저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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연준이 금리를 너무 늦게 인하해 미국 경제가 경기침체(hard landing)로 갈 수 있다고 주장. 빌 애크먼은 부채 재융자 부담과 기업 실적 둔화를 근거로 제시. 보유 종목 유니버설뮤직은 구독 매출 둔화로 22% 하락했지만 장기 가치는 유효하다고 주장. 신규 편입 종목 나이키·브룩필드, 기존 보유 구글·힐튼·치폴레·레스토랑브랜즈 등 포트폴리오 전반에 대한 장기 낙관 유지.
다듬은 글
Bill Ackman predicts that the Federal Reserve is making a big mistake that might send the US economy into a recession and today we will see his full $16 billion portfolio why his number one stock crumbled and what two new stocks he bought in order to bounce back the US economy is very strong inflation continues to come down as the economy grew 2.8% in the last quarter and the unemployment remains one of the lowest in the developed countries at the same time salaries keep growing and everything is pointing towards a soft Landing it is a soft landing and it's I think it's has been achieved so it's really coming together in a nice way and we think the soft Landing is firmly in place however Bill Ackman disagrees for the last 9 months Bill Ackman predicted that the Federal Reserve must cut interest rates sooner than people anticipate we're betting that the Federal Reserve is going to have to cut rates more quickly than people expect his argument is that the debt refinancing will become a nightmare what's going to be interesting is to see what happens when people have to reprice their debt and I think that can have sort of a cliff-like effect and you're certainly seeing that in real estate but now that interest rates were not lowered Bill Ackman has a new prediction that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates when it is already too late and what would this mean for the economy well there's only one possible scenario a Hard Landing in which the US economy goes into a recession it's a no-brainer that the Fed's behind the curve probably something between a hard landing and a modestly hard Landing is what they would like but how could Bill Ackman be so sure about this macroeconomic weakness and the truth is that Bill Ackman has a unique way of gathering economic data we are sitting on Boards of directors you're following lots of different businesses you're learning about the economy by virtue of the day-to-day business experience you know Buffett should have a very you know good view on the economy by virtue of sitting on top of Berkshire he gets the numbers every day he's seeing what's going on and everything moreover here's the chief investment officer at Bill Ackman's fund the Pershing Square explaining how strong the US economy truly is if you look at what companies are saying things are starting to slow not necessarily to recessionary level but people are starting to say that they really don't need to hire companies are not talking really about inflation interestingly anymore and this economic slowdown has the biggest consequences in the stock market this was the case for the US jobs report which last month came in weaker than expected and sent the volatility index to the highest value since March 2020 but besides weaker macroeconomic data the other thing that the stock market punishes are companies that report small misses on key business metrics a great example is Universal Music Group which is the number one holding for Pershing Square the company missed the estimates for subscription Revenue growth and the stock crumbled 22% that is why at the middle of August Bill Ackman's fund was losing money returning - 2.2% but the good news is that most of the times a miss on the reported metrics has a very small effect on the intrinsic value meaning that the overall business is still solid and that's when long-term investors like Bill Ackman can often times buy a company cheaper than what it is worth we get involved in cases where a great business has kind of made a big mistake or they we have a company that's kind of lost its way but it's recoverable and then we try to be helpful in fixing the company but the falling price of the stock is not the only thing that Bill Ackman looks for we look for sort of these non-disruptable businesses a business where you can kind of close your eyes stock market shuts for a decade and you know that 10 years from now it's going to be a more valuable more profitable company with these two principles in mind he opened two new positions in the second quarter he invested $229 million into Nike the stock performed badly in the last two years as it sits 50% below its all-time highs moreover the company is going through a difficult period as they just cut their guidance and predict that their sales will drop 10% still the company generated a ton of free cash flow which is Ackman's favorite metric to value a company the second stock that he bought is Brookfield Corporation this is a Canadian investment management firm that activates primarily in real estates but with a diversified portfolio into renewable energy infrastructure and private equities now let's get into Bill Ackman's full portfolio as we later see that he sold big chunks of his top holdings on the seventh position he has Howard Hughes this is a real estate developer that Bill Ackman firstly bought in 2010 and held for more than 13 years the sixth position is Canadian Pacific the company runs the biggest Railway in North America and Bill Ackman argues that Canadian Pacific's network in conjunction with a top tier management team will deliver solid earnings growth the next two positions are both fast food restaurants the reason why Ackman loves investing in restaurants is that even if the economy slows down these two stocks will not be affected in a recession or environment you know historically people don't stop eating out but they might adjust from the sit down restaurant to a fast food environment or a place the fast food if you will the quick service restaurants have generally done well in recessionary environments on top of that Bill Ackman argues that he has never lost money by investing in restaurants our best track record is in restaurants we've never lost money we've only made a fortune interestingly investing restaurants as a result the fifth position is restaurant Brands this company owns Brands like Tim Horton Popey's or Burger King in spite of having operating profits and solid growth Ackman argues that Restaurant Brands is trading at a discount compared to its competitors the fourth position is one of the all time best performers for Bill Ackman who owns the stock since 2016 the stock is Chipotle which had a phenomenal performance and as a result the stock became really expensive because of the rich valuation combined with the fact that its CEO left suddenly to join Starbucks the stock is now 20% lower than its recent highs moreover Bill Ackman sold 20% of his Chipotle position but he remains bullish on the company's future the third position is the luxury hotel chain Hilton the stock performed very well in 2024 and Ackman predicts that strong revenue growth combined with excellent cost control will lead to high incremental margins and substantial capital returns and speaking of good capital returns the second position in Ackman's portfolio is the only software stock that he owns we have tended to stay away from companies that are technology companies because technology companies generally the world is such a dynamic place that someone's always working on a better version but to mitigate the potential disruption this company will invest $50 billion in 2024 into its AI development the stock is Google and they recently unveiled the AI overviews which are AI powered summary responses these AI investments in conjunction with a solid core business give Bill Ackman confidence in the future of Google moreover he holds a contrarian view which is that Google will not get disrupted by ChatGPT our view based on work we had done and talked to Industry experts is that we felt their AI capabilities were if anything potentially greater than Microsoft Chat GPT lastly the number one holding with a portfolio weight of 35% is Universal Music the stock dropped 22% after the company's subscription revenue growth decelerated but the reason why Ackman prefers owning Universal Music Group over a company like Spotify doesn't have any anything to do with the business metrics instead it's all about who owns the music if you think about Spotify it's the business of distributing someone else's IP right it's a distribution channel it's not the content I'd rather own the the unique content than the distributor of the content to sum up Bill Ackman estimates that the US economy will slow down and that the FED will be late to react if you want to compare Bill Ackman's predictions to a growth investor you can watch this next video where Cathie Wood gives her predictions regarding interest rates and the stock market.
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