저자: RayDalio인용해설—영상출연자소속미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
Dalio를 인용해 미국 재정적자·부채(34조달러 돌파, 이자부담 증가)와 인플레이션 재발, 정부 부채로 인한 달러 가치 하락 위험을 경고. 2024년 경기는 급격한 붕괴보다 완만한 둔화 시나리오로 제시. 대응으로 AI 성장 테마 분산투자, 금 소량 보유, 높은 금리의 현금 옵션 제시.
다듬은 글
for next year are you optimistic about the global economy or pessimistic pessimistic analysts expect as much as six state cuts for 2024 and some are already claiming victory in the fed's fight against inflation they know that inflation has been defeated they know that it's come down considerably they know it's going to go down more however billionaire Ray Dalo issued a warning about a major risk that seems to be overlooked by the market we are at a point in which we are borrowing money to pay debt service so why is he pessimistic for 2024 well simply put because the US is broke but to understand why that is we need to look at the new Financial era that we just entered this new era is characterized by a few factors that the market pretty much ignored during the last decades firstly we have inflation back in the picture after several decades when it was not a factor I think the most important thing to look at is the real interest rate in other words the interest rate relative to inflation moreover considering that the globalization and investment in green energy will remain inflationary it seems like the fed's target of 2% will act more as a floor than a ceiling secondly the interest rate matters again as this is the primary level of monetary policy to adjust the business cycle and the stock market valuations the third factor is the monetary policy which will likely be slower to cut interest rates and quicker to tighten today the economy and the markets are driven by the central banks in the past downturns in equities were mild and shortlived because policy makers could step in but now they can't really intervene as easily to support growth because inflation might reappear but besides all these important shifts in the economy there is one indicator in particular that stands out and makes R Dalo worry and that's the governmental debt we are at a point in which we are borrowing money to pay debt service the level of us governmental debt has never been so high outside of wartime and never so dependent on the Federal Reserve to fund it and you might be wondering how the FED funds it well to fully understand this we need to go back to 2020 what's happening in the economy is that a lot of money was sent out in the form of checks and the like and went out to a lot of people and so there was the household sector did well because the government sector did poorly they got themselves in deeper debt intentionally so that the household sector in the business sector could be better off but where did the government get this money from because at the beginning of 2020 the government was already spending more than its income so how can you spend even more unlike me and you the government has an extra way in which they can borrow money the only difference between the government is that the government has a central bank that can print print money they can print more dollars out of th air and while this seems like a good short-term fix it comes at a really high cost so debt is the same but you print the money and you devalue the money and that produces inflation and we can see it in the Federal Reserves balance sheet this really took off in 2008 when the government desperately needed liquidity but now since 2020 the quantity of dollars printed by the Federal Reserve more than doubled that is why we saw people use alternative ways to protect their net worth like investing in cryptocurrencies which are usually kept but why did the strongest economy in the world choose to devaluate its currency well because the US is broke in the last 50 years the US made more money that it spent only 5 years so besides these five years every single year the US spends more than it earns the US is forced to borrow money either from foreign investors or from their own Federal Reserve and they did this again and again and again they did it so much that the United States has now a debt of more than $34 trillion well US debt topping over 34 trillion for the first time ever this coming as a deadline looms for Congress to reach a deal in order to avert a government shutdown it is so bad that it got to a point where it surpassed the maximum level Allowed by the law the debt ceiling is the amount that treasury can buy borrow on behalf of the public but it got so bad that the US suspended its Deb ceiling in 2019 and then it raised it in 2021 only to hit it again by 2023 now it has been suspended again until January 1st 2025 as a way to avoid a default by the United States but is the US the only country that's running at a large deficit well no compared to the annual GDP the US public debt is 120% in Europe This percentage is around 75 China has 80% while the Undisputed leader is Japan with 200% what I see is most democracies are having elevated fiscal deficits I worry about it I think it's going to be a crisis in the future but this presents a high risk for the US for two reasons firstly every year a part of this debt becomes due around $7.6 trillion will become due in 2024 which will be refinanced at a higher interest rate secondly the US has to pay interest on its debt as the debt grows so does the interest payments especially in a higher rate environment when you keep having debt growth faster than income growth then that means that you have Debt Service encroaching on your spending and as that happens and you want to keep spending at the same level there is the need to get more and more into debt and the proof of this deterioration came on August 1st 2023 when fit downgraded the US credit rating they anticipate fiscal deterioration over the next years a high in growing government debt burden and the erosion of governance R Wars that the increasing level of debt and the high interest rate payments might be the start of a debt squeeze and that the US government must change course now as we look forward we have a debt problem because you can't keep adding to debt faster than you add to income the more these issues persist the more difficult it will be for the US to borrow money because if the debt becomes too large compared to income creditors will have two options either stop borrowing money to the US which is a buyer strike or ask for a bigger reward which means a higher interest rate this might Force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates as a way to attract new creditors but as of right now even if Dalo doesn't predict the recession he argues that this scenario is that of a gradual economic slowdown that is a formula for a gradually weakening economy not a big break in the economy a slowing of that economy I think that's what we're seeing but that's enough negativity for now because there are still ways to turn this ship around and one of the solutions comes from the CEO of Black Rock the only answer to that is growth okay if we have 3% growth we're going to be able to solve some of that if we have under 3% growth for a long period of time the the interest payments as a part of our budget is going to overwhelm us but how can the us grow 3% when the official estimates are for 2% and here's where one of the biggest technological Transformations might help you see just like Stanley draon Miller black rock or Vanguard ralo also argues that the AI has tremendous growth potential the one thing that excites me about the future is the inventiveness the way and it relates of course to artificial intelligence but the way that we can use systemized learning so how can we invest during these volatile times Rio gives us three things to do firstly AI is what Black Rock calls a mega force which is a long-term driver of growth that could be uncorrelated to the micro cycle this means that even in a bad microeconomic environment the AI sector might still grow so there will be many opportunities for stock picking secondly Dalo argues that we should diversify divers ation can reduce your risk without reducing your return for diversification he says we can even buy gold but not necessarily as a way to create better returns but as a way to protect our capital I would also say that I would have uh a bit of gold a bit of gold is something that is a very effective diversifier and so it's almost a bit of an insurance policy lastly ralo argues that now cash is a good option because of the high interest rates while stocks will not have the same strong returns from the last 60 years still using an investing strategy which means taking an active approach to investing will be needed in the future and will probably offer the best returns to sum up we need to understand where Ray Doo comes from you see from a fund's perspective it's all about keeping Capital safe the never lose money rule that Warren Buffett made famous but for us retail investors we play by a different Playbook so in 2024 let's use the volatility to invest in the best performing companies because if a company performs well the stop will follow if you feel like you've learned anything of value or you want to see more 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