저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프 재선 이후 미국 경제·증시에 새 시대가 올 것이라 보며, 감세·규제완화·반도체 자국생산 정책이 성장을 촉진한다고 주장. 주식은 종목 선별 중심으로 AI를 잘 활용하는 기업을 선호하고 매그니피센트7 편중에서 벗어나라고 조언. 채권은 금리 상승으로 회피, 비트코인은 변동성·투기성 때문에 비중을 작게 두고 금을 더 선호하되 둘을 함께 보유하라고 언급.
다듬은 글
legendary investor Ray Dalo is usually pessimistic about the economy but this changed when Trump was elected as the next US president because with Trump in office Dalo predicts a new era for the US economy and of course the stock market the stock market tends to perform well when the political environment is stable and predictable and following the November election ction the US has Clarity fortunately we had a situation where there's a fairly clear mandate and they were not arguing about about the elections but besides Clarity the new leadership proposed several reforms for a strong US economy you're going to see the country run a lot more like a capitalist business in which um imagine a new leader comes in and you have an old company that's not doing so well maybe that's IBM or Boeing or something and they're coming in and they're doing a renovation however while this plan promises corporate measures it is created with a unique objective in mind the well-being of the US economy and this will lead to some serious reforms we're going to have for uh 20% of our uh key chips have got to be produced in the United States by 2030 how do you do that that's connected to an energy plan so there are a number of initiatives here economists argue that these changes will result in the US economy growing faster you're going to see deregulation you're going to see uh changes in legislation you're going to see an emphasis for it to be uh productive and to be effective moreover Dalo argues that most of the promised ref forms can be implemented quickly I believe that this is this plan has been well in the works that this for for quite a time and I think that they're going to be able to hit the ground running so far we've seen how Trump's approach could boost economic growth and that is also felt in the stock market after Trump won the election the stock market immediately jumped besides companies like Tesla that might have a clear Catalyst the whole Market grew and the reason is that Trump doesn't only want the US government to run efficiently but he's also very supportive of the big us companies he was the one that cut taxes in 2017 for both individuals and US companies now he promised that he will keep taxes low and possibly even lower them again this is good news for the stock market since a lower tax means higher profits and if there is one thing that Wall Street loves is higher profits there'll be less taxes um it's more capitalist it's good for the markets um there'll be more efficiencies it's and speaking on the equities Market Dalo argues that this is a market for stock Pickers meaning that buying individual stocks instead of going for indexes will be the best way to beat the market then when I look at equities I think I have to look at the specific equities uh the idea of talking about Equity markets as a whole is an obsolete idea and of course the growth story remains about AI but it is not necessarily a hunt for the perfect pick and shovel like it was with Nvidia but more about which companies are implementing AI successfully I believe that really it's the most ADV greatest advantages are going to be on those who use it well and and we're not paying enough attention to that so look for companies that are utilizing AI with great success to attract more customers increase their revenues or cut costs additionally Dalo says that getting away from the super scalers like the magnific if on seven might be a good idea to beat the market so finding those that are the beneficiaries versus those that are the uh detractors the ones who are losing but also uh getting away from really the super scalers and focusing on that I think is important but a market that is even more telling is the bond market because treasury yields grew after the election and if treasury yelds are high generally bonds don't do very well and that is why Ray Dalo doesn't want to own any bonds so I'm um you know sort of anti- debt assets like bonds and so on and I prefer the other but do you know what else happens when the GDP is expected to grow 5% investors are expecting inflation higher than the fed's target of 2% and that is why cryptocurrencies are on a strong bull Trend so is it time to add Bitcoin into your portfolio cryptocurrencies have been on a te following the elections Bitcoin surpassed $100,000 and new crypto coins surge every week and that's because investors see Bitcoin and the likes as a hedge to inflation not to many mention that Trump turned into a supporter of Bitcoin as a result Ray Doo himself bought Bitcoin I have a small percentage of my portfolio in crypto still he wants that Bitcoin remains volatile does it correlate with inflation does it correlate with those things no it doesn't really not well it's still largely a speculative vehicle and for this reason ralo prefers gold as a better alternative to hedge a portfolio gold is something that if you look at how it behaves in relationship to inflation and also um interest rates it behaves in a way that's more understandable than Bitcoin moreover he Compares Bitcoin to gold from the perspective of serving as a currency Reserve it's not likely to be a reserve for a currency okay it won't work what is the reserve gold is still uh it's the third largest reserve currency the US dollar the Euro gold and then Japanese Yen so I prefer gold still after comparing them he argues that the easiest thing for investors is having both gold and Bitcoin into their portfolios some of both should be in the portfolio don't be so fanatical that you're just having one and not the other to sum up besides hedging our portfolios with Bitcoin and gold Ray Dalo advises to stay away from bonds and invest in US equities here we should look for companies that utilize AI well and it might be time to diversify away from the Magnificent 7 and lastly this remains a market for stock Pickers finding good undervalued companies will yield better results than just buying and holding an index fund that was it from me if you feel like you've learned anything of value or you want to see more videos like this one please hit that like button and subscribe
Comments 0