저자: OvidiuInvesting진행자 · 외국인
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드러켄밀러 13F 포트폴리오 분석. 2024년 S&P500과 엔비디아 강세, AI 수요 지속을 근거로 엔비디아 콜옵션 확대와 마이크로소프트 비중 확대를 소개. 구글은 AI 전략 우려로 전량 매도했다고 설명. 영상 내 '~할 것이다' 식 미래 가격 예측은 명시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
The S&P has gained more than 22% and who would have thought that Tech would be the leader in January of 2024 everyone thought well it couldn't 2 years in a row you can't have Nvidia up 200% again and yet that is exactly what's happening the S&P 500 grew 16 out of the last 18 weeks offering a return of 24% the last time this happened was in 1971 but what's crazier is that at the beginning of the year the highest forecast from Wall Street analysts was for 5100 for the S&P 500 after only 2 months we've already surpassed that and this is mostly because of the insane AI growth but what if I told you that there is one man that predicted correctly the exact thing that's happening now Nvidia bottomed in October if this is a secular move if this thing is real you just don't have 10-month moves that's not how it works this guy is Stanley Druckenmiller an investor that beat the market for 30 years straight without losing money in a single year of course when we see that he was mentored by one of the most successful traders in history it all makes sense and today we'll go through each of his highest conviction stocks we'll see what new stocks he bought for 2024 and what major AI stock he just sold entirely and we're going to start with the new positions that Druckenmiller opened in the last quarter and here we have a huge new position that he opened in Nvidia and since he already owned Nvidia stock this time he bought a call option worth $242 million a call option is a bet that the stock price will rise but remember this was bought before 1st of January 2024 when the stock price of Nvidia was around $500 and in spite of the strong rally that the stock already had Druckenmiller made this bet because he's a firm believer in AI I do believe unlike crypto I think AI is real it could be as transformative as the Internet it's it's a huge thing now the stock is more than $800 so this was clearly a massive win but besides Nvidia he opened several small positions in companies like Palo Alto networks Marvel technology flex and even gold but these 1% positions are only starters aimed to get some exposure on a particular stock because Druckenmiller recommends a different way of investing for people that want to accumulate wealth my idea of risk control is a little non-conventional I like putting all my eggs in one basket and then watching the basket very carefully he believes that keeping a concentrated portfolio and taking big directional bets is the best way to make money in the stock market and he's not the only one that encourages this style of investing if you really know businesses you probably shouldn't own more than six of them I mean if you can identify six wonderful businesses that is all the diversification you need and you're going to make a lot of money so let's get into the top seven positions which combined make more than 60% of his portfolio at number 7 with 3.3% of his portfolio or $110 million invested is Vertiv Druckenmiller increased his position 22% in this company that sells digital infrastructure for data centers and it's been a business partner for both Nvidia and Intel and just like Nvidia the stock grew almost 50% in 2024 based on the AI demand and with improving operating margins as well as free cash flow margin the stock is now valued around 31 times price to earnings which is the most expensive it has been in years so be careful if you're considering buying this stock next at number six with 5.4% weight or $180 million invested we have Seagate technology this is a data storage company that struggled because of its cyclical business still it posted better than expected earnings and the stock recovered well as it grew 15% in 2024 next at number five with 7% weight or $230 million invested is Tech resources he increased his position in this Natural Resources company by 35% Tech resources has volatile Revenue because of the commodities prices but now Stanley Druckenmiller might be seeing Commodities recovering and considering that Tech is only trading around five times Enterprise Value divided by the Next 12 months EBITDA it seems attractive the stock is currently trading sideways and it is building a base in the last two years so a strong move one way or another might be next at number four with 11% weight or $235 million invested Stanley Druckenmiller has Eli Lily he decreased his position 11% in this growth pharmaceutical company that's expected to grow more than 20% for both 2024 as well as 2025 moreover the strong operating margins make the stock attractive however it had a phenomenal 33% run in the last two months and as a result it became really expensive as it now trades close to 18 times Enterprise Value divided by the next 12 month's Revenue which is close to the valuation of an AI company like Palantir which trades at 19 times at number three with 11% weight or $370 million invested we have Coupang this might be the next Amazon as it is the largest Online Marketplace in South Korea offering same day deliveries coupang Eats and even expending with a streaming service and a payment processing service this is a stock that Druckenmiller stuck with since 2021 when he first bought it moreover in spite of the stock going absolutely nowhere for the last two years he kept adding and in this quarter he increased his position 10% now Coupang finally surprised investors on the upside when they posted their earnings results for the last quarter beating the estimates for both Revenue as well as earnings per share as a result the stock grew an impressive 35% in February and it looks like the market is starting to see some of the value that Druckenmiller saw in the stock next at number two with 12% weight or $400 million invested is Microsoft Stanley Druckenmiller increased his position 7% in this blue chip stock but not for the reasons you might think even if he owned Microsoft stock since 2015 because of their Core Business Druckenmiller really likes the growth in the AI space after investing in openAI this is basically a bet on open Ai and Druckenmiller believes that they have a strong MOAT and a first mover's advantage this was evident as he bought Microsoft stock all throughout 2023 the stock performed very well as it sits now at its all-time highs however the stock is valued around 23 times Enterprise Value divided by the next 12 months EBITDA but in the context of The Magnificent 7 it's not the most expensive with Tesla and Nvidia being the most expensive stocks and speaking of Nvidia at number one the biggest position in Stanley Druckenmiller's portfolio with a massive 16% weight or $550 million invested is of course the poster child of this massive AI demand Nvidia with its data center seeing grow out of this world the growth forecasts have been revised upwards all throughout the year in 2023 Nvidia grew its revenue 126% and its earnings per share grew from $1.8 to $12 moreover the revenue growth expected for 2024 is a staggering 81% now of course that the stock reflected insane trend with the stock growing 230% but Stanley Druckenmiller still sees upside potential for the stock as he believes that these strong moves tend to last longer than a year if this is a secular move if this thing is real you just don't have 10 month moves that's not how it works even the DOT COM bubble lasted two 2 and 1/2 years for many of the guts of the internet it lasted four years however there is still one AI stock that he completely sold off because he sees them as lagging in the AI battle this stock is Google for which he sold his $150 million stake after buying it just 3 months before this was actually the second time he liquidated his Google position in 2023 showcasing an important rule that Druckenmiller follows I changed my mind a lot so it's always dangerous for anybody to listen to me because I can be in love with something on Friday and then on Wednesday I'm actually short it selling Google stock is in contrast to what what other billionaires did as for instance Bill Ackman has Google as the only AI stock in his portfolio and the selling comes in spite of its Core Business being one of the best businesses Druckenmiller ever saw their core search business is literally the best business I've ever seen but they keep trying all this experimental stuff that challenges shareholder value this shows that Druckenmiller has a stronger focus on Google's AI expansion and he cares more about where the company will be in the future than where the business is today you always have to sort of imagine the world the way it's going to be in 18 to 24 months as opposed to now if you buy it now you're buying into every single fad that was it from me by the way the YouTube algorithm really believes that you would enjoy this next video
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