what you're feeling now and why. Yeah, well, my views have changed because the data's changed and so my views changed with it.
Uh essentially the the old data essentially told you that you should try to model off of Moore's law. Uh but with this most recent earnings report that we saw from Meta, it's become clear that things with AI are not behaving like Moore's law. Meaning that the Llama 4 models they've indicated will take 10 times as much compute uh to train as Llama 3 did.
And when you look at uh Meta's last quarter uh spend, they're north of 8 billion uh capex and most of that was going to this uh data networking. So you you can see from the hyperscalers that we've already essentially baked in a beat for Nvidia's earnings and uh that's why I'm uh more bullish than than I was previously.
So I in in short then because it's going to take so much more computing power and because Nvidia is really right now the uh the monopoly power in that space. There's no place to go but to Nvidia to get the power you need. Exactly. Nvidia's essentially a pure monopoly and that's continuing with their their next generation uh Blackwell chips.
Those won't be in uh this quarter's earnings, but they they will start next quarters and they'll really be uh baked into the the January quarter. Uh but you can already see from the numbers that that came out uh with uh this very elevated uh capex spending uh by the hyperscalers uh that that money is clearly going to Nvidia uh for uh their current uh iteration of chips.
and they've indicated at least uh in particular uh for for Meta uh that that's going to continue to escalate quite rapidly. But you know, the same trend we're going to see at uh Google and and Microsoft, the these companies have uh no choice uh but to uh compete in that arms race. You can't afford to to lose an AI.
In the ever volatile kingdom of Wall Street, Nvidia Corp sits comfortably on the throne with analysts touting its prowess as the only game in town when it comes to AI capital expenditures. Jensen Huang's brainchild has cemented its role in the tech arena, drawing plaudits from the likes of Wed Bush analyst Dan Ies, who boldly hailed the impending beat and raise scenario for Nvidia's earnings.
Ies didn't miss the chance to throw some spice into his predictions, quipping about the potential $2 billion beat paired with a $2 billion guidance lift, making it sound almost like Nvidia's earnings were a weekend blockbuster release. While Nvidia basks in the limelight, Tesla isn't just along for the ride.
Its shares saw a remarkable 2% upswing, contributing to an impressive 38% climb for the month. However, Nvidia's trajectory this week has been as intriguing as watching a hyperactive stock ticker in Times Square, part technology drama, part business bonanza. With Meta, Google, and Microsoft lavishing funds on AI, it's the perfect climate for Nvidia's tech to flourish.
Meta's capex surge and Google's daring budget hikes add more fuel to the fire as they set the stage for Nvidia's ascense biggest upside contributor to the S&P by far about 25 hours ahead of its earnings release renders a verdict on the overall AI trade. You see Nvidia up 4 and a.5% right now. M round us out here with a word on what you're expecting out of Nvidia and also just how central that might be for the broader market or whether it's going to be uh kind of filtered through a lot of other factors.
Uh Nvidia is the AI circulatory system, right? And we're all really clear if you listen to Amazon, Google, Microsoft, they all implied or explicitly said we're spending more. SA said during the earnings call, hardware cannot keep up with demand. And so, as Nvidia being this a AI circulatory system, I think you're going to hear about Dell, you're going to hear about what they're doing in Nvidia, about XAI.
You know, Jensen likes to sprinkle in all these other companies that they're working with. And so, I think this is going to be another wonderful quarter. I think that every everyone already knows that the the rate of beats is slowing. I don't think that's any new news. The market's pricing in plus or minus 7%.
I mean, Nvidia is basically at an all-time high here. So, there's definitely a lot of optimism going into the print tomorrow. But if you take a step back, this company is still just eating everybody else as it relates to the AI space. Tech stocks outperforming today as investors prepare for Nvidia's critical earnings report tomorrow.
Let's bring in Nvidia shareholder Doug Clinton, founder and CEO of Intelligent Alpha here at Post 9. Doug, good to see you. See you, Mike. Um, so it's interesting. there's always this sort of underlying confidence in the overall story with Nvidia. We know what supply demand is. We know they're, you know, the only game for a certain part of this market.
On the other hand, there's all these sort of doubts that filter in whether it's about the pacing of the roll out of the next generation, the overheating stuff, whether in fact, you know, return on investment is is happening. How does that all come together into tomorrow? I think tomorrow is it's almost like deja vu.
