저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 빌 애크먼은 장기적으로는 주식 강세 시각이지만 단기(1~3개월)는 금리 상승으로 약세를 보고 채권 숏을 헤지로 쓴다. [애크먼 포트폴리오 구성] 애크먼은 예측 가능한 현금흐름, 높은 진입장벽, 강한 재무구조를 가진 소수 기업에 집중 투자한다. 상위 보유 종목: 치폴레(약 19%), 레스토랑브랜즈(약 17%), 로우스(매도 축소), 힐튼(12.5%), 알파벳(13%), 하워드휴즈(12%), 캐나다퍼시픽(11%) 등. [종목별 언급] 치폴레: 최대 비중, 2016년부터 보유, 가장 높은 수익률. 레스토랑브랜즈: 2023년 약 12% 하락, 6월 이후 약 2.3억 달러 손실 언급. 로우스: 비중을 25% 줄임, 부채·설비투자 부담 지적. 힐튼: 경기침체 취약하나 2023년 약 18% 상승 추세. 알파벳: 2023년 상반기 신규 편입, 클라우드 흑자전환과 AI 성장 기대, 연초 대비 약 45% 상승. 하워드휴즈: 2010년부터 보유, 애크먼이 회장직 수행, 고위험·5년간 약 40% 하락. 캐나다퍼시픽: 철도 운송 방어주로 평가, 올해 수익률 부진. [단기 금리·채권 전망] 인플레이션이 3% 아래로 쉽게 내려가지 않을 것으로 보고 금리 상승을 예상. 30년물 국채 금리가 4.17%에서 4.3%로 오르며 애크먼의 숏 포지션이 유리하게 작동했다고 설명. 연준 파월 의장도 목표치 도달 전까지 고금리 유지 입장을 확인했다고 언급. [장기 전망 및 조건] 향후 연준이 금리를 인하하기 시작하면 주식시장에 매수 신호가 될 것이라는 장기 강세 견해. 그러나 현 시점에서는 성급히 올인하지 말고 인내심을 가질 것을 권고. [리스크] 인플레이션 고착(탈세계화, 국방비, 에너지 전환, 노동 협상력), 고금리 장기화, 개별 종목 집중 리스크. [출연자 전망] 진행자는 애크먼의 단기 헤지 전략과 장기 강세 관점을 정리하며, 단기 관망·분산 헤지 필요성을 강조.
다듬은 글
the billionaire who predicted the coronavirus crash and made 2.6 billion dollars the hotel industry and the restaurant industry will go bankrupt first Boeing will not survive without a government bailout has all his 10 billion dollars portfolio invested in only seven stocks today we'll see which are his stock picks why he's not bullish on the stock market in the short term and when he believes that it's a good time to go all in on buying stocks that's kind of a Buy Signal for markets besides making one of the wildest calls in history during the pandemic bear Market Bill Ackman is also known for his extreme portfolio concentration if you want to make high rates return over a long period of time it's hard to do that being very diversified this approach is also shared by other investors like the GOAT Warren Buffett who holds 50% of his portfolio in Apple stock if you really know businesses you probably shouldn't own more than six of them if you can identify six wonderful businesses that is all the diversification you need and you're gonna make a lot of money but before we see which stocks Bill Ackman bought let's see his thought process for finding high quality stocks our principles are based we want to invest in simple predictable free cash flow generative dominant companies with large barriers to entry that earn high Returns on Capital that have limited exposure to extrinsic risk we can't control strong balance sheets don't need access to Capital to survive have excellent management good governance so at number seven with eleven percent weight we have Canadian Pacific this is a freight railway company which transports commodities like grain and coal but also freight like metals plastic or chemicals the stock didn't offer great returns this year but this might be a great pcik if you prefer solid value companies with a phenomenal net profit margin around 40 percent this is more of a defensive stock than if you think about the railroad business it's a business where they're not gonna build a new one across the street absent some fairly dramatic changes in technology you can be pretty comfortable that you know Goods will be shipped on rail for a very long time to come next at number six with 12 percent weight is the real estate company Howard Hughes in spite of the revenue being very volatile the company maintained really good operating margins during the last couple of years Ackman has invested in this business for the first time in 2010 and has added heavily during the last couple of years actually he believes in the company so much that he serves as the chairman of the board however please note that this is a very risky stock that has underperformed during the last couple of years with a 40% loss in the last five years no God please no no now before we go into Ackman's top 5 holdings I want you to notice that 4 out of these five stocks are consumer discretionary companies these are all tied up to how much money do consumers spend which tends to decrease in periods of high interest rates and economic uncertainty I was asked by a student what's the single best business in the world I said if you could own a royalty on people spending money like Visa or MasterCard greatest business in the world and a great example is the fifth position with 12.5 weight which is Hilton this huge hotels and resorts company is a blue chip stock that is a volatile business because people tend to travel less during economic downturns however unlike the real estate company the stock rides a beautiful bullish trend line with a return of 18% for 2023 okay next at number 4 with 13 weight we have Google missing Google can be a you know as important a mistake or maybe even a bigger mistake than uh making a bad investment that doesn't work after Google Cloud became profitable in 2023 Ackman sees upside potential as he just opened the position at the beginning of the year moreover Google's advancements in AI will be Paramount for future growth as the advertising giant faces intense competition from other large language models like chatGPT Ackman increased his Google position 16% in the second quarter so he benefited from the 45% year-to-date return that Google stock offered next up at number 3 we have Lowes this is one of the biggest retailers of home Improvements in the United States the revenue growth tends to be really volatile as the revenue is expected to decrease nine percent for 2023.