I mean, to your point, right, last quarter, the issue was Blackwell. Were we going to get a delay? We did get a delay. It was about a quarter. And if you look at what Nvidia stock did after that, you know, it was kind of well rumored, but still the stock sold off 10 plus percent. It was a pretty decent sell-off.
Yeah. And so I think going into this quarter, the big topic is going to be this Blackwell issue with overheating. I don't think this issue is nearly as serious. So just to kind of put the two in context, the first issue is really about delaying the entire roll out of this product line. The overheating issue is a little bit more limited.
So this is about a specific product, the GB 200. It's their top-of-the-line server product. Meta, Microsoft, these are the customers of that product. Even if that gets pushed a month, a quarter, I don't know that that's going to be that big of a deal for this particular report, but it could be something we hear more about into next year.
And then you keep hearing that investors really crave some kind of visibility toward even after next year. I mean, in other words, how much life is behind these demand trends? And into that comes this debate about whether in fact things have slowed down in terms of improvement of all these AI models and and what does that mean for the investment pace.
I think that's going to be topic B tomorrow and I expect Jensen we'll get a question about the AI scaling laws. Yes. Right. And so the scaling laws just to give the quick 101 is over the last few years what we've seen in AI model development is the more data that you put into these models the more compute you use to train the models the better the models get.
very predictable. And what we've seen in reports more recently from OpenAI, from Google, is that the most recent models that they've trained haven't quite been as good as they expected based on the scaling laws. And it's kind of been a hot topic of debate in Silicon Valley. Even Sam Alman tweeted about it just last week.
He said there is no wall. So, so maybe it's not an issue. We'll see. But I think Jensen really does need to address that question because that's the 18 to 24month picture. Do we get to a point where these companies need to spend on something other than just compute? In the arena of investor sentiment, the CNN money, fear, and greed index stands as a formidable weather vein.
Despite geopolitical rumblings from the Ukraine Russia front line, it has tipped to a neutral 50.1 from its previous 49.9, signifying a market that is neither frenzied nor panicked. Amid the smoke and mirrors, housing data dipped, yet the NASDAQ glided skyward with a 1% gain. For some comic relief, one might justest that investors often feel their pulses quicken more from Nvidia's fiscal acrobatics than from geopolitical flare-ups.
The intertwining narratives in these headlines only bolster Nvidia's mystique. The tech avenue it ventures isn't just paved with AI gold, but commands its share of growing pains, notably the heating issues with new AI chips, akin to getting tech enthusiasts to sweat over their investments, literdam, setting up for tomorrow.
Of course, we got Nvidia uh reporting right here in overtime. How important is that report, especially given it was up what 4% today? Apploving was up strong again, which speaks to me of optimism. Bitcoin's been doing well. I could name a few other names. How much of the momentum in this market and perhaps with the NASDAQ do you think is hinging on that report?
Yeah, I mean it's going to be crucial. Tech tech really continues to uh drive a lot of this market and you saw today tech was the um the primary cause of the rebound in equity. So you know all of the indications out of big tech with the AM momentum it still seems like it is all um you know firing all cylinders.
We had the Vertive analyst meeting yesterday. They had a very bullish outlook on data center construction. You know, there's been some noise around Blackwell and and whether or not there's some a heat issue and overheating issue, but you know, Nvidia continues to own this market. They really are not facing a lot of competition and the major tech players are pouring capex into data construction, data center construction.
And you're also seeing now the AI spend broaden out from beyond those hyperscalers. And this is something that Cisco and others have acknowledged that you know enterprises are now pouring money into into AI. It's not just the Amazon, Google's and Microsofts of the world. So all signs suggest that the fundamentals for this market remain very strong.
It's just a question of you know how much is priced into the stock at these levels where obviously expectations are very very elevated. Um you know sentiments already extremely bullish on the story. As the curtain on today's trading saga descends, Nvidia emerges as the crown jewel. With a near10 trillion valuation as forecasted by AI pundits with its AI chips igniting enthusiasm and occasional thermal breaks, it's a stock that forecasters are watching like hawks.
Nvidia's perch on the tech summit remains unchallenged. Its glimmer undimemed by the market's mood swings. The company's latest share price stands as a testament to its resilient allure, even as after hours trading nudges it higher. So, what does this all mean for potential investors? With Nvidia's momentum visible through today's market lens, perhaps it's time to seize the moment and consider investing in this beacon of innovation.
But then, how do you see it? Is Nvidia set to revolutionize markets further? Or is it just another day of volatile fortunes in the stock market drama? Share your thoughts and let the discussion unfol.
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