still the company generates net profits with an 11% net margin however it is a capital intensive business and has significant amounts of debt so I believe this is a pretty risky business Lowe's used to be Ackman's number one position in his portfolio but he decreased his exposure by 25% at number 2 we have restaurant brands with 17% weight this company owns several fast food brands like Tom Hortons or Burger King this is yet another slow growing company with Great Net margins around 15% but in 2023 the stock has been underperforming after the stock had a 12% percent drop this means that from the end of June Bill Ackman lost more than 230 million dollars on this stock alone finally at number one the biggest position in Ackman's portfolio with almost 19% weight is Chipotle I eat on a regular basis at Chipotle I like the food I think it's healthy I think it's good for America I think they got a sustainable MOAT around their business this is another fast food chain stock which Ackman bought since 2016 and it provided his best return so far and by now you've probably noticed that his top two positions are fast food restaurants and the reason why Ackman is so focused on fast food chains is because he sees these businesses as recession proof in a recessionary environment historically people don't stop eating out but they might adjust from the sit-down restaurant to a fast food environment or a place.
fast food if you will the quick service restaurants have generally done well in recessionary environments Chipotle grows nicely while improving margins and it's also generating high amounts of free cash flows as a result the stock grew around 37 percent in 2023 however in spite of owning these high quality businesses Bill Ackman is not bullish on the short term he's actually shorting the stock market after the U.S credit rating has been downloaded because he sees the yields going much higher and when yields go higher long duration assets are worth less at the beginning of August Ackman posted his prediction for the short term he sees inflation remaining elevated because of things like deglobalization higher defense cost the energy transition and greater bargaining power of workers as a result he would be really surprised if inflation somehow drops below 3 percent and because of the persistent inflation he sees interest rates growing even more that's why he chose to short the 30-year treasury bonds both to hedge his portfolio but also because he sees it as a profitable payoff so far it seems like Ackman was right with the 30-year treasury yield going from 4.17 to 4.3 percent this is also the same day when the stock market started this short-term bear trend moreover the Fed's recent actions support Ackman's stance as Jerome Powell just confirmed that the FED will keep rates elevated until inflation is brought back to their target 12 month core inflation is still elevated and there is substantial further ground to cover to get back to price stability we are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective however in spite of the recent short-term risk Bill Ackman is long-term bullish on the stock market as he believes that there will come a moment when we could all go in on equities I think once people realized the FED doesn't have to keep increasing rates and will soon be taking rates down that's kind of a Buy Signal for markets but they're not what they're not going to do is take it rates to four percent and see a good inflation print and then start taking interest rates down again they're not going to make that mistake to sum up Bill Ackman owns many solid businesses with stable growth and significant net profits still he believes that inflation will be sticky interest rates will remain elevated for the foreseeable future and we should be hedged in the equities market even if we're holding solid companies in our portfolio we should still be patient and not go all in just yet if you feel like you've learned anything of value please hit that like button and subscribe if you want to compare the Bill Ackman to another billionaire with a concentrated portfolio you can watch this following video please
